Burkina Faso's Kabore faces mounting public pressures

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Reconciliation ◽  
Reconciliation Project ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Despite enhanced military efforts, jihadist groups are becoming increasingly brazen in their attacks, while labour and other social unrest is also challenging the authorities. President Roch Marc Christian Kabore and his governing coalition are facing heightened scrutiny ahead of presidential and legislative elections set for late 2020. Impacts The government will try to hold back the most militant union demands, given growing public impatience with their excessive expectations. With the high-profile coup trial over, opposition parties and civil society groups may call for a wider national reconciliation project. Despite the government's unpopularity, a divided opposition will struggle to capitalise in the short term.

Guinea’s constitutional crisis may escalate further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) coalition, a grouping of opposition parties and civil society groups, has vowed to continue protests until the government drops its plans. A referendum over a new constitution could be held as early as December alongside planned legislative elections. Impacts The crisis could put the economy under growing pressure, resulting in reduced international investment and potential aid freezes. The worsening economic climate could see public-sector strikes intensify, particularly in the education sector. Persistent protests may trigger defections from the governing Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) and its allies. A potential compromise is that Conde pursues a new constitution as a legacy project, while agreeing to abandon any third-term bid.

Third-term bid by Guinea's Conde will widen fractures

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Significance With legislative elections pending since January, current lawmakers’ mandate was controversially extended following a decree by Conde. The opposition and civil society groups believe that the government is stalling as it attempts to keep the incumbent in power. Impacts The government will prioritise social and infrastructure programmes, including improved energy supply, to try to prevent further protests. Any concrete indications of forthcoming constitutional changes will prompt protests from UFDG-aligned militants. Strong demand for bauxite, and increased production, should help the economy grow by approximately 6% in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

Malaysian opposition grouping unlikely to oust Najib

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Cooperative measures among Malaysian opposition parties and civil society groups. Significance A grouping of opposition critics of Prime Minister Najib Razak's government has announced a series of 'roadshow' protests including a public 'Save Malaysia' protest meeting on March 28, to be attended by various leading political figures. This follows the March 4 signing of the Citizens' Declaration, the latest challenge to Najib and his government in the wake of the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) controversy. Impacts The government will probably permit protests for now, to gauge their degree of support. The Save Malaysia group will seek thousands of public signatories of the Declaration. Political proxy fighting at the state level could unnerve investors.

South Africa's banks could face further political push

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Deputy Minister ◽  
Passenger Rail ◽  
The Government ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Mkhwebane's proposal that the SARB should promote broad-based economic growth, rather than focus on inflation and the currency, dominated debates ahead of the ANC's policy conference between June 30-July 5. Subsequently, the ruling party determined that the SARB should be nationalised, while re-affirming its constitutionally guaranteed independence and also demanding the government set up a state bank within six months. Impacts Damaging financial revelations at state-owned enterprises such as Eskom could undermine the impetus for a state-owned bank. Opposition parties could mobilise with civil society groups to try force Mkhwebane’s resignation. Ongoing corruption allegations surrounding the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA) could implicate the deputy minister of finance.

CAR election delay may weaken president

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Central African Republic ◽  
Constitutional Amendment ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dynamics ◽  
Force Majeure ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Political dynamics around upcoming elections. Significance The Central African Republic (CAR) is considering a constitutional amendment that would extend President Faustin-Archange Touadera’s mandate should elections need to be postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for December 2020 and the ruling party insists on filling a vacuum in the constitution, which does not anticipate election delays in the case of force majeure. However, opposition parties and civil society see the initiative as unjustified and potentially detrimental to stability. Impacts Election delays could facilitate embezzlement of international funds already disbursed for election preparations. A postponement might also further delay implementation of key peace deal provisions, including security and justice measures. Political turmoil and socio-economic disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak could provoke violence in the capital Bangui.

Mozambican government could ease IMF fears over debt

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Capital Gains Tax ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Democratic Movement ◽  
Ongoing Controversy ◽  
Peace Settlement ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government

Significance As Mozambique’s government struggles to deal with an ongoing controversy over 2 billion dollars in secret loans and unpaid debts, the government hopes new gas investments and the prospects of a negotiated peace settlement with RENAMO show Maputo is turning a corner. However, the government must convince international donors that it can reorganise state finances and placate international bondholders, as it tries to secure new IMF financing later this year. Impacts Several debt-laden Mozambican banks could close if further outstanding payments are missed. New gas agreements will provide a capital gains tax windfall but not in the short term. A failure to push for judicial prosecutions of implicated ministers and state officials could prompt civil society protests. As FRELIMO’s popularity weakens further, support could increase for opposition parties RENAMO and the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM).

Zambian constitution changes will weaken its democracy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constitutional Changes ◽  
Independent Institutions ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance These contentious changes will strengthen the executive and weaken oversight from both the legislature and judiciary. Opposition to the amendments is growing from independent institutions, opposition parties and civil society groups. Impacts Promised new fiscal consolidation measures will be met with renewed scepticism, especially given the proposed constitutional changes. Dissatisfaction with rising living costs raises the risk of increased social unrest, threatening Lungu and the PF's 2021 re-election hopes. Donor concerns over a crackdown against opposition figures and worsening corruption will prompt growing Western criticism of Lungu.

South African government’s GBV plans may disappoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
South African ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Gender Based Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Structure ◽  
National Strategic Plan ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gender Based

Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.

Uganda’s opposition will gain ground despite poll loss

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The opposition has rejected the results and is preparing legal challenges to Museveni’s victory. Impacts NRM internal cohesion will fray as Museveni becomes a more polarising figure in national politics. The NRM will increasingly try to co-opt opponents to neutralise the growing momentum and collaboration among opposition parties. The government will likely launch developmental efforts to tackle youth unemployment and thus avert unrest.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

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