Mozambican government could ease IMF fears over debt

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Capital Gains Tax ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Democratic Movement ◽  
Ongoing Controversy ◽  
Peace Settlement ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government

Significance As Mozambique’s government struggles to deal with an ongoing controversy over 2 billion dollars in secret loans and unpaid debts, the government hopes new gas investments and the prospects of a negotiated peace settlement with RENAMO show Maputo is turning a corner. However, the government must convince international donors that it can reorganise state finances and placate international bondholders, as it tries to secure new IMF financing later this year. Impacts Several debt-laden Mozambican banks could close if further outstanding payments are missed. New gas agreements will provide a capital gains tax windfall but not in the short term. A failure to push for judicial prosecutions of implicated ministers and state officials could prompt civil society protests. As FRELIMO’s popularity weakens further, support could increase for opposition parties RENAMO and the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM).

Investment pledges could transform Egypt's economy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offering ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Capital Gains Tax ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Public Offering ◽  
Investment Growth

Subject Egypt's business climate. Significance After several years of upheaval, Egypt is experiencing greater political stability and improved economic governance. This is creating a more comfortable domestic investment climate, encouraging consumption and unleashing pent-up demand. Yet the challenge of attracting foreign investors remains, particularly given pressures on the foreign exchange markets and energy sector. Impacts The government should ensure short-term stability, but this is unlikely to last in the longer term absent a political accommodation. Recent stock market activity signals strong appetite for initial public offering (IPOs). The suspension of capital gains tax indicates flexibility and pragmatism of policymakers towards business challenges. Gulf and Chinese investors will not be deterred by human rights issues or rising terrorism incidents. Rapid foreign investment growth will bolster the legitimacy of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

Burkina Faso's Kabore faces mounting public pressures

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Reconciliation ◽  
Reconciliation Project ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Despite enhanced military efforts, jihadist groups are becoming increasingly brazen in their attacks, while labour and other social unrest is also challenging the authorities. President Roch Marc Christian Kabore and his governing coalition are facing heightened scrutiny ahead of presidential and legislative elections set for late 2020. Impacts The government will try to hold back the most militant union demands, given growing public impatience with their excessive expectations. With the high-profile coup trial over, opposition parties and civil society groups may call for a wider national reconciliation project. Despite the government's unpopularity, a divided opposition will struggle to capitalise in the short term.

Mozambique will face renewed transparency demands

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Internal Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
International Donors ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Subject Embattled FRELIMO. Significance The IMF said on April 18 that Mozambique’s debt-to-GDP ratio was expected to reach 130.3% in 2022. Reducing the country’s unsustainable debt depends on a resumption of donor aid and increased investment, but an impasse with international donors over undisclosed loans is undermining the prospects of both. Meanwhile, the ruling FRELIMO party and President Filipe Nyusi are under mounting internal pressure following a damaging by-election defeat and revelations regarding Nyusi’s role in the debt scandal. Impacts Economic growth will likely fall further until gas investments come onstream after 2023. Civil society criticism of the government will mount as further revelations emerge of state complicity in repression. Government finances will be further restricted as key recurring infrastructure investments are delayed, dampening growth prospects.

South African government’s GBV plans may disappoint

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
South African ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Gender Based Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Structure ◽  
National Strategic Plan ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gender Based

Significance Although President Cyril Ramaphosa has publicly committed to increase funding to combat what he calls South Africa’s “second pandemic”, there is a lack of transparency in how the government disburses funds linked to its National Strategic Plan (NSP) on Gender-based Violence and Femicide. Impacts Civil society groups will increase pressure on the government to make expenditure on GBV programmes more transparent. A new private-sector fund to contribute to the NSP has received strong early support, but its management structure is opaque. High levels of GBV will not only have significant humanitarian and social costs but may deter much-needed foreign investment.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Indonesia’s new investment ministry faces headwinds

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.

New Romanian coalition will retreat from reform

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government

Significance This autumn, bitter conflict between the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the Save Romania Union (USR) ended a brief period of centre-right rule, after years of domination by the Social Democrats (PSD). Former army chief Nicolae Ciuca heads the government, which the PSD dominates alongside a much-weakened PNL. Impacts The government may struggle to persuade a suspicious populace to back vaccination, given previous PSD reluctance for anti-COVID-19 measures. The pandemic may deter civil society from mobilising against abuses of power to the extent it did during the last PSD government. The government's dilemma will be curbing the justice system's independence without provoking a strong EU reaction.

Zambia’s Patriotic Front faces major election test

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Chief Justice ◽  
International Donors ◽  
The Government

Significance The country’s economy has been in decline for some time, and the government is increasingly plagued by corruption scandals. Impacts A contested election will likely further undermine the increasingly fraught relationship between Zambia and international donors. New government borrowing to fund populist policies will further complicate economic reform prospects. The replacement of recently deceased Chief Justice Irene Mambilima may become politicised given the courts’ role in resolving poll disputes.

Modi's regulatory crackdown on NGOs could backfire

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Similar Action ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Perceived Ability ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
The Government

Significance In April, similar action was taken against nearly 9,000 other non-profits. These moves are part of intensifying clashes between the government and civil society. Many NGOs are vocal opponents of Modi's key policies, and the government is frustrated at their perceived ability to harness popular opposition and use the judiciary to stall key projects. Impacts Government efforts on coal (and to a lesser extent nuclear energy) will still encounter NGO resistance. The Supreme Court may become embroiled in the NGO-government clash, portending costly and lengthy battles for investors. Western governments are likely to be more sensitive to Modi's regulatory crackdown, risking hurdles in improving diplomatic ties.

Politics set to slow Pakistan's divestment drive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Core Condition

Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document