Nigeria’s Buhari will sustain protectionist course

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Electricity Supply ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Limited Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Policy Direction ◽  
Recent Policy

Subject Nigerian economic policy. Significance Predicting the policy direction of President Muhammadu Buhari’s second term appears complicated given inconsistencies in key appointments to his administration. His new cabinet is composed of political loyalists unlikely to oppose his protectionist agenda. Conversely, Buhari has revamped his economic team to include free marketeers and staunch critics of his economic record thus far. However, recent policy measures suggest that the latter will have limited effect on the president’s underlying agenda. Impacts Plans to comply with OPEC production cuts will further worsen the outlook for foreign reserves and the naira. The slight acceleration of GDP growth to 2.3% this year may not be sustained into 2020 if protectionist policies persist. Improvements in the overall business environment ranking mask ongoing weakness in crucial indicators such as electricity supply.

Papua New Guinea may encounter 'resource curse'

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Resource Curse ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Recent Policy ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Rating agency Moody’s on March 23 shifted Papua New Guinea (PNG) to 'negative watch', a further indication of the economic challenges facing the re-elected Peter O’Neill government as it prepares to host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November this year. PNG in February suffered its largest earthquake for nearly a century in areas surrounding the largest resource projects in the country. Impacts Despite a planned major expansion in LNG production, recent policy decisions suggest a troubled business environment. Reversals in economic policy, combined with the earthquake, will further depress GDP growth. Prime Minister Peter O’Neill is weaving together a large coalition which should cement his position until at least after APEC. Foreign exchange shortages will harm growth and discourage investment, due to fears that firms cannot pay dividends to foreign shareholders.

Curbing debt while targeting growth will test China

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Corporate Debt ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Equipment Manufacturing ◽  
Automobile Sales ◽  
Manufacturing Growth

Significance Modest progress is underway in rebalancing towards more consumption and less reliance on exports and investment. GDP growth is on target, helped by buoyant housing and automobile sales. Many of these have been financed by debt though, adding to concerns that prioritising GDP growth has left the economy too reliant on credit. The debt burden is a concern, particularly corporate debt. Impacts The renminbi is at a six-year low and higher US rates could weaken it further, spooking markets. Foreign reserves are at a five-year low; while import cover is still strong, eroding macro fundamentals are a concern. Strong high-tech and equipment manufacturing growth must be built upon to develop a larger and more sophisticated private sector. The focus on growth targets set in 2010 risks debt resolution costs rising as they are deferred.

Taiwan government will show resolve on economy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Labour Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Plan ◽  
Inflationary Pressure ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Domestic Policies ◽  
The Government

Subject Economic policy in Taiwan. Significance The government earlier this month announced an eight-year special budget for infrastructure worth 880 billion Taiwan dollars (29 billion US dollars). It is part of an economic plan in February that aims to boost GDP growth over the next four years, signalling a push to address livelihood issues by the government of President Tsai Ing-wen, whose public support has evaporated since she took office last May. The plan's announcement follows closely on the heels of the introduction of a five-day work week in January. The controversial amendment to the labour law shortening the work week indicates a new willingness by the Tsai administration to weather public discontent in pressing forward with its economic agenda. Impacts GDP growth will get a fiscal boost, but the targeted 2.5-3.0% may still prove too ambitious. The labour reform will create inflationary pressure. Taiwan's export dependence means that domestic policies can only go so far; external demand will be crucial.

Mexico’s orthodox budget will face pressures

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Refinancing Costs

Significance Mexico’s new government submitted its 2019 economic package to Congress on December 15, including the budget and revenue legislation, and macroeconomic assumptions and projections. Aggregate figures show no departure from the fiscal orthodoxy of recent decades. The proposed spending reshuffle is nevertheless significant, involving ambitious projects that may bring undue fiscal pressures. Impacts AMLO will pursue new investment projects and social programmes as soon as possible. Further jolts to investor confidence would increase country risk perceptions, pushing up debt refinancing costs. Additional economic policy measures seeking to boost long-term growth are likely in 2019.

Mexico’s 2020 budget looks highly optimistic

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Limited Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
National Economic

Significance The package comprises the national budget and revenue legislation, as well as key domestic and international macroeconomic assumptions and projections. Impacts Even if GDP growth remains poor, fiscal loosening is unlikely. The central bank may lower interest rates further to help boost the economy, but the effect of a monetary push would be relatively minor. Major projects such as the Maya Train may have some regional impact but will have a limited effect on national economic growth. Legislators may increase the expected oil price for 2020 to boost spending in some areas without increasing the fiscal deficit target.

Poor outlook drives fiscal expansion in Argentina

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The Government ◽  
Nominal Anchor

Significance Soon after taking office, President Mauricio Macri announced a "rain of new investments" from foreign companies attracted by the business-friendly tone set by his administration. Despite key economic policy measures, such as the removal of foreign exchange controls, the unfreezing of utilities tariffs and the agreement with holdout creditors, there have been no signs of significant medium- or long-term foreign investment inflows, raising doubts over Macri's promise of an economic rebound in the second half. Impacts Expansionary measures will make it harder to achieve fiscal goals, especially as tax collection is rising at rates well below inflation. While the downturn may ease inflation, the temptation to use the exchange rate as a nominal anchor would worsen competitiveness problems. The government faces a difficult dilemma: expansionary measures will help it in mid-term elections, but delay economic stabilisation.

The Gambia's reform programme could prove elusive

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Supply ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Power Outages ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Intensity ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Policy Direction ◽  
Public Criticism

Significance The dismissals follow growing public criticism of the lack of urgency and policy direction of the new administration and came on the same day Barrow concluded a three-day retreat for his cabinet, as part of a broader process to develop his administration’s “development blueprint”. The retreat was held amid a lingering security threat, rising inflation (currently at almost 9%) and growing problems of power outages with electricity supply dropping from 80 megawatts to 40 megawatts. Impacts The government’s economic programme is unlikely to deter large numbers of young Gambian migrants fleeing to Europe. A poorly managed army reform could stoke low-intensity insurgency along The Gambia’s border with southern Senegal. One-party domination of the executive and legislature will raise fears of potential democratic backsliding.

Policy turmoil in China: a barrier for FDI flows?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi Wei Su ◽  
Xian-Li Meng ◽  
Ran Tao ◽  
Muhammad Umar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
The Us

PurposeThis research examines the dynamic interrelationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and the inflows of foreign direct investment (IFDI) in China.Design/methodology/approachThis research used the Granger causality and sub-sample time-varying rolling window causality method.FindingsThe empirical results reveal that EPU tends to have a negative impact on the IFDI in most periods that have been taken into consideration. However, there has been a positive relationship observed between the periods of the US subprime crisis. That is to say that the uncertainty of the Chinese economic policy does not always impede the IFDI. These results are supported by the general equilibrium model, which states that there are certain influences that come into play when moving from EPU to IFDI. On the other hand, the IFDI exert a positive influence on EPU during times of economic crisis and trade war, which indicates that the uncertainty in the economy may increase due to the sudden soar of foreign investment.Originality/valueDuring tense global trade situations and complicated economic scenarios, the results suggest the Chinese government should dedicate itself to expanding its initiatives to open up and improve the domestic business environment in order to increase the foreign investors' confidence and prevent the decline in the IFDI. In addition to this, it also suggests that multinational companies pay attention to the policy environment of the host country, especially when they decide to invest there.

Impacts of Paris Agreement on Russian economy

2018 ◽  
pp. 76-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. A. Makarov ◽  
C. Henry ◽  
V. P. Sergey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Climate Policies

The paper applies multiregional CGE Economic Policy Projection and Analysis (EPPA) model to analyze major risks the Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in 2015 brings to Russia. The authors come to the conclusion that if parties of the Agreement meet their targets that were set for 2030 it may lead to the decrease of average annual GDP growth rates by 0.2-0.3 p. p. Stricter climate policies beyond this year would bring GDP growth rates reduction in2035-2050 by additional 0.5 p. p. If Russia doesn’t ratify Paris Agreement, these losses may increase. In order to mitigate these risks, diversification of Russian economy is required.

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