South-east Asia will contain enduring piracy threat

Subject Piracy attacks in South-east Asia. Significance An incident of kidnapping for ransom in the Sulu Sea last week and a series of attacks on shipping in the Singapore Strait last month have refocused attention on the persistent problem of piracy in South-east Asia. The safe passage of shipping through the region’s waterways is crucial to global trade. Impacts South-east Asian states will respond to piracy outside the framework of ASEAN. The United States and Japan will take the lead in providing capacity-building support for regional coast guards and navies. Piracy in the region is unlikely to become conflated with the South China Sea dispute.

Subject South-east Asian defence budgets. Significance The pressure of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic is prompting many South-east Asian governments to cut defence spending and postpone or cancel new arms acquisitions. Meanwhile, China and the United States continue to vie for influence in the region. Impacts Piracy attacks will increase across the region as socio-economic distress rises and budgets for navies and coast guards fall. ASEAN unity will fracture as tensions among member states increase. Economic problems will cause political instability across South-east Asia, possibly even leading to military coups in certain countries.


Subject Development of South-east Asian coastguards and their geopolitical implications. Significance Senior coastguard officers from Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the United States will meet later this year to discuss cooperation and capacity-building -- and the assertive actions of China's coastguard in littoral waters. With external partners' support, South-east Asian states are developing their coastguards to fight crime and assert maritime territorial claims. Impacts Fishing activities will probably trigger spats between South-east Asian and China's coastguards. Gradually, inter-operability between South-east Asian coastguards will expand. Tokyo and Washington will use coastguards to deepen ties with South-east Asian countries. There could be frictions between Indonesia's and Malaysia's coastguards over waters around Ambalat.


Significance The preferential US trade programme faces renewal or lapse by December 31. South-east Asia’s economies are structured to take advantage of the GSP and many of the products exported to the United States under GSP (such as light manufactures and seafood) are important for South-east Asia’s supply chains. Impacts Vietnam may make another application for inclusion in the US GSP programme. The more authoritarian South-east Asian countries could find it easier to gain US GSP preferences under Trump. The Trump administration could use the GSP as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations or renegotiations.


Subject Headwinds for US-ASEAN trade. Significance The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) last month withdrew ‘developing country’ status from several countries, including half the ASEAN states. This 'developing' status to a large extent protects countries that have it from US investigations into their trade practices. Impacts US companies will file more trade complaints against their South-east Asian rivals because the threshold for such complaints will be lower. More US tariffs on goods from ASEAN countries would increase the cost of doing business for South-east Asia. South-east Asian public opinion towards the United States will deteriorate.


Subject The outlook for the current migrant crisis in South-east Asia. Significance Over the last three weeks, an estimated 25,000 Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants have sought to reach Indonesia and Malaysia, on boats mostly abandoned by people smugglers based in Myanmar, Bangladesh and Thailand. Malaysia and Indonesia have received around 3,000 such migrants so far. Seeking a solution, a regional summit will be held in Bangkok on May 29, including representatives from Myanmar, Australia and the United States. Meanwhile, suspected people-smuggling camps discovered in Thailand and Malaysia in May have led to allegations of official complicity. Impacts Amid allegations of official complicity in people smuggling and trafficking, scrutiny of the Thai and Malaysian governments will increase. Discovery of further people smuggling camps in other ASEAN countries, and allegations of official complicity, are possible. Capacity-building for ASEAN states' police forces, and ASEAN itself, is needed to counter people smuggling and trafficking. South-east Asian countries will enhance maritime patrols to search for other migrants.


Significance The region has some of the world’s busiest ports and sea lanes, which play a key role in global trade. Impacts High rates of piracy incidents will increase insurance rates for ships passing through South-east Asia. Growing tensions in the South China Sea will complicate state responses to piracy. Major powers such as the United States and Japan will increase capacity-building support for regional navies and coast guards.


Significance She addressed two key issues during her trip: tensions in post-coup Myanmar and China’s growing regional footprint. Shortly after she left the region, the United States announced that it would donate unused COVID-19 vaccines abroad, including to South-east Asia. Impacts Washington will tighten its sanctions on the Myanmar military while supporting ASEAN’s five-point plan to ease the country’s crisis. The National Unity Government, a parallel administration to Myanmar’s junta set up by its opponents, will try to attract greater US backing. Manila and Washington may extend negotiations over renewing their Visiting Forces Agreement to prevent the pact expiring in August.


Author(s):  
Gérard Camy ◽  
Camilla Wasserman

Here, representations of suicide in fiction film from the United States, Europe, and South East Asia are presented. Films are helpful in addressing discourses on suicide worldwide. Typically, the sufferings of the characters considering suicide or taking their lives occupy a minor part of the plot in scenarios highlighting action, cultural, and social reflection or existential interrogations. In Hollywood dramas, redemption, punishment, lost love, and solitude are major reasons for suicides; often the consequence of genuine injustice. In the European films discussed, suicides on screen often open to comments and reflections on many tragic circumstances explaining the protagonists’ actions. Not recognizing oneself in and by society seems an important reason for suicide. Wanting to understand the motives behind the voluntary death of a peer is recurrent. Much South East Asian cinema reflects the malaise of a society, its interiorized violence, death’ fascination, and the distress of a youth lacking excitement.


Subject Outlook for Thai-US-China relations. Significance Chatchai Thipsunaree, Thailand’s permanent secretary in the Ministry of Transport, confirmed on May 17 that construction of the long-awaited Thai-China high-speed railway will begin this year. The project reflects the growing momentum in Thailand’s relations with China, and refiguring of ties with the United States. Impacts Trump administration officials see less strategic imperative in the US-Thailand alliance than previous administrations. China’s growing presence in South-east Asia, particularly on the Mekong, will trigger resistance from affected populations in Thailand. Thai officials will allow Chinese infrastructure projects to proceed despite local protests.


Subject Drone sales to South-east Asia. Significance Washington announced last month that it will lift its ban on selling armed/lethal unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, or 'drones') to allies and security partners. This decision has South-east Asian implications: many US allies and interests are there. South-east Asia also has a significant appetite for unarmed drones. Consequently, the region is becoming a fruitful ground for sales and use of both types of UAV. However, this brings mixed security implications. Impacts China will compete with major drone vendors the United States, the EU and Israel for South-east Asian sales. South-east Asian governments will update their laws to incorporate drone-related considerations. Authoritarian governments will probably attempt to control the use of drones by the media and civil society. ASEAN countries will expand domestic drone production, especially under the ASEAN Economic Community.


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