Jansa will consolidate Slovenia’s rightward shift

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Illegal Immigration ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rightward Shift ◽  
Conservative Coalition ◽  
East West ◽  
The Eu

Significance Slovenia has a new four-party conservative coalition government, comprising the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), the Modern Centre Party (SMC), the New Slovenia-Christian Democrats (NSi) and the Pensioners’ Party (DeSuS). Under their coalition agreement, SDS has seven of 16 ministries plus the premiership, SMC four, NSi three and DeSuS two. Impacts The rise of SDS will consolidate the trend in Central Europe towards national conservativism and deepen the east-west divide in the EU. Efforts to clamp down on illegal immigration will exacerbate tensions between Ljubljana and Zagreb. There is a chance a proposed package of supply-side reforms will stimulate the economy as the downturn in Europe hits Slovenian exports.

Common EU migration policy will be hard to achieve

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Illegal Immigration ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Migration Crisis ◽  
To Come ◽  
Run Up ◽  
East West ◽  
The Eu

Significance The EU is still struggling to formulate a coordinated response to the migration crisis, but it has managed to make significant cuts in illegal immigration by tightening control of its external borders and reducing the number of irregular crossings of the Mediterranean. Impacts An EU-Africa summit in November will review measures to prevent people from trying to come to Europe in the first place. The number of people crossing the Mediterranean has fallen, but for each individual attempting the journey the risk of dying has increased. The sense of being abandoned by other EU countries could boost Euroscepticism in the run-up to next year’s election in Italy. Conflicts over migration policy are likely to deepen the east-west divide within the EU.

Moldova will keep Russia ties despite drift towards EU

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Significance A merger with Romania is unrealistic but is a subset of a broader pro-European agenda supported by the Democratic Party-led coalition government and bitterly opposed by President Igor Dodon, who favours close ties with Russia. Moldovans are divided on foreign policy, and economic realities will prevent either direction winning out. Russia is an important source of labour remittances but the EU increasingly dominates trade. Impacts Moldova's dependence on Russia limits opportunities for resolving the Transnistria dispute. Closer military ties with Romania will alarm Moscow and prompt it to retain troops in Transnistria. Moldova may align itself with Ukraine and Georgia in an informal anti-Russian pact.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Migrants help keep Central European populists in power

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central European ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject Populists' exploitation of the refugee crisis in Central Europe. Significance Support for populist parties has risen after last year's refugee crisis across the EU, but nowhere have they been as successful as in Central Europe (CE). Peddling migrant fears has secured the re-election of Robert Fico's Smer (Slovakia) and the revival of Viktor Orban's Fidesz (Hungary) from a post-election popularity slump. On the back of the migration tide, populists are transforming CE's political trajectory. Impacts A united CE front will gain prominence at the EU, stoking tensions with Berlin on migration policy and the future of EU integration. The strengthened legitimacy of illiberal positions on migration will foster the emergence of imitators elsewhere in Europe. The chance of an EU-level, long-term solution to the refugee crisis will remain slim in the medium term.

Unrest may not tip Montenegrin vote opposition's way

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Exclusion ◽  
The Eu

Subject The fallout from recent anti-government protests in Podgorica. Significance Many Montenegrins are increasingly dissatisfied with the concentration of power and privilege in the hands of Milo Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and its allies. Anger and a sense of socio-economic exclusion have brought people onto the streets in protests culminating in clashes on October 24 that injured 24 demonstrators and 15 police. Impacts Membership of NATO could become an election issue. The moderate opposition wants EU mediation but the EU will not get too closely involved; broader EU influence over Montenegro will continue. Relations between Podgorica and Moscow are likely to remain frosty.

A new Italian centre-right government could be weak

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Critical Level ◽  
Grand Coalition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Significance The last month has seen two important developments. First, polls suggest the combined vote for the centre-right is approaching the critical level needed for a majority. Second, both centre-right Forza Italia and the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) have ruled out a grand coalition. Both prefer a second election if no coalition wins a majority. Impacts Even if no bloc wins a majority, President Sergio Mattarella will try to resist a second election. Forza Italia and the PD might renege on their campaign pledges and form a grand coalition if no bloc wins a majority. As long as Forza Italia remains the largest party in the centre-right bloc, a referendum on euro-area membership is unlikely. A Eurosceptic alliance between the League and the M5S would unsettle the EU and financial markets.

EU-UK free movement compromise will need flexibility

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
White Paper ◽  
Free Movement ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
East West ◽  
The Eu

Significance The UK government says it is determined that free movement of people from the EU will end after Brexit. Impacts An upcoming immigration White Paper will provide greater clarity about the UK government’s approach. Proposals to reform the EU's Posted Workers Directive could trigger Eastern European opposition, deepening the east-west divide. Stricter post-Brexit UK immigration policies could lead to labour shortages and skills gaps in sectors such as agriculture and health. Improving euro-area economic prospects could encourage EU nationals living in the United Kingdom to return to the continent.

Radical opposition could form next Kosovo government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
War Crimes ◽  
The Political ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Persistent Poverty

Subject New coalition government. Significance Three months on from early elections, Kosovo has a new coalition government comprising the incumbent Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), the Initiative for Kosovo (Nisma), the New Kosovo Alliance (AKR) and Srpska List, headed by Prime Minister and AAK leader Ramush Haradinaj. Its prospects for survival are not good. Impacts Excluding Vetevendosje from government may bring further unrest, motivated by persistent poverty and anger with the political establishment. Serbia has charged Haradinaj with war crimes; his appointment will therefore complicate relations between Prishtina and Belgrade. Kosovo’s dynamics will have read-across in Macedonia, where the second-largest party has also gained power with ethnic minority support.

Food fears will add to insecurities in eastern EU

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
The World ◽  
Central Eastern ◽  
East West ◽  
The Eu

Subject Alleged discrepancies between the quality of foods on sale in the western and eastern EU. Significance Governments in eastern EU member states are recycling long-heard rumours that multinational food brands sold there are of poorer quality than in western states. Tests by some national authorities appear to confirm these fears. Such practices would not be illegal, but they exacerbate broader worries about second-class citizenship in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), compounded by uncertainty over the direction the EU will take in coming months. Impacts The east-west divide will deepen as a new front is opened ahead of a likely EU reform push later this year. CEE’s political significance will receive a momentary boost as countries show a united front on one of only a handful of issues. A reaction against multinationals from within the EU could make protectionism more respectable elsewhere in the world.

Albanian crisis will hold off reform needed for EU

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Work Abroad ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Political Battle

Significance In the political battle between Prime Minister Edi Rama and President Ilir Meta, parliament -- which is dominated by Rama’s Socialist Party (PS) -- wants to impeach the president following his attempt to cancel the June 30 local elections. Meta’s move was prompted by the decision of the main opposition parties, including the centre-right Democratic Party (PD), to boycott the poll. Impacts Failure to resolve the political crisis will delay the opening of Albania’s accession talks with the EU. The political uncertainty will dampen economic growth, which slowed markedly in the first quarter of 2019. A deteriorating business environment will weaken foreign direct investment inflows. If economic performance remains subdued, it could result in more Albanian migrants seeking work abroad.

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