A new OPEC+ deal would not resolve Russia's problems

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Growth And Development ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Price Management ◽  
Price War

Significance As the COVID-19 pandemic depressed Chinese and global demand for oil, Russia and Saudi Arabia broke off their three-year price management agreement, sending prices tumbling. Moscow insists it can weather the storm, but low oil prices further complicate the adverse economic conditions stemming from COVID-19. Russia has the funding sources to prop up its budget, but this implies abandoning ambitious plans to invest in growth and development. Impacts The disintegration of OPEC+ would undermine Russia's wider attempts to win political partners in the Middle East. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan signed up to OPEC+ but are less willing or able to side with Russia in a price war. Rosneft's divestment of its Venezuelan assets shows a greater sensitivity to sanctions risks in a tougher market.

Russian budget plans for both resilience and growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth And Development ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
National Strategy ◽  
External Funding ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Supply Disruptions ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Additional Funding ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Significance The budget earmarks additional funding for a six-year 'national strategy' for growth and development, yet still envisages a surplus in each of the next three years and an expansion in the sovereign wealth fund. The document needs to be passed in one more reading before it goes to President Vladimir Putin for final sign-off, but amendments are likely to be minor. Impacts Privatisation has been shelved; a budget note refers to just 13 and 11 billion dollars in 2019 and 2020 from selling off state assets. Conservative spending plans should reduce US sanctions risks; reliance on external funding sources is low and likely to diminish further. If sanctions on Iran or other supply disruptions drive oil prices higher, the budget surplus should grow further.

Middle Eastern countries will diversify energy routes

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Neutral Zone ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transit Route

Subject Middle East hydrocarbons routes. Significance Geopolitical uncertainty is increasing in the Middle East due to the confrontation between Iran and its Arab neighbours, and the internal splits within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). These include the breach between Qatar and the group of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain; as well as -- to a much lesser extent -- the Saudi-Kuwaiti Neutral Zone dispute. Impacts Hormuz access will always be indispensable to Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and Iran itself. Competition will increase around the Bab al-Mandab -- a key secondary energy transit route -- among Turkey, Egypt, Iran and the GCC states. The boycott of Qatar by its neighbours will complicate and weaken Arab countries’ responses to Iran and to higher oil prices.

India’s Gulf ties will face setbacks in the near term

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Near Term

Significance Indian nationals are struggling to maintain jobs in the Middle East as GCC states contend with historically low oil prices as well as the economic fallout of the pandemic. Gulf countries have meanwhile expressed concern at what they regard as growing anti-Muslim sentiment in India. Impacts Pakistan will step up efforts to gather support from GCC countries regarding the Kashmir issue. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will increase investment in India’s health and tech sectors. The number of Indian migrant workers in South-east Asia, Australia and Canada will gradually increase.

India and Iran will develop ties within constraints

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Content Type

Significance Jaishankar was visiting Iran for the second time in a month, having stopped over on his way to Russia on July 7. Delhi and Tehran have long had good relations, but ties have been somewhat strained in recent years because of tensions between Tehran and key Indian partner Washington. Impacts India will deepen engagement with Iran’s enemies Israel and Saudi Arabia as part of its balanced Middle East diplomacy. Iran will promote integration of the Chabahar port with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, overlooking Indian objections to such a move. Delhi-Washington security ties will grow stronger.

What influences bank lending in Saudi Arabia?

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-155
Author(s):  
Ken Miyajima
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Bank Balance Sheets

PurposeDeterminants of credit growth in Saudi Arabia are investigated.Design/methodology/approachA panel approach is applied to macroeconomic and bank-level data spanning 2000 ‐15.FindingsBank lending is supported by strong bank balance sheet conditions (high capital ratio, and growth of NPL provisioning and deposits), and higher growth of both oil prices and non-oil private sector GDP. Lower bank concentration also helps, likely through greater competition, so does stronger institution. Consistent with the literature, lending by Islamic banks may be more responsive to economic activity. Lending remained robust in 2015 despite oil prices having declined, helped by strong bank balance sheets and as banks reduced their holdings of “excess liquidity”. To support bank lending in the period ahead, bank balance sheets need to remain strong. Fiscal adjustment and a reduced reliance on banks to finance the budget deficit would support credit provision to the private sector.Originality/valueThe paper is first to analyze in detail determinants of bank lending in Saudi Arabia applying a panel approach to bank level data, and draws critical policy implications.

UK voters will ignore budget and elect hung parliament

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Event ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Deficit Reduction

Significance The budget will prove to be all but the last political event before the final campaign and the May 7 general election. Although the detail had to be determined in cooperation with the Liberal Democrats, Osborne's package was an unashamed pitch for a Conservative term of office. The crucial contest at the election will be the government's claim to have delivered on economic recovery and deficit reduction over the past five years, versus the Labour Party's assertion that its own preferred route to budgetary stability is better balanced and more socially acceptable. Impacts The link, if any, between the economy and politics is uncertain: the Conservatives won in 1992 (recession) but lost in 1997 (boom). The United Kingdom has experienced a 'voteless recovery' -- a huge move from pessimism to optimism, with no benefit for the Conservatives. Benign international economic conditions (notably the sharp fall in global oil prices) have boosted growth for 2015. This shift could be easily reversed if oil prices were to return to 2012-14 levels. Assumptions that the 'age of austerity' is over and the budget will achieve balance in the next parliament are very premature.

Iran-Saudi Arabia tensions will increase instability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Arab State ◽  
Religious Leaders ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Verbal Exchanges

Significance This followed a marked intensification of hostile verbal exchanges between Iranian and Saudi officials and religious leaders in the weeks leading up to the annual pilgrimage to sacred Islamic sites in Saudi Arabia in mid-September. The two countries' mutual hostility prevented Iranian citizens from taking part in the hajj. Iran's developing ties with both Russia and Turkey are also raising mutual tension with Saudi Arabia. Impacts Tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia will hinder future efforts by oil producers to agree a strategy leading to a rise in global prices. Mutual hostility between Tehran and Riyadh will be a major factor behind the failure of international efforts to end the war in Yemen. Medium-term low oil prices may threaten Saudi Arabia's ability to provide further financial bail-outs to Egypt, a key Sunni Arab state.

Imran Khan is likely to become Pakistan prime minister

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Military

Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

IMF agreement does not end Ecuador’s funding concerns

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Environmental Activism ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumer Loans ◽  
Economic Shock ◽  
Small Banks ◽  
Oil Gas ◽  
The Way

Significance This Fund-supported programme will help Ecuador address the economic shock caused by the sharp drop in oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. It also paves the way for the settlement of a USD17.4bn debt exchange between Ecuador and its creditors. Impacts Strikes will increase as pandemic restrictions ease, with workers demanding protection from mass-firings and income losses. Environmental activism against extractive projects will continue to pose challenges for the oil, gas and mining sectors. Small banks will be highly vulnerable to worsening economic conditions given their exposure to consumer loans and microfinance. Inflows of Venezuelan refugees and migrants will exert renewed pressure on fiscal costs once the sanitary crisis subsides.

New Saudi and Emirati gas finds boost export hopes

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
Petrochemicals Industry ◽  
European Markets

Significance Further exploration and appraisal work will be needed to gauge how much gas can be recovered from the new discoveries and at what cost. The global demand slump following COVID-19 lockdowns is raising cost-effectiveness questions over the multiplicity of new global LNG projects, not least in neighbouring Qatar. Nevertheless, Middle East producers are well positioned to challenge US and Russian LNG in Asian and European markets. Impacts Middle Eastern LNG imports will decline further, and plans for new regasification capacity are likely to be shelved. Dubai’s reduced dependence on the Dolphin gas import pipeline could affect relations with Qatar and fellow-customer Muscat. Riyadh’s development of the Jafurah gas and condensate field will provide feedstock for its growing petrochemicals industry.

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