India’s Gulf ties will face setbacks in the near term

Significance Indian nationals are struggling to maintain jobs in the Middle East as GCC states contend with historically low oil prices as well as the economic fallout of the pandemic. Gulf countries have meanwhile expressed concern at what they regard as growing anti-Muslim sentiment in India. Impacts Pakistan will step up efforts to gather support from GCC countries regarding the Kashmir issue. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will increase investment in India’s health and tech sectors. The number of Indian migrant workers in South-east Asia, Australia and Canada will gradually increase.

Significance The two-day visit has not averted the growing confrontation between Turkey on one hand and the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on the other. This is forming a new and important cleavage in the politics of the Middle East. Impacts Turkish exports to the Gulf countries look vulnerable. Turkey will avoid allowing its political differences with Saudi Arabia to affect business links. Saudi investments in Turkey, at about 6 billion dollars, will be a stabilising factor. Joint ventures in the arms industry could be the main casualties.


Subject Middle East hydrocarbons routes. Significance Geopolitical uncertainty is increasing in the Middle East due to the confrontation between Iran and its Arab neighbours, and the internal splits within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). These include the breach between Qatar and the group of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain; as well as -- to a much lesser extent -- the Saudi-Kuwaiti Neutral Zone dispute. Impacts Hormuz access will always be indispensable to Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and Iran itself. Competition will increase around the Bab al-Mandab -- a key secondary energy transit route -- among Turkey, Egypt, Iran and the GCC states. The boycott of Qatar by its neighbours will complicate and weaken Arab countries’ responses to Iran and to higher oil prices.


Subject South Korea-Gulf ties. Significance As Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates seek to reduce their economic dependence on oil, they have been deepening their ties with South Korea. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) view South Korea as a development model because of its swift and successful transition to a knowledge-based economy. For its part, Seoul believes that developing ties with Gulf countries will enhance its energy security and boost trade flows. Impacts Increased renewables capacity will help meet the Gulf's rising domestic energy demand that threatens to erode its capacity to export oil. South Korean technology transfer and expertise should stimulate job creation in downstream industries, and help reduce youth unemployment. Construction of nuclear plants in the Gulf will establish South Korea as a credible exporter of nuclear power technology.


Subject Prospects for the Gulf states to end-2017. Significance Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries agree on the need to check Iran’s regional aspirations, but differ radically on how to achieve this goal -- pushing Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to open confrontation with Qatar and leaving Kuwait and Oman caught uncomfortably in the middle. At the same time, they face the major challenge of adjusting their economies to long-term expectations of lower oil revenue.


Significance As the COVID-19 pandemic depressed Chinese and global demand for oil, Russia and Saudi Arabia broke off their three-year price management agreement, sending prices tumbling. Moscow insists it can weather the storm, but low oil prices further complicate the adverse economic conditions stemming from COVID-19. Russia has the funding sources to prop up its budget, but this implies abandoning ambitious plans to invest in growth and development. Impacts The disintegration of OPEC+ would undermine Russia's wider attempts to win political partners in the Middle East. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan signed up to OPEC+ but are less willing or able to side with Russia in a price war. Rosneft's divestment of its Venezuelan assets shows a greater sensitivity to sanctions risks in a tougher market.


Significance The sultan this month paid his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia, establishing institutions for ongoing cooperation. Under the previous ruler, Muscat was wary of Riyadh’s dominant influence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). However, both the regional environment and Oman’s economic situation are now in a state of flux. Impacts New Saudi investment in Oman would likely focus on the tourism and industrial sectors. Higher oil prices will provide only a temporary reprieve for Muscat’s structural economic problems. Omani interactions with the United Arab Emirates could become more fraught.


2017 ◽  
Vol 118 (5/6) ◽  
pp. 214-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuti Saxena

Purpose As the ongoing oil prices’ crisis is emerging as a major cause of concern for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, the constituent governments are attempting at undertaking measures of economic diversification to attain long-term sustainability. The author posits that open government data (OGD) has a significant role to play in facilitating the economic turnaround of the GCC region, given that OGD promotes innovation and economic growth besides providing avenues for collaboration and participation among different stakeholders. Design/methodology/approach Following a structured literature review, the paper scans literature on OGD followed by providing a typology of countries on the basis of their OGD-adherence (“laggard”, “caged”, “forerunner” and “champ”). This is followed by a discussion on the ongoing oil prices’ crisis, and evidentiary support is lent by examples from the OGD portals of each of the six GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates) to provide indicators as to how a robust OGD implementation may support their economic diversification objectives. Findings Although the present OGD framework of the GCC is relatively weak, it is asserted that OGD has immense potential in facilitating the economic diversification initiatives of the GCC countries. Therefore, the GCC needs to strategize upon institutionalization of their OGD initiatives for realizing their “vision” and goals of economic diversification to result in an economic turnaround effectively. Originality/value Besides providing a typology of countries as OGD-adherents and categorizing GCC as “forerunner(s)” on the basis of the typology, the originality of the study lies in its attempt to answer the research question: “what is the role of the OGD in facilitating the economic diversification of the GCC?” Conceding that the research on OGD in the GCC context is few and far between, the present study is a significant contribution to the extant literature pertaining to the roll-out of OGD in developing countries.


Significance Islamist movements saw rapid political successes in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings, but this was followed by the brutal repression of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood from July 2013. The movement has now been formally banned in Egypt (since December 2013), Saudi Arabia (since March 2014), and the United Arab Emirates (since November 2014). However, Islamists elsewhere are proving to be highly adaptable. Impacts The fall of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood is still pushing Islamist movements in the region to act cautiously and pragmatically. Behind the scenes, Islamist leaders are divided as they try to revise their ideologies to accommodate the new post-2011 politics. Despite widespread challenges, Islamists are likely to remain important political actors across the region for years to come.


Subject Saudi-Emirati strategic partnership. Significance The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia are accelerating their strategic partnership. On June 6 they held the inaugural meeting of the Saudi-Emirati Coordination Council (SECC), signalling increased assertiveness and a deliberate turning-away from the wider Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The partnership has become pivotal for the region but has delivered mixed results. Impacts The new SECC will eclipse the troubled GCC as the driver of Gulf policies and may deter US efforts to convene a GCC summit in September. Excluded Kuwait and Oman may look for other regional ties, as they face increasing pressure from the Saudi-Emirati duo. The two countries’coordination against Iran will define long-term alliances in the Middle East region.


2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 353-368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivian W.Y. Tam ◽  
S.X. Zeng

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship among cultural values, using the dimension of power distance (PD), and employee job satisfaction in engineering firms in United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. Design/methodology/approach – A well-known leading survey design, the Value Survey Module 94 developed by Hofstede (1980), is used in measuring PD as a quantitative methodology in the form of a questionnaire survey in UAE and Saudi Arabia. Findings – Power distance index (PDI) show variation not only at country level, but also at firm level. Consultative is found to be the most preferred manager type by the employees. Employees perceiving their managers to be consultative are the least afraid of disagreement with their managers. “Work”, “co-workers” and “operating procedures” find to be the major job satisfaction facets while “opportunities for promotion” and “reward” are the least attracted to job satisfaction. Age is found positively correlated with “pay”, “work”, “opportunities for promotion” and “benefits”. “Work” and educational qualification of the employees are negatively correlated but no significant correlations appear to exist with other job satisfaction facets. No significant correlation existed between education level and PDI is found. Originality/value – This paper is one of the first studies on PD and job satisfaction in UAE and Saudi Arabia. This can provide significant insight of how the Middle East countries, UAE and Saudi Arabia, react with globalization in the recent years. Recommendations for improving the existing job satisfaction in the Middle East countries are also explored.


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