Ethiopia-Egypt dam disputes may de-escalate

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Artificial Reservoir ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Heavy Rains

Significance The nearly completed mega-dam has been a source of immense friction between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, but recent developments could create space to de-escalate. Impacts Progress on the dam offers much-needed respite to embattled Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed amid a serious domestic political crisis. Heavy rains have allayed fears of an immediate impact on downstream water supply, which will ease pressure on Egypt’s government. As the dam fills, issues will arise regarding the fates of the thousands of people the artificial reservoir will displace.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

Ireland might see historic coalition between old foes

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Public Services ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Bond Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Way

Significance The Dail convened on March 10 to elect a taoiseach (prime minister), but no nominee was able to attract the support of anything close to a majority. Impacts Ireland's problems including the decline in public services are unlikely to be addressed while a caretaker government is in place. Substantial delays in forming a new government could raise Irish bond prices. The future of Irish Water, a body set up to deal with water supply problems whose abolition was demanded by the opposition, is uncertain. The crisis may bring about a long-promised reform of the way the Dail operates, giving it a larger and more constructive role.

Opposition boycott tactics are destabilising Albania

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Institutions ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Socialist Party ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Integration

Significance The governing Socialist Party (PSSh) under Prime Minister Edi Rama is expected to win again. This implies policy continuity by what has hitherto been a successful reformist government. However, the decision by the opposition Democratic Party (PDSh) to boycott the elections creates significant uncertainty about the process and aftermath. Impacts PDSh’s boycott of parliament is blocking the completion of judicial reforms that require approval by a two-thirds majority of deputies. A PDSh boycott of elections would constitute a failure of political institutions and halt Albania’s progress towards EU integration. Disenfranchising a large constituency would escalate the political crisis and could lead PDSh supporters to resort to violence.

Lebanon’s new electoral law favours sectarian parties

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Border Security ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Government Performance ◽  
Political Movements ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Refugee ◽  
The Law ◽  
Electoral Law

Significance Parliament on June 16 ratified a new electoral law, averting the looming political crisis that threatened to leave the country without a legislature. Impacts New, non-sectarian political movements could launch street protests against the law, as they plan a strategy for the 2018 elections. Redistricting could incentivise collaboration between the larger Christian parties. Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri will try to boost his re-election prospects through improved government performance. Border security, Syrian refugee fears, infrastructure spending and rubbish collection will be key areas of focus. Only a major regional crisis such as war between Israel and Hezbollah would be sufficient to postpone elections again.

Japan's foreign policy caution will not last

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Korean ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
High Level ◽  
Economic Ties

Subject Recent developments in Japanese foreign policy. Significance This month has seen a flurry of high-level diplomatic activity. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has visited Germany, France, Italy, Belgium and the United Kingdom and Russia. Over the same period, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida visited China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam. Impacts Except for Washington, G7 governments have more interest in economic ties with Beijing than in Tokyo's concerns about territorial issues. Japan's willingness to engage Russia may draw the West's ire in due course. The process of relocating the Futenma airbase may drag on for another decade. TPP ratification will be slower than Abe wanted, but US politics is the greatest obstacle. A weakened South Korean administration could find itself pushed into a more hostile approach to Tokyo.

Protests could shift Albania towards authoritarianism

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Student Protests ◽  
The City

Significance Student protests demanding fundamental reform have resumed with the new term and are spreading beyond Tirana to other groups, including -- worryingly for Prime Minister Edi Rama -- miners and other workers. Rama’s sacrifice of senior ministers has failed to quiet the street protests, the largest since the demise of communism. Impacts Thousands of protesters and the closure of roads into the city will interrupt business activity in central Tirana in the short term. A new cabinet with little experience and under close prime ministerial control will depress the quality of policymaking. An escalating political crisis would reduce Albania’s chances of being asked at the June European Council to open accession negotiations.

Tunisia Nidaa divisions will benefit Ennahda in 2019

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coalition Partner ◽  
Government Coalition

Significance Negotiations between coalition government parties and other major political players to agree on a new document outlining the government’s path forward (the ‘Carthage II Agreement’) stalled in late May over whether to replace Prime Minister Youssef Chahed and reshuffle the cabinet. A faction of the ruling Nidaa Tounes party led by its executive chairman, Hafedh Essebsi (son of Tunisia’s President Beji Caid Essebsi), called for the dismissal of the prime minister, who is also from Nidaa Tounes. Nidaa’s government coalition partner, the Islamist Ennahda, opposed the move. Impacts Insecurity over the government’s future will complicate key economic and security reforms. The political crisis will deter foreign investment. Friction between rival Nidaa Tounes factions will weaken popular confidence in politics.

Albanian crisis will hold off reform needed for EU

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Work Abroad ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Political Battle

Significance In the political battle between Prime Minister Edi Rama and President Ilir Meta, parliament -- which is dominated by Rama’s Socialist Party (PS) -- wants to impeach the president following his attempt to cancel the June 30 local elections. Meta’s move was prompted by the decision of the main opposition parties, including the centre-right Democratic Party (PD), to boycott the poll. Impacts Failure to resolve the political crisis will delay the opening of Albania’s accession talks with the EU. The political uncertainty will dampen economic growth, which slowed markedly in the first quarter of 2019. A deteriorating business environment will weaken foreign direct investment inflows. If economic performance remains subdued, it could result in more Albanian migrants seeking work abroad.

Vested interests may block urgent tax reform in Jordan

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
The Government

Significance It also looked at government-proposed amendments to another law aiming to reduce the scope for tax evasion in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone. Recent developments including the pandemic, an April political crisis between King Abdullah and his half-brother Prince Hamzah and now the Gaza conflict have highlighted popular dissatisfaction driven by economic grievances. Impacts Tourism should start to recover in late 2021, but revenue is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024 at the earliest. Forecast economic growth of 2-3% over the next four years leaves little scope for improvement in living standards. Without a strong economic recovery, the government will struggle to bring down an unemployment rate that has reached 24%.

Moldovan political crisis heralds possible snap poll

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Organisations ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mayoral Elections ◽  
International Pressure

Significance This follows the June 12 resignation of Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici, after his alleged misleading of parliament about his educational record. His resignation culminates a short but troubled time in office, dominated by the repercussions of a damaging banking scandal that has cost Moldova 1 billion dollars. Despite their strong showing in the June 14 local and mayoral elections, Moldova's pro-EU parties may struggle to replicate their success on a national scale and -- importantly -- to form a robust future coalition. Impacts As Moldova remains too weak to assert its role in the Transnistria crisis, the breakaway province will remain firmly under Russian control. International organisations may suspend the introduction of new assistance programmes until the political crisis has been resolved. International pressure on Chisinau to find those responsible for the missing 1 billion dollars will grow and protests could escalate.

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