Expansion of Mexico’s CJNG poses regional risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
New Generation ◽  
The Military

Significance Police believe the cargo, worth some USD18.6mn, belonged to Mexico’s New Generation Jalisco Cartel (CJNG), a group that has expanded rapidly in the last decade to become one of Mexico’s most powerful criminal organisations. Impacts AMLO remains popular but increasing violence and perceptions of impunity will weigh on his approval ratings. Any increased use of the military would undermine AMLO’s image as a human rights defender and could raise government-military tensions. CJNG expansion will reach a limit, hastened by arrests, killings and asset confiscation, but for now it benefits from rivals’ weaknesses.

Cienfuegos affair threatens Mexico-US security ties

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.

Nigerian insecurity could worsen after polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
North Central ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
The Military

Significance Attacks by Boko Haram’s two factions pose the greatest immediate danger, but insecurity from banditry in Zamfara and Sokoto states and inter-communal conflicts across much of the north-central ‘Middle Belt’ could impinge on the elections and after. Impacts An over-extended military and partisan political divisions will hamper the development of a coordinated counterinsurgency response. Journalists and human rights groups could face a growing clampdown over critical reporting on the military. Ethnic and religious-inspired Middle Belt clashes risk disrupting polling in rural areas and fuelling worsening cycles of reprisal violence.

Boko Haram will pose renewed threat to Nigeria’s army

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Humanitarian Assistance ◽  
Terrorist Group ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
North East ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Military

Significance The attacks come on the back of a general uptick in violence by the terrorist group both in north-east Nigeria and across its borders. The renewed violence suggests that even in its current degraded and divided state, Boko Haram’s various factions retain the capacity to hurt civilians and security personnel in north-eastern Nigeria and disrupt crucial humanitarian efforts. Impacts Renewed violence in north-eastern Nigeria will hamper the delivery of vital humanitarian assistance and government resettlement efforts. Despite current divisions, growing military successes by Boko Haram’s competing factions could potentially facilitate closer coordination. Growing terror attacks could reduce the impetus for the military to address human rights concerns or decommission local vigilante groups.

Myanmar’s garment sector will struggle to endure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Illegal Migration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Garment Workers ◽  
Garment Factory ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Subject Myanmar's garment industry. Significance A strike at a Chinese-owned garment factory that began in August has just been resolved. In early October, the EU said it was considering withdrawing Myanmar’s generalised scheme of preferences (GSP) tariff status in response to the country’s human rights record in ethnic minority areas. Impacts Garment workers could be prompted to seek illegal migration to neighbouring countries such as Thailand in search of employment. The National League for Democracy, which controls the civilian portion of the government, will lose support ahead of the 2020 elections. The military is likely to be hit by more US sanctions over the Rohingya crisis.

The threat of African military coups may rise

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
International Community ◽  
Human Rights Violations ◽  
International Agreement ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Regimes ◽  
Democratic Principles ◽  
The Military

Significance International agreement that all unconstitutional transfers should be condemned and punished is being tested by carefully designed takeovers that appear to adhere to democratic principles and enjoy popular support. In Mali, as in Zimbabwe, the coup plotters sought to escape international sanction by forcing the president to resign rather than more traditional strategies of execution, imprisonment or exile. Impacts The international community will find it harder to reach consensus on coups as they become increasingly disguised as popular transitions. On average, military regimes achieve lower levels of economic growth and commit worse human rights violations than democratic states. Coups weaken democratic institutions and norms while politicising the military, making further coups likely.

Giammattei pledges reform in Guatemala

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Central American ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Tax Havens ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Right-wing Giammattei has pledged to introduce far-reaching reforms, focused on boosting economic growth and combating high rates of violent crime. However, legislative weaknesses and economic challenges look sure to undermine his policy efforts. Impacts Morales looks likely to avoid criminal corruption charges by being sworn into the Central American Parliament hours after leaving office. Plans to increase the size of the military may spark protests by human rights defenders. France’s removal of Guatemala from its list of tax havens this month will be a welcome early boost for the new president.

African COVID-19 lockdowns will split public opinion

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
South African ◽  
Health Risks ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Vulnerable Communities ◽  
Restrictive Measures

Subject African COVID-19-related lockdowns. Significance There has been considerable civil society resistance to restrictive COVID-19-related lockdowns in Africa on both poverty and human rights grounds. Academics and journalists have also questioned their sustainability given the limited savings of most households and the reliance of many communities on the informal sector. However, both public opinion and civil society itself are deeply divided. Governments that acted quickly and firmly appear to have gained higher approval ratings for their handling of the pandemic, while organisations that represent vulnerable communities have welcomed restrictive measures intended to prevent the virus' spread. Impacts Governments failing to control COVID-19's spread risk being branded health risks by neighbours who have imposed stricter measures. Popular support for restrictive measures is likely to remain high so long as governments can demonstrate they are working. Clashing and problematic statements by ministers on restrictions could be an ongoing challenge for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

China's AI plan lays foundation for long-term strength

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Information And Communications Technology ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Government ◽  
Intelligence Development ◽  
New Generation ◽  
The Military

Subject China's AI development plans. Significance China's artificial intelligence (AI) industry received investment of 28 billion dollars last year, according to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology. The government last July issued a Next generation artificial intelligence development plan, which sets a 1-trillion-renminbi (151-billion-dollar) 2030 target for China's core AI industry and a 10-trillion-renminbi target for related industries. A Three-year action plan for promoting development of a new generation artificial intelligence industry followed in December, setting numerous quantitative targets for 2020. Impacts Foreign AI professionals will be able to find well-paid employment in Chinese firms and institutions. Foreign firms working in AI will find eager partners and investors in China. Chinese experts will participate in international standard-setting and debates about ethics and safety. Close cooperation with the military on AI development will feed suspicion of Chinese technology firms overseas.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document