Giammattei pledges reform in Guatemala

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Central American ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Tax Havens ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Right-wing Giammattei has pledged to introduce far-reaching reforms, focused on boosting economic growth and combating high rates of violent crime. However, legislative weaknesses and economic challenges look sure to undermine his policy efforts. Impacts Morales looks likely to avoid criminal corruption charges by being sworn into the Central American Parliament hours after leaving office. Plans to increase the size of the military may spark protests by human rights defenders. France’s removal of Guatemala from its list of tax havens this month will be a welcome early boost for the new president.

The threat of African military coups may rise

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
International Community ◽  
Human Rights Violations ◽  
International Agreement ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Regimes ◽  
Democratic Principles ◽  
The Military

Significance International agreement that all unconstitutional transfers should be condemned and punished is being tested by carefully designed takeovers that appear to adhere to democratic principles and enjoy popular support. In Mali, as in Zimbabwe, the coup plotters sought to escape international sanction by forcing the president to resign rather than more traditional strategies of execution, imprisonment or exile. Impacts The international community will find it harder to reach consensus on coups as they become increasingly disguised as popular transitions. On average, military regimes achieve lower levels of economic growth and commit worse human rights violations than democratic states. Coups weaken democratic institutions and norms while politicising the military, making further coups likely.

Cienfuegos affair threatens Mexico-US security ties

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.

Guatemala plans bold new security strategy for 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Police Force ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strategy Shift ◽  
Border Dispute ◽  
Policy Shift ◽  
The Military

Subject Security strategy shift. Significance On January 5, President Jimmy Morales announced plans to withdraw the military from civilian security duties by the end of 2017. The security policy shift comes amid indications that crime rates are beginning to fall. However, a reduction of the military’s presence on the streets will see the bulk of security duties fall upon the police force, which continues to struggle with allegations of corruption and may be ill prepared for the task ahead. Impacts The government’s apparent confidence in declining crime rates will be well received by potential investors. Should it be successful, the move may encourage similar policies in neighbouring countries that struggle with violent crime. The military’s renewed focus on conventional duties may be a warning to Belize in the countries’ border dispute.

Bet on Canada's spending poses risks for Trudeau

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Tax Havens ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conservative Government ◽  
Business Tax ◽  
Fiscal Austerity

Significance It includes large federal stimulus spending to spur economic growth and to alleviate the worst impacts of the collapse in global commodity prices, particularly oil. The budget represents a break on the part of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with the prevailing orthodoxy around fiscal austerity and reliance on central bank monetary policy to support growth. Impacts Small business tax rates remain unchanged from levels set by the previous Conservative government. Troubled Quebec aerospace firm Bombardier may receive a federal bailout. Post-election leadership questions surrounding the Conservatives and NDP provide Trudeau with a weakened opposition for the time being. Ambitious federal projections of revenues recovered from tax havens and arrears are unlikely to be realised.

Nigerian insecurity could worsen after polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
North Central ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
The Military

Significance Attacks by Boko Haram’s two factions pose the greatest immediate danger, but insecurity from banditry in Zamfara and Sokoto states and inter-communal conflicts across much of the north-central ‘Middle Belt’ could impinge on the elections and after. Impacts An over-extended military and partisan political divisions will hamper the development of a coordinated counterinsurgency response. Journalists and human rights groups could face a growing clampdown over critical reporting on the military. Ethnic and religious-inspired Middle Belt clashes risk disrupting polling in rural areas and fuelling worsening cycles of reprisal violence.

Boko Haram will pose renewed threat to Nigeria’s army

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Humanitarian Assistance ◽  
Terrorist Group ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
North East ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Military

Significance The attacks come on the back of a general uptick in violence by the terrorist group both in north-east Nigeria and across its borders. The renewed violence suggests that even in its current degraded and divided state, Boko Haram’s various factions retain the capacity to hurt civilians and security personnel in north-eastern Nigeria and disrupt crucial humanitarian efforts. Impacts Renewed violence in north-eastern Nigeria will hamper the delivery of vital humanitarian assistance and government resettlement efforts. Despite current divisions, growing military successes by Boko Haram’s competing factions could potentially facilitate closer coordination. Growing terror attacks could reduce the impetus for the military to address human rights concerns or decommission local vigilante groups.

Myanmar’s garment sector will struggle to endure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Illegal Migration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Garment Workers ◽  
Garment Factory ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Subject Myanmar's garment industry. Significance A strike at a Chinese-owned garment factory that began in August has just been resolved. In early October, the EU said it was considering withdrawing Myanmar’s generalised scheme of preferences (GSP) tariff status in response to the country’s human rights record in ethnic minority areas. Impacts Garment workers could be prompted to seek illegal migration to neighbouring countries such as Thailand in search of employment. The National League for Democracy, which controls the civilian portion of the government, will lose support ahead of the 2020 elections. The military is likely to be hit by more US sanctions over the Rohingya crisis.

Expansion of Mexico’s CJNG poses regional risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
New Generation ◽  
The Military

Significance Police believe the cargo, worth some USD18.6mn, belonged to Mexico’s New Generation Jalisco Cartel (CJNG), a group that has expanded rapidly in the last decade to become one of Mexico’s most powerful criminal organisations. Impacts AMLO remains popular but increasing violence and perceptions of impunity will weigh on his approval ratings. Any increased use of the military would undermine AMLO’s image as a human rights defender and could raise government-military tensions. CJNG expansion will reach a limit, hastened by arrests, killings and asset confiscation, but for now it benefits from rivals’ weaknesses.

EU-China investment deal is running out of time

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Central And Eastern Europe ◽  
European Council ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Standards ◽  
Economic Ties ◽  
The Eu

Significance According to Beijing, Merkel and Macron showed their willingness to ratify quickly the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). However, opposition to the CAI is growing in Europe, with parliamentarians particularly concerned about Chinese sanctions and China’s record on human rights and labour standards. Impacts The recent European Council rejection of Macron and Merkel’s proposal on Russia suggests the two leaders’ influence in the EU is waning. The likely emergence of a right-wing government in Italy in 2022 or 2023 would see Rome hardening its position on China. Deterioration in EU-China economic ties would disproportionately hurt economies in southern Europe and Central and Eastern Europe.

Central American violence trends will diverge in 2015

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
El Salvador ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Illegal Immigration ◽  
The Other ◽  
Central American ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Content Type

Subject Diverging trends in Central American violence. Significance Violence in El Salvador surged in 2014, with murders rising by 57% over 2013. This sharp rise was in contrast to trends in the other most violent Central American countries of Guatemala and Honduras, where the level of violence registered a slight decline in 2014. Impacts The effectiveness of Uruguay's marijuana legalisation will be key in Guatemala's decision on whether to propose such a policy. Rising violence in El Salvador may spill into Guatemala and Honduras, affecting attempts to maintain declining rates of violent crime. In the longer term, improving security in Guatemala and Honduras may reduce illegal immigration from these countries.

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