Nigerian insecurity could worsen after polls

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
North Central ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
The Military

Significance Attacks by Boko Haram’s two factions pose the greatest immediate danger, but insecurity from banditry in Zamfara and Sokoto states and inter-communal conflicts across much of the north-central ‘Middle Belt’ could impinge on the elections and after. Impacts An over-extended military and partisan political divisions will hamper the development of a coordinated counterinsurgency response. Journalists and human rights groups could face a growing clampdown over critical reporting on the military. Ethnic and religious-inspired Middle Belt clashes risk disrupting polling in rural areas and fuelling worsening cycles of reprisal violence.

Cienfuegos affair threatens Mexico-US security ties

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.

Ottawa extends terrorist entity list to neo-fascists

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Business Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Us ◽  
White Supremacists ◽  
The Military ◽  
Radical Element

Significance Some MPs called for this action in the wake of the storming of the US Capitol last month, but the move has been considered for some time following concerns about extremism within the military. Impacts The growth of extremism is linked to a growing divide between conservative white rural areas and cosmopolitan cities. Separatist sentiment in the western provinces may develop a newly radical element from links to extremism. The business sector may face some disruption from an increase in protests and demonstrations. Canada’s reputation for welcoming immigrants could be damaged if there are high-profile incidents involving white supremacists.

IS will rebuild in rural areas of northern Iraq

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Northern Iraq ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North

Significance Over the past year, IS has transitioned into an insurgent movement across the north, and the risk of militants fleeing Syria into Iraq has heightened fears of a growing threat. Impacts IS will not attack Iraqi cities in a sustained manner in 2019. IS will maintain a strong rural presence in Kirkuk, Nineveh and Diyala. US-led coalition forces will likely remain in Iraq and Syria.

Kidal will be test of the state's return to north Mali

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Far North ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Northern City

Subject Kidal's significance. Significance In mid-February, the government deployed 600 soldiers and auxiliary forces to the far north-eastern city of Kidal and 200 more to Timbuktu, another key northern city. There are also plans to deploy troops to Menaka and Taoudenit. All these towns have been under the de facto control of shifting constellations of rebels, former rebels and militias since April 2012. The return of the military as part of a ‘reconstituted army’ consisting of one-third government soldiers, one-third former rebel fighters and one-third government-aligned militia members indicates a softening of tensions. Impacts The Kidal deployment may blunt some Western criticism of the Malian government’s performance. Legislative elections in March and talks with jihadists could yet change political balances in Kidal. Relations between the government and former rebels in the north are better now than in years. The Algiers Accord’s different provisions are so interconnected that the success of any one depends on agreement on multiple other elements.

Prospects for Afghan peace talks are dwindling

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Confidence ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Open Spaces ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
The North ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The attack was an attempt to undermine the nine month old national unity government headed by President Ashraf Ghani, who is already losing public confidence since the cabinet is still incomplete and the country still lacks a viable security plan. Meanwhile, Taliban gains in the north have prompted the government to arm local militias to bolster its security forces. According to UN figures, the insurgency has left 974 dead and 1,963 injured in the first four months of 2015 -- a 16% rise on 2014. Impacts Growing public discontent could open spaces for competing leaders and groups opposed to the government, threatening civil unrest. Absent a viable security strategy, NATO may slow the military drawdown, implying extended involvement. Foreign investors, especially China, could renege on their investment commitments if the Taliban continue taking new territory.

Boko Haram will pose renewed threat to Nigeria’s army

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Humanitarian Assistance ◽  
Terrorist Group ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terror Attacks ◽  
North East ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Military

Significance The attacks come on the back of a general uptick in violence by the terrorist group both in north-east Nigeria and across its borders. The renewed violence suggests that even in its current degraded and divided state, Boko Haram’s various factions retain the capacity to hurt civilians and security personnel in north-eastern Nigeria and disrupt crucial humanitarian efforts. Impacts Renewed violence in north-eastern Nigeria will hamper the delivery of vital humanitarian assistance and government resettlement efforts. Despite current divisions, growing military successes by Boko Haram’s competing factions could potentially facilitate closer coordination. Growing terror attacks could reduce the impetus for the military to address human rights concerns or decommission local vigilante groups.

Egypt insecurity will persist through Sisi’s new term

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Nile Delta ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Nile Valley ◽  
Cost Of Living ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Failure ◽  
The North ◽  
Desert Areas ◽  
The Military

Significance The military launched 'Operation Sinai 2018' on February 9 to “confront terrorism”, covering the north and middle Sinai, the Nile Delta and the desert areas west of the Nile valley. The operation comes as President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi gears up for re-election on March 26-28. Impacts Public opinion remains broadly supportive of the president, but this could change if violence reaches Cairo. Most Egyptians will be more preoccupied with the rising cost of living than terrorism. Government failure to improve living standards will increase dissatisfaction despite the completion of ‘mega-projects’.

Myanmar’s garment sector will struggle to endure

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Ethnic Minority ◽  
Illegal Migration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Garment Workers ◽  
Garment Factory ◽  
National League ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Eu

Subject Myanmar's garment industry. Significance A strike at a Chinese-owned garment factory that began in August has just been resolved. In early October, the EU said it was considering withdrawing Myanmar’s generalised scheme of preferences (GSP) tariff status in response to the country’s human rights record in ethnic minority areas. Impacts Garment workers could be prompted to seek illegal migration to neighbouring countries such as Thailand in search of employment. The National League for Democracy, which controls the civilian portion of the government, will lose support ahead of the 2020 elections. The military is likely to be hit by more US sanctions over the Rohingya crisis.

Nigerian north-east relief gains could be reversed

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Military

Significance Delivery of relief to 8.5 million people in north-eastern Nigeria is complicated by persistent insecurity due to the Boko Haram insurgency, the dependency of the aid community on military cooperation for access, alleged corruption and mismanagement by government agents and contractors, an uncertain domestic political situation and ambiguity about mid-term funding from international sources. These challenges have led to an enduring humanitarian disaster and the possibility of reversals on the regional security front. Impacts Political uncertainty due to President Muhammadu Buhari’s poor health will hamper national efforts on the humanitarian front. An unimproved humanitarian situation will complicate the military’s counter-insurgency campaign, and harm long-term security efforts. Ongoing corruption revelations, particularly within the military, could undermine security sector and federal executive relations. Renewed Niger Delta militancy and pro-Biafra separatism could distract the federal government's attention from the north-east.

Expansion of Mexico’s CJNG poses regional risks

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
New Generation ◽  
The Military

Significance Police believe the cargo, worth some USD18.6mn, belonged to Mexico’s New Generation Jalisco Cartel (CJNG), a group that has expanded rapidly in the last decade to become one of Mexico’s most powerful criminal organisations. Impacts AMLO remains popular but increasing violence and perceptions of impunity will weigh on his approval ratings. Any increased use of the military would undermine AMLO’s image as a human rights defender and could raise government-military tensions. CJNG expansion will reach a limit, hastened by arrests, killings and asset confiscation, but for now it benefits from rivals’ weaknesses.

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