Tensions will rise as Montenegro 'coup' comes to trial

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Political Relations ◽  
The Government ◽  
Property Markets

Subject The authorities’ allegations that members of Russia’s security services were involved in a failed plot to overthrow the government last October. Significance Recent press reports quoting official Whitehall and NATO sources have backed allegations of a Russian-assisted coup plot, which Moscow has strongly denied. Montenegrin officials including former Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic claim the aim was to prevent Montenegro joining NATO. Leaders of the pro-Russian opposition bloc, the Democratic Front (DF), whom the authorities accuse of complicity, have denounced it as ‘fake news’ concocted by the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and its allies to maintain their quarter-century-long hold on power. Impacts Montenegro is on course to join NATO but full ratification may await the Dutch elections and the Trump presidency’s settling in. Accusing Moscow of planning a coup will set back political relations despite Russia's prominence in tourist and property markets. Good relations with Serbia will continue, with Vucic equally aware of the need for care as Russia strengthens its Western Balkan presence. Montenegro will continue to make progress towards EU membership with the possibility of joining as early as the start of the next decade. London will try to reinvigorate its influence in the region post-Brexit by supporting Podgorica against threats to its pro-Western stance.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Italian stability hinges on M5S future and Salvini

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Coalition ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Litmus Test

Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.

United Kingdom's Corbyn unlikely to face coup soon

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
General Election ◽  
Leadership Positions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance The centrist, 'Blairite' section of the party has been defeated and largely excluded from leadership positions. Corbyn's past statements and policy stances are widely believed to render him implausible as a potential prime minister, and thus the Labour Party unelectable with him as leader. The likelihood of the governing Conservatives winning the 2020 general election has increased. Impacts Corbyn is likely to back continued UK EU membership in the referendum, helping to protect him from an early party coup. Because of his previous ambivalence, Corbyn's backing for continued EU membership will make it harder for the left to back 'Brexit'. Foreign policy issues will be among the most difficult under Corbyn, both within the party and with the government. Given the government's small majority, Corbyn's win will make parliamentary support for air strikes against Syrian targets harder to secure. Corbyn's win is unlikely to restore Labour's fortunes in Scotland, potentially boosting support for independence.

Opposition will target Skopje's ethnic Albanian allies

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Common Ground ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The North ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Democracy

Significance In an interview to Alsat, the TV channel that has most influence among North Macedonia's Albanians, Mickoski argued that overcoming the present government was of common interest to both the North Macedonian and Albanian electoral blocs. Mickoski and VMRO are clearly buoyed by the opposition New Democracy (ND) victory in Greek parliamentary elections on July 7. They are trying to emulate ND's winning tactic by capitalising on the weaknesses of Prime Minister Zoran Zaev's government and growing dissatisfaction in North Macedonia. Impacts The government has been unable to stabilise the country, with government and opposition failing to agree on even minimal common ground. This is likely to lead to a new bout of external pressure and initiatives to break the internal political deadlock. Skopje's stalling on reform and the chill in relations with neighbours weaken its chances to get a date for EU membership negotiations.

Migrant crisis to complicate Cameron's EU negotiation

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Labour Party ◽  
House Of Commons ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
The Government

Significance As intended, the changes will temporarily ease the Conservative Party's internal atmosphere, most importantly before the October annual party conference. However, they are unlikely to alter the fundamentals of the referendum or its outcome. The more significant internal party battle will be over the terms of Prime Minister David Cameron's EU membership renegotiation. Impacts The government could still face a September 7 House of Commons defeat over 'purdah', despite its reversal on the issue. This would boost eurosceptic elements in the Labour Party before the September 12 leadership election result. Cameron's wish to discourage migration from the Middle East could intensify his foreign policy focus on the region.

COVID-19 may give Lebanon’s premier a short-term boost

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Poverty Line ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Breathing Space ◽  
The Government

Significance This came shortly after Prime Minister Hassan Diab addressed the nation, promising a 1.2-trillion-Lebanese pound (400-million-dollar) stimulus plan -- although it was unclear how this would be funded. The pandemic has in some ways provided a breathing space for Diab’s controversial, two-month-old cabinet, which was already facing a dire debt-driven economic crisis and popular unrest. It has focused national attention and allowed the government to demonstrate competence in its response -- managing the return of many Lebanese expatriates and since March 21 implementing a lockdown that has kept case numbers relatively low. Impacts The Lebanese pound is set to devalue further. With no realistic rescue plan for businesses, the economic effects of the lockdown could push many more people below the poverty line. The security services’ covert campaign against protests leaders could lead to more disorganised protests when the country reopens. Hezbollah could further disengage from its military role in Syria, focusing on protecting its community and domestic position.

Charges will test fragile new Macedonian government

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Public Procurement ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Social Democrat ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Absolute Priority ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Procurement Procedure ◽  
The Government

Significance The 17 cases concern abuse of institutional capacities, abuse of office and violation of public procurement procedure. Janeva indicated that she might ask for the detention of 18 individuals including a party leader, widely believed to be Nikola Gruevski of the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) and his closest associates. Gruevski was quick to argue that Janeva's move was politically motivated, and said he was ending his "toleration" of the government led by Social Democrat (SDSM) leader Zoran Zaev, raising the spectre of another spate of VMRO-orchestrated demonstrations. Impacts Zaev is likely to move resolutely against 'Gruevski's oligarchs' but this may not eliminate clientelism, as SDSM has had its own favourites. NATO membership is an absolute priority for the new government, mindful that EU membership is likely to take much longer. While relations with Bulgaria and Greece are improving, relations with Serbia have suffered since Zaev's coming to power.

Canada’s NDP will decide fate of Trudeau government

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sick Leave ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Green Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Resource Sector ◽  
New Democratic Party

Significance Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had prorogued parliament. The throne speech requires a vote of confidence in the government. If the government loses, a snap election can follow. Neither the Conservatives nor Bloc Quebecois will support the speech, so all eyes are now on the New Democratic Party (NDP). Impacts Lack of attention to western issues in the speech will fan alienation in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The speech’s green economy emphasis and lack of resource sector support means further projects will probably end or be cancelled. Liberal desire to avoid an election may see significant concessions to the NDP in healthcare, childcare and sick leave. The stated intention to go deeper into debt and lack of a clear fiscal plan may undermine Canada’s credit rating.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

Jordan’s king will face rising popular pressures

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
House Arrest ◽  
Security Services ◽  
Official Position ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Video Material

Significance Former Crown Prince Hamzah was placed under house arrest on April 3, as 20 other people were detained. His release of audio and video material that undermined the official position embarrassed the government, and the recent public reconciliation leaves his status unclear. Impacts Despite the aspersions cast on Riyadh, Gulf states will send further financial aid to boost stability and compete for influence. Another government reshuffle and further changes within the security services are likely. Relations between Abdullah and Hamzah will remain troubled, as the latter seeks to remain relevant in case an opportunity presents itself.

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