Central bank digital currency launch is getting closer

Significance Fed Chair Jerome Powell is lukewarm on digital currencies but the multiple impacts of COVID-19, and the progress of China and other states on CBDCs, have reignited calls for a digital dollar. Impacts A CBDC will give governments a new policy tool, allowing the distribution and monitoring of aid nationally and internationally. Governments will have to collaborate closely with private-sector technology platforms to bring a CBDC to the masses. A digital yuan or dollar will foster the digitalisation of assets and pave the way for more regulatory scrutiny of cryptocurrencies. A digital euro is at a similar stage to a digital dollar; the first CBDC will see the EU accelerating its plan to digitalise the euro.

Significance Market sectors under scrutiny include buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) platforms, cryptocurrency exchanges and digital wallets. All have seen a recent leap in popularity, driven in part by COVID-related concerns but mostly by the mainstream interest in alternative payment methods, leaving regulators concerned. Impacts The Treasurer is likely to gain extended powers to plug gaps in regulatory policy and address convergence issues. Liquidity concerns over cryptocurrency trading could be overcome through a central bank digital currency. Concerns over lost tax revenue and consumer protection, as well as the need to contain market risk, are driving reform efforts.


Subject EU direction post-Brexit. Significance Some Europhiles believe that the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU removes a veto-wielding disruptor, thereby enabling the EU to achieve deeper political and economic integration. However, opposition to integration will remain strong, with former UK policy allies in the EU now looking to occupy the ground left by the United Kingdom. Impacts German-French hopes to create European champion firms to bolster EU competition will strengthen following Brexit. The relative weight in the EU of countries opposed to using sanctions as a foreign policy tool, such as Italy and Hungary, will now grow. Future defence and security initiatives could be established outside EU structures in order to accommodate the United Kingdom.


Significance Moldova's weak economy is currently embroiled in the midst of a banking crisis which has seen 1 billion dollars go missing from three of the nation's biggest banks. In total, this amounts to a loss of 20% of Moldova's GDP. Moldova's central bank employed US investigative consultancy firm Kroll to find the money and its report has now been made available to the public. The authorities have detained one of Moldova's richest men, Ilan Shor, as part of the investigation. Impacts The government's political will to stay the course of cooperation with the EU will provide incentives for the latter to support Moldova. Failure to find and return the missing 1 billion dollars could lead to more protests and political instability. A high-profile anti-corruption drive is likely to be announced and a new international investigation will be launched in mid-May.


Significance Agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Russia, China and the United States) on the former's nuclear programme in July 2015 has been heralded as a success for economic sanctions. They had a considerable economic impact and created a window of opportunity for negotiation. However, each sanctions regime must be considered on a case-by-case basis. Impacts Sanctions will require more systematic assessments of negative side-effects if they are to remain a viable foreign policy tool. Similar success with North Korea is unlikely owing to its commercial and political isolation, and China's support for the regime. Russia is also less likely than Iran to bend to EU sanctions given difficulties maintaining unity within the EU. Russia's ability to diversify trade partners and create domestic alternatives also make sanctions less likely to be effective. Sanctions on Syria are unlikely to succeed owing to the low success rates of sanctions in resolving armed conflicts.


2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peterson K. Ozili

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to gain some insight into central bank digital currency research by reviewing the recent advances in central bank digital currency (CBDC) research in a way that would help researchers, policy makers and practitioners to take a closer look at CBDC. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a systematic literature review methodology. Findings The review shows a general consensus that a CBDC is a liability of the central bank and it has cash-like attributes. The review also presents the motivation and benefits of issuing a CBDC such as the need to increase financial inclusion, the need to improve the conduct of monetary policy and to foster efficient digital payments. The review also shows that many central banks are researching the potential to issue CBDCs due to its many benefits. However, a number of studies have called for caution against over-optimism about the potential benefits of CBDC due to the limiting nature of CBDC design and its inability to meet multiple competing goals. Suggested areas for future research are identified such as the need to find the optimal CBDC design that meets all competing objectives, the need for empirical evidence on the effect of CBDC on the cost of credit and financial stability, and the need to find a balance between limiting the CBDC holdings of users and allowing users to hold as much CBDC as they want, and there is a need to undertake country-specific and regional case studies of CBDC design. Originality/value This review paper offers new areas for further research in central bank digital currencies.


Subject The chances of political game-change by the 2018 elections. Significance Governing Fidesz has lost the political momentum it gained from its tough stance on refugees. Its response to the widely supported teachers' movement and scandals at the Hungarian Central Bank (MNB) have sapped its popularity. Fatigue with a party that has ruled Hungary single-handedly since 2010 gives the opposition a chance to challenge its hegemony. Impacts Fidesz will maintain its combative position towards the EU on refugee quotas to regain its lost popularity. Jobbik's ideological moderation will attract undecided voters unless it succumbs to internal divisions. Left-wing parties may draw on civil society opposition movements and organise referendums on controversial issues.


Significance This comes as the worsening economic crisis today caused Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh to end fuel subsidies, abolishing a preferential exchange rate for imports. The EU is also threatening recalcitrant leaders with sanctions. Impacts It remains possible that Aoun and his allies in Shia movement Hezbollah may instead opt to retain the caretaker government of Hassan Diab. The reforms required for large structural loans will not happen with current elites in charge, as they would endanger patronage networks. Spontaneous riots and violence are increasingly likely as the economic collapse continues.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus Solberg Söilen ◽  
Lamiae Benhayoun

PurposeThe authors investigate household acceptance of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) by drawing on the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology and institutional trust theory.Design/methodology/approachThe authors build a research model including six hypotheses and quantitatively analyze it using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and importance–performance map analysis (IPMA) based on 282 answers to a survey questionnaire.FindingsThe continuous adoption of CBDCs by households is highly probable and is fostered by its expected high performance, the social recommendations and the existence of facilitating conditions. Nevertheless, institutions' efforts to propose a flexible and understandable currency can benefit its adoption only if these institutions also strive to build households' trust in the currency's system.Originality/valueThe authors provide a full review of the emerging literature on CBDCs and suggest that digital currency offerings can be divided into centralized, semi-centralized and de-centralized control in a meaningful taxonomy. The authors also complement extant studies on CBDCs that mostly apprehend its operational challenges by focusing on the customer side and provide implications to the launching of CBDCs by uncovering the customer-specific determinants of their adoption.


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