Niger power transition will be stable

Significance With no candidate scoring more than 50%, the election now heads to a second round on February 21. Campaigning for the second round will run from January 29 to February 19. Following the elections on February 21, provisional results are expected by February 26. Impacts The new president, whether Bazoum or Ousmane, will be keen to preserve strong ties with France, the EU and the United States. Rising insecurity will be a key feature for the next presidency. Maradi, Tillabery, Tahoua and Diffa regions will see rising numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons.

Significance The conference is designed to resolve conflicts between the politically powerful military and several ethnically based armed groups. The talks come months before Myanmar holds a general election, which will likely result in State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) retaining control of the civilian portion of government. Impacts China will continue to support different ethnic insurgent groups while also delivering on infrastructure projects in Myanmar. Myanmar will likely become more embroiled in rivalries between China and the United States, and China and India. As violence endures in parts of the country, the number of internally displaced persons will increase.


Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.


Author(s):  
Richard Oloruntoba ◽  
Ruth Banomyong

PurposeThis “thought paper” is written by the special issue editors as a part of the five papers accepted and published in response to the special issue call for papers on logistics and SCM in the context of relief for refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in theJournal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the special issue on “refugee logistics” and analyse the nature and challenges of displacement from a displaced person’s perspective. The paper also argues for a more critical appreciation of the role and value that research in logistics, operations and supply chain management (LOSCM) can play in the delivery of services and care for refugees and IDPs from the perspective of preparedness and logistics planning of humanitarian organisations. The paper further outlines basic challenges to undertaking innovative, boundary pushing valuable and impactful research on “refugee logistics” given the difficult ideological, political and policy context in which “refugee logistics research” will be undertaken. The paper also advocates for more critical research in humanitarian logistics (HL), that explicitly acknowledges its ontological, epistemological and methodological limitations even when ethically sound. The paper concludes by suggesting a future research agenda for this new sub-field of humanitarian logistics research.Design/methodology/approachConceptual paper utilising viewpoints, literature reviews as well as original ideas and thoughts of the authors.FindingsThe new field of “refugee logistics research” is important. It has been neglected in humanitarian logistics research for too long. Hence, there needs to be more research in this sub-field of humanitarian logistics.Research limitations/implicationsThis is a “thought paper”. It is the basic conceptual ideas of the authors. While it is not based on empirical work or data collection, it is based on a comprehensive literature research and analysis.Social implicationsThis paper advocates for the universal human rights of IDPs and refugees and their dignity, and how LOSCM can contribute to upholding such dignity.Originality/valueIt contributes indirectly to logistics policy and refugee policy as well as logistics service quality and advocacy for human rights and human dignity.


Significance In 2020 the European Commission appointed a Chief Trade Enforcement Officer for the first time, signalling that Brussels is intent on enhancing its capacity to enforce standards agreed in trade deals. However, the EU's experience with South Korea suggests that holding trade partners to account over breaching standards will be difficult. Impacts Relations with trade partners could deteriorate if the EU is seen to be aggressive in enforcing its standards. Concern over China’s willingness to improve labour and environmental standards could impede ratification the EU-China investment agreement. The EU may be reluctant to sanction some partners, such as the United States, that breach labour or environmental standards.


Significance The United States has already committed, in an unprecedented deal with China in November 2014, to reducing its emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 (an improvement on its previous 17% goal). China in return pledged that its emissions would peak around 2030. This agreement is a game-changer for combating global climate change, since the two countries are the world's largest sources of carbon emissions, together accounting for 40% of the total, and were not covered under the now-expired Kyoto Protocol. Impacts Washington is poised to reclaim its place, lost after Kyoto, as a leader in global efforts against climate change. US-China climate cooperation initiatives could serve as templates for other developing countries. There are new opportunities for trilateral cooperation involving the EU. Fears that the bilateral agreement makes the UNFCCC obsolete are unwarranted, but it could preclude more ambitious efforts.


Subject Chinese FDI into Europe. Significance China's hosting of the G20 summit on September 4-5 came as it is recalibrating its foreign economic strategy, becoming a major investor in the West and particularly the EU. With a few notable exceptions, EU governments have been keen to encourage those investments. Impacts While China will continue to relax restrictions on investments into its domestic economy, it is unlikely to reciprocate fully to the EU. Sectors China considers strategic, including defence equipment and infrastructure, will remain out of bounds to foreign companies. Concerns about the geostrategic risk of Chinese investments appear to resonate more strongly in Australia and the United States than the EU.


Significance Boko Haram violence affects thousands of people in Nigeria and neighbouring countries. The group appeared to be close to defeat in 2015, but violence has increased in recent months amid a factional split that increases rather than reduces the threat. Impacts The Boko Haram crisis will not fundamentally affect Nigeria's electoral politics in the lead-up to the 2019 poll. The regional humanitarian crisis will likely worsen further, with internally displaced persons (IDP) camps frequent targets of attack. Growing violence is nonetheless unlikely to disrupt life in Nigeria’s political and economic centres, such as Abuja and Lagos.


Subject Erdogan’s visit to Serbia. Significance The Turkish president’s visit to Serbia on October 9-11 was much publicised. Recep Tayyip Erdogan received a hero’s welcome at a rally in Novi Pazar, where he appeared alongside Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. Both governments are keen to boost economic ties. Impacts Size and location make Serbia a key economic and diplomatic partner for Turkey in former Yugoslavia. The Turkish state will continue to claim leadership over Balkan Muslims and seek to contain the influence of radical Islam. All Balkan governments will seek good ties with Turkey and to minimise any fallout from Erdogan’s spat with the EU and the United States.


Significance The presidency will put Romania's isolation in the spotlight. It has no backers in the EU prepared to overlook its escalating retreat from democratic and reform commitments, and there is no sign that the United States is prepared to act as a counterweight. Impacts Romania is ill-prepared for the presidency while political warfare at home will absorb government energies. It is likely that real decision-making will reside in Brussels with Romania having no more than a ceremonial role. Dragnea’s hostility to Brussels makes a tough EU response likely in response to more creeping authoritarianism.


Subject MiFID II implementation and compliance Significance The EU’s flagship investor protection reform -- the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II) -- will come into force on January 3, 2018, Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU Commissioner responsible for financial stability, confirmed on October 17, saying that there would not be a further delay. Despite already having been given an extra year's extension, banks are struggling to comply in time because of the directive's complexity. Regulators, too, are behind in expanding their capacity to enforce it. Impacts Firms across the world that do any of their business within the EU will have to comply, not just those registered in the EU. All firms trading in financial instruments must comply but those where this is a small part of their business may be caught unawares. MiFID II will come into effect before the United Kingdom leaves the EU and is likely to be written into UK law post-Brexit. The United States is keen to deregulate, but US firms whose EU activity is not compliant will be punished, possibly harming US-EU relations.


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