Balance of power in East Africa is shifting

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Mediation Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Stage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ugandan Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Kiir's ally, the Ugandan government, yesterday publicly urged him to sign. However, Kampala's credibility among regional neighbours is under strain given the presence of its troops supporting the Juba government. Elsewhere, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has played an unconvincing role in the thwarted mediation process in Burundi between the government and opposition parties. These two crises have highlighted Uganda's dwindling effectiveness on the regional stage. At the same time, Kenya, supported by its relationship with Ethiopia, has begun to take on the leadership mantle. Impacts Rwanda's government will continue to enjoy a more productive relationship with Kenya than Uganda. However, Burundi's crisis keeps complicating regional ties, with Tanzania and Burundi suspecting that Rwanda had a role in the failed coup. Rwanda's poor relations with Tanzania may be healed when the latter's current president steps down ahead of October polls.

Uganda’s opposition will gain ground despite poll loss

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The opposition has rejected the results and is preparing legal challenges to Museveni’s victory. Impacts NRM internal cohesion will fray as Museveni becomes a more polarising figure in national politics. The NRM will increasingly try to co-opt opponents to neutralise the growing momentum and collaboration among opposition parties. The government will likely launch developmental efforts to tackle youth unemployment and thus avert unrest.

Guinea’s constitutional crisis may escalate further

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance The National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) coalition, a grouping of opposition parties and civil society groups, has vowed to continue protests until the government drops its plans. A referendum over a new constitution could be held as early as December alongside planned legislative elections. Impacts The crisis could put the economy under growing pressure, resulting in reduced international investment and potential aid freezes. The worsening economic climate could see public-sector strikes intensify, particularly in the education sector. Persistent protests may trigger defections from the governing Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) and its allies. A potential compromise is that Conde pursues a new constitution as a legacy project, while agreeing to abandon any third-term bid.

Nicaragua pandemic downplaying is a political gamble

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Social Impacts ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
Economic And Social Impacts ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Some initiatives have been introduced to help counter the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, but the government’s actions appear to be driven less by the need to address the health crisis than by a desire to shore up political support ahead of elections next year. Impacts Opposition parties are beginning to forge electoral alliances in the hope of benefitting from popular frustration with the government. Trade and investment into Nicaragua will remain minimal, with external firms wary about the potential prevalence of COVID-19. The outcome of the US presidential elections in November will affect the potential for US aid and investment.

Reforms will strengthen policy implementation in China

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Conflicts Of Interest ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

Subject Reforms to the relationship betwen central and local government in China. Significance The government last month issued two blueprints for a sweeping reorganisation of the country's bureaucracy (here and here, links in Chinese). They include policies that significantly alter the balance of power between central and local government institutions. These aim to overcome foot-dragging and poor policy implementation at local levels by improving incentives and supervision, and eliminating overlapping responsibilities and conflicts of interest. Impacts With the backing of an increasingly powerful Xi, much of the agenda is likely to be implemented. In key policy areas such as the environment, local bureaus should have more reliable access to funding. New taxes and constraints on borrowing should strengthen local government finances and help reduce their debt burden. Local governments may have less leeway to offer business incentives such as tax breaks and other regulatory incentives.

Bolivia split opposition suggests another Morales win

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Stage ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Political update. Significance Primaries are to be held on January 27 to define candidates for the October presidential elections. In practice, these are largely perfunctory since most contending parties have already selected their slates for president and vice-president. Incumbent President Evo Morales leads in opinion polls, but opposition parties continue to claim that his candidacy is unconstitutional, citing the results of a referendum on presidential term limits held in February 2016. Impacts The opposition can unite around the bid to stop Morales running, but it suffers strong personal rivalries. The plethora of old faces challenging Morales will complicate any efforts to campaign based on calls for fresh politics. Bolivia’s continued strong economic growth will assist Morales. Morales will become increasingly isolated on the wider regional stage, particularly as Venezuela’s crisis deteriorates.

scholarly journals In the context of mediation, is safeguarding mediator neutrality and party autonomy more important than ensuring a fair settlement?

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-175
Author(s):  
Katherine Chalkey ◽  
Martin Green
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Mediation Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Party Autonomy ◽  
Narrative Approaches ◽  
Application Requirements ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Insight Into

Purpose This paper aims to explore the appropriate role and approach of mediators and investigate whether mediator neutrality and party autonomy should prevail over mediators’ obligations to remain neutral where non-intervention would result in unfair settlements. Design/methodology/approach The paper arises from polarising and paradoxical opinions of the legitimacy of mediator intervention. This paper relies upon theories proposed in peer-reviewed journals, together with secondary data. Findings Mediator neutrality has no consistent or comprehensible meaning and is not capable of coherent application. Requirements for mediator neutrality encourage covert influencing tactics by mediators which itself threatens party autonomy. Mediator intervention ensures ethical and moral implementation of justice, removal of epistemological implications of subjective fairness and compensation for lack of pure procedural justice in the mediation process. Party autonomy requires mediators to intervene ensuring parties adequately informed of the law and equal balance of power. Research limitations/implications Peer-reviewed journals and secondary data give meaningful insight into perceptions, opinions and beliefs concerning mediator neutrality, party autonomy and fair outcomes. These data comprised unstructured-interviews and questionnaires containing “open-ended” questions. Practical implications Mediator neutrality and party autonomy are less important than fair settlements. Social implications Mediator neutrality should be given a contextual meaning; mediation should be more transparent affording the parties opportunity to select a particular type of mediator; transformative and narrative approaches to mediation should be further developed. Originality/value This paper exposes the myth of mediator neutrality – a popular concept demanded by and anticipated by the parties but which is practically impossible to deliver. It also shows the need for mediator intervention to ensure a fair outcome.

Ethiopia’s civil war may unravel regional geopolitics

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Government

Significance It has also seriously damaged Ethiopia’s international and regional political standing, weakening Addis Ababa’s position in the trilateral talks with Egypt and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and creating new flashpoints along the Ethiopia-Sudan border, while triggering shifts in alliances that have effectively tilted the regional balance of power against Ethiopia. Impacts The government may consider dialogue with domestic political forces (other than the TPLF) to ease international and domestic pressure. Continued geopolitical jockeying between Sudan and Egypt, and Ethiopia and Eritrea, could ease regional pressure on South Sudan. Concern over the fallout from the Tigray conflict may also complicate Ethiopian relations with Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda.

Reforms will strengthen Singapore opposition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Constitutional Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Constitutional Changes ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Constitutional reform in Singapore. Significance Parliament is expected in August to receive recommendations on electoral and constitutional changes that will affect opposition politics and executive powers. The government raised the initiatives in parliament in January; Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said they would be beneficial to Singapore and its government. However, the measures are also likely to benefit the People's Action Party (PAP), which has ruled Singapore since independence in 1965. Impacts Presidential elections are unlikely to become more competitive. Opposition parties would gain parliamentary exposure if the reform recommendations are enacted. Government scrutiny of corporations' activities in the community and local politics will intensify.

Close vote will bring instability to Montenegro

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Coalition Building ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
The Government ◽  
Marked Drop ◽  
Public Opposition ◽  
Coup Attempt ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Djukanovic has dominated Montenegrin politics since the first multiparty elections in 1990. Standing aside may be calculated to ease post-election coalition-building negotiations, since Djukanovic is a divisive figure. However, he is likely to influence the government behind the scenes as DPS president. The elections, the most closely contested since independence in 2006, revealed a deeply divided electorate. Opposition parties have alleged a manufactured crisis after the chief of police announced the arrest of 20 Serbian nationals accused of plotting to destabilise the country. Impacts Belgrade's support for Podgorica's allegations of a coup attempt will continue the close relations between the DPS and Serbia's government. Relations with Moscow will remain cool after the government blamed pro-Russian elements opposed to Montenegro joining NATO for the 'coup'. However, a marked drop in Russian tourism or sudden pull-out of Russian investors, whose presence is highly visible, is unlikely. NATO membership is likely to go ahead, with a discernible weakening of public opposition even in quarters previously strongly opposed. Increased instability would slow European integration, which might lose pace further should the opposition unexpectedly form a government.

Land sale scandal in Japan will have broader impact

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private School ◽  
Civil Service ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Land Sale ◽  
Political Scandal ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject The 'Moritomo Gakuen' scandal. Significance A political scandal has re-emerged concerning the sale of government land at a heavy discount to a nationalist private school operator reportedly linked to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife, Akie. The latest revelation is that the finance ministry falsified documents to conceal Akie's involvement. The opposition parties are divided and weak in terms of their numbers in parliament, but they have managed to use the events of recent days to destabilise Abe. Impacts This and other cases of misrepresentation will further shake public trust in the government. Trust in the political impartiality of the civil service will also be damaged. Even if Abe survives and is re-elected, damage to his ‘brand’ could undermine his campaign to revise Japan's constitution.

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