Lebanon’s economy has further to fall

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Reforms ◽  
Social Tensions ◽  
The Imf

Significance The central bank has struggled to address a deep financial crisis that, exacerbated by COVID-19, has impoverished a whole population. In addition to complex exchange controls, it has set banks an end-February deadline to increase their capital, after wealthy stakeholders successfully resisted an earlier proposed ‘bail-in’ of depositors to resolve structural losses. Impacts The IMF will await results of a stalled central bank audit before considering a financial support package -- also requiring fiscal reforms. There is minimal chance that an effective, reformist government will be formed. In the absence of any clear direction from above, social tensions will likely see a sharp and violent increase.

Ghana's IMF bailout to persist despite souring ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Financing ◽  
Electricity Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Activity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.

United Arab Emirates growth may depend on transparency

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Initial Level ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Transparency ◽  
Fiscal Reforms ◽  
Current Deficit

Significance The United Arab Emirates (UAE) economy is increasingly diversified, not least with the imposition of VAT since January 1 -- albeit at a low initial level of 5%. Fiscal transparency has not necessarily kept pace, especially in ad hoc financial support both among the emirates and externally to Gulf neighbours. Impacts Any reduction in financial support from Abu Dhabi through GCC funds might endanger Bahrain’s currency peg. Increased clarity on UAE commitments could help to stabilise weaker economies in Bahrain and Oman. The federal government is likely to convert its current deficit to a surplus of around 2% in 2018. Fiscal reforms and innovations will not challenge Abu Dhabi’s financial dominance among the seven emirates. Plans to privatise state-owned firms will create further pressure to boost transparency.

Politics will not mar Paraguay's economic outlook

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Imf

Significance The Central Bank has revised upwards its 2017 growth forecast from 3.7% to 4.2%. Forecasts by the IMF and World Bank remain lower at around 3.3% and 3.6% respectively, based primarily on an expectation of low growth in Brazil. Impacts Agricultural exports will help sustain growth this year. Although debt is manageable, there are few prospects for raising low tax revenues. Investigations into the awarding of contracts are likely to put infrastructure investments on hold.

Donor commitments could kickstart Madagascar recovery

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Credit Facility ◽  
The Government ◽  
Made In ◽  
Governance Reforms

Significance The aim was to build on progress made in July when the government secured a three-year IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme. The country’s central bank reported that donors committed to over 6.4 billion dollars in financial support, with subsequent estimates as high as 10 billion dollars. Impacts Passing budgetary measures will prove difficult due to a thin parliamentary majority. The government will likely prioritise EU reform and infrastructure demands -- Brussels has pledged 800 million euros over four years. Failure to implement governance reforms could lead to a suspension of IMF funding.

Beirut will need IMF support, despite political costs

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Debt Restructuring ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Force ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Costs ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Imf

Significance This followed the government’s decision to default, for the first time ever, on bonds maturing on March 9. There is a mounting controversy over whether to seek financial support from the IMF for a comprehensive debt restructuring programme, especially as COVID-19 further intensifies the economic crisis. Hezbollah, Lebanon’s dominant political force, initially vetoed any such recourse, but may be softening its stance. Impacts One possible source of support could be Qatar, which has shown a pragmatic approach to working alongside Hezbollah in the past. IMF-agreed reforms would likely impose further hardship on an already-suffering population. IMF and donor finance would at least put dollars back in the market, albeit at a higher price, and safeguard imports.

The imposing of constraints on capital flows in emerging economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 57 (5) ◽  
pp. 400-416
Author(s):  
Peter Yeoh
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Capital Controls ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
The Imf

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review the practicality and implications of capital controls in emerging economies in the international financial landscape subsequent to the 1997 Asian financial crisis (AFC) and the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Design/methodology/approach – The doctrinal approach used in this study relies primarily on primary data from relevant statutes and regulations in the capital and financial markets, and secondary data from research findings of published sources available in the public domain. It also makes concurrent use of the case study approach. Findings – The disdain over the use of capital controls by emerging economies such as Malaysia in the 1997 AFC by multilateral agencies like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since then and particularly after the 2008 GFC and the 2011/2012 European financial crisis (EFC) has been quietly and gradually transformed into a viable policy option under defined circumstances, especially at the IMF and global forums like the G20. The 1997 AFC in particular induced East Asian economies and others to strengthen the macroeconomic and financial positions, such that they were not only able to withstand the impacts of the 2008 GFC and the 2011/2012 EFC but also contributed to their gradual recoveries through their participation as net lenders to the IMF. The enhanced confidence of these emerging economies to use various capital controls without seeking IMF support spawned new thinking at the IMF to result in the introduction of policy guidelines sanctioning the use of capital controls under particular circumstances. Research limitations/implications – The paper is constrained by the usual limitations connected with qualitative studies, but this is generally mitigated by triangulation of perspectives and so on. Originality/value – This paper provides a critical overview of the pros and cons of capital controls. In particular, it analyses the implications of capital controls as a policy option for emerging economies when facing severe financial crisis. It also critically discusses how and why flowing from the aftermath of its application by Malaysia in the 1997 AFC and subsequent employment by other successful emerging economies in response to the 2008 GFC and 2011/2012 EFC, multilateral institutions such as the IMF and international forum like the G20 developed a more positive approach toward the use of capital controls.

scholarly journals Instruments for Supporting Members of the Eurozone in Overcoming the Financial Crisis Utilised by The International Monetary Fund Using the Example of Greece

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-146
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Wicha
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Efficient Operation ◽  
European Central ◽  
The International Monetary Fund ◽  
Of Greece ◽  
The Imf

The purpose of this article is to present the instruments and resources used by the International Monetary Fund to support the euro area countries in overcoming the financial crisis on the example of Greece. The article points out types of loan instruments and other measures taken by the IMF to support Greece. The author also indicates the reforms that had to be made at the IMF for a better and more efficient operation of this institution against the challenges of the global crisis. In addition, the specificity of cooperation between the IMF, the European Commission and the European Central Bank is analyzed.

IMF will drip-feed funding to drive Ukraine reforms

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
External Financing ◽  
Positive Signal ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Imf

Subject IMF conditionality as a driver for Ukrainian reforms Significance The IMF board's September 14 decision to release a 1-billion-dollar tranche to Ukraine after a delay of more than a year mixes partial acknowledgement of reforms to date with a call for swifter progress. Ukraine's heavy reliance on external financing makes IMF funding one of the few effective external instruments for keeping the reform process on track. The 2017 budget plan with a deficit of 3% of GDP reflects IMF advice. Impacts Securing IMF assistance will boost the government's domestic standing. A resumption in lending by the IMF and other international partners will send a positive signal to investors. Renewed funding is unlikely to improve Ukraine's investment outlook immediately. IMF money should allow the central bank to replenish depleted foreign reserves, reducing devaluation pressures.

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Imf ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Subject Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2017. Significance Russia's return to growth began in the final quarter of 2016. Driven by higher global oil prices, the recovery has continued at the same modest pace into the first half of 2017 and looks set to persist for the rest of the year. As oil prices are higher than estimated at the beginning of the year, official growth forecasts for 2017 from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and external organisations such as the IMF and World Bank have been revised upwards.

Pakistan will struggle to widen tax base

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
The Government

Significance He will release a mini-budget on January 23. Revenue collection in the first half of fiscal year 2018/19 (July-June) showed 3.8% annual growth. The government targets a budget deficit of 5.1% of GDP for 2018/19, down from 6.6% in 2017/18. Impacts Financial support from allies will shape Pakistan’s diplomacy, Islamabad likely to align more closely with Saudi policy. By avoiding an IMF bailout for now, Pakistan would be able to avoid US pressure during talks with the Fund. The central bank will likely undertake monetary tightening.

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