Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Imf ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Subject Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2017. Significance Russia's return to growth began in the final quarter of 2016. Driven by higher global oil prices, the recovery has continued at the same modest pace into the first half of 2017 and looks set to persist for the rest of the year. As oil prices are higher than estimated at the beginning of the year, official growth forecasts for 2017 from the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) and external organisations such as the IMF and World Bank have been revised upwards.

Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Imf

Subject Prospects for the Russian economy to end-2016. Significance The recession in Russia moderated in the first half of 2016 and may even have slowed to a halt. Government optimism about the economic outlook is shared by the IMF and World Bank, both of which have revised their GDP forecasts upwards. Improvements in economic performance will be modest for the foreseeable future, driven primarily by rising oil prices.

Politics will not mar Paraguay's economic outlook

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Imf

Significance The Central Bank has revised upwards its 2017 growth forecast from 3.7% to 4.2%. Forecasts by the IMF and World Bank remain lower at around 3.3% and 3.6% respectively, based primarily on an expectation of low growth in Brazil. Impacts Agricultural exports will help sustain growth this year. Although debt is manageable, there are few prospects for raising low tax revenues. Investigations into the awarding of contracts are likely to put infrastructure investments on hold.

Analyzing the financial and economic momentum as a result of changes in the interest rate

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 1656-1673
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Global Capitalism ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
The Interest Rate

Subject. The article discusses financial and economic momenta. Objectives. I determine financial and economic momenta as the interest rate changes in Russia. Methods. The study is based on a systems approach and the method of statistical analysis. Results. The Russian economy was found to strongly depend on prices for crude oil and natural gas, thus throwing Russia to the outskirts of the global capitalism, though keeping the status of an energy superpower, which ensures a sustainable growth in the global economy by increasing the external consumption and decreasing the domestic one. The devaluation of the national currency, a drop in tax revenue, etc. result from the decreased interest rate. They all require to increase M2 and the devalued retail loan in RUB, thus rising the GDP deflator. As for positive effects, the Central Bank operates sustainably, replenishes gold reserves and keeps the trade balance (positive balance), thus strengthening its resilience during a global drop in crude oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. The positive effects were discovered to result from a decreased in the interest rate, rather than keeping it low all the time. Conclusions and Relevance. As the interest rate may be, the financial and economic momentum in Russia depends on the volatility of the price for crude oil and natural gas. Lowering the interest rate and devaluing the national currency, the Central Bank preserves the resource structure of the Russian economy, strengthens its positions within the global capitalism and keeps its status of an energy superpower, thus reinforcing its resilience against a global drop in oil prices.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

The IMF, its mandate and influence in prevention of financial sector abuse

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 987-1011
Author(s):  
Norman Mugarura
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Secondary Data Sources ◽  
Work Done ◽  
The Imf

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to articulate the mandate of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) not least in promoting a sound legal regulatory environment for markets to operate globally and its inherent challenges. While acknowledging the plausible work done by the IMF in supporting countries to achieve their macro-economic stability, the paper articulates some of its shortcomings as a global institution. It is evident that the post-war climate in which the World Bank and IMF were created has drastically changed – which presupposes that these institutions now need to reposition themselves to reflect on contemporary global challenges accordingly. The author has argued in the past that a robust regulatory system should be devised taking into account the dynamic challenges in the market environment but also to prevent them from happening again. Design/methodology/approach The paper has utilized empirical evidence to evaluate the mandate of the IMF in addressing its dynamic challenges such as the global financial and debt crises in Europe and the USA and prevention of financial sector abuse globally. The IMF is one of the Bretton Woods Institutions charged with the oversight responsibility to enforce policies and enable countries to manage their macro-economic challenges efficiently. Findings The findings demonstrate that the IMF is as relevant and important as it was when it was created in 1945. However, there is a need for intrinsic and structural changes within this institution to continue discharging its mandate in a changed global regulatory landscape. The IMF is still crucial in fostering a fundamental stabilization function to fragile global economies in areas of financial and technical assistance, and developing requisite legal and supervisory infrastructure within fledging member countries. Research limitations/implications The paper was written by analysis of both theoretical and empirical data largely based on secondary data sources. It would have been better to first present the findings in an international conference to solicit wide views and internalize them accordingly. Practical implications While acknowledging the plausible work done by the IMF and its counterpart the World Bank in facilitating global financial markets regulation and prevention of financial sector abuse, as oversight institutions, they need to constantly review their mandate to respond robustly to their dynamic challenges such as the global and debt crises and financial sector abuse. Oversight institutions need to constantly review and adapt their mandate accordingly, if they are to discharge their varied responsibilities efficiently. They cannot stand still in the face of challenges because they will be superseded and kept at a back foot. Social implications Markets and states are embedded in each other, and the way they are regulated is of a significant importance to varied stakeholders and people. Originality/value This paper is one of its kind, is unique in its character and evaluates embedded issues using empirical evidence in a way not done in its context before. Secondary data sources have been evaluated to achieve a thoughtful analysis of the objectives of the paper.

Overreliance on IMF forecasts for India is ill-advised

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Credit Ratings ◽  
The State ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sovereign Credit ◽  
Sovereign Credit Ratings ◽  
The Imf ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Subject IMF projections on India's GDP growth between 2006 and 2013. Significance In October 2014, the IMF forecast India's GDP growth at 5.6% and 6.4% in 2014 and 2015 respectively, compared with 5.0% in 2013. Since such growth forecasts increasingly dominate discussions on the state of an economy and influence financial markets, serious questions arise about their accuracy -- and therefore their utility. Impacts Should IMF expectations of India's revival be frustrated, the Fund will call for further reform. In that case, IMF projections will be revised down, exacerbating capital flight risk. IMF projections carry more risks than benefits for countries, especially since they shape sovereign credit ratings.

Leading central banks mould investor sentiment

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Country Specific

Significance In the worst start to a year for US equities since 2008, the benchmark S&P 500 index fell 0.7% during the week ending January 10. December's employment report showed US non-farm payrolls rising by a robust 252,000, but average hourly earnings declined, accentuating deflationary fears. The dollar continued to strengthen against the euro on concerns about a possible euro crisis over Greece and the introduction of sovereign QE by the ECB. With the US Federal Reserve preparing to raise rates, investor sentiment remains fragile. Impacts The tug-of-war between central bank largesse and country-specific, geopolitical and economic risks will become more intense. Markets will focus on renewed fears of 'Grexit' and on concerns about German opposition to an ECB sovereign QE programme. The relentless oil prices slide, exacerbated by the dollar's strength, will put further strain on EM assets. The ruble is likely to weaken further, increasing the scope for contagion to other developing economies.

Ghana's IMF bailout to persist despite souring ties

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Financing ◽  
Electricity Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Activity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance Earlier this month, the government passed a bill allowing for central bank financing of the budget deficit, contravening a core requirement in its agreement with the Fund. Earlier breaches led to the fourth tranche of the bailout (worth 114 million dollars) being withheld. Impacts Other donors will withhold aid disbursements until the impasse between Accra and the IMF is resolved. The electricity crisis will continue to undermine manufacturing activity, contributing to disappointing GDP growth. Ivory Coast's pro-business reforms mean it could attract investors deterred by Ghana's economic woes. Prolonged tensions with the IMF coupled with a deterioration its Ghana's fiscal metrics may drive a credit rating downgrade.

Mexican fiscal consolidation steady despite oil price

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Significant Drop ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Subject The outlook for fiscal consolidation. Significance The significant drop in oil prices should not derail the fiscal consolidation trajectory mapped by President Enrique Pena Nieto's administration, which envisages that the debt/GDP ratio should stabilise by 2017. The fiscal hole opened by reduced oil prices has been compensated with greater taxation income and one-off revenues. Impacts Defying expectations, the oil price plunge did not push the government into an overtly contractionary fiscal correction. An arguably much-needed simplification of the cumbersome taxation regime will not take place due to the government's pledge not to alter it. Loose monetary policy from the autonomous central bank has worked in tandem with the government's fiscal stance.

Sharing globalisation gains would encourage free trade

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Ethnic Factors ◽  
The Imf

Subject The October annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank devoted attention to ailing (or even failing) globalisation. Significance Global trade growth has slowed recently, and although much of this slowdown has been due to structural factors, greater protectionism has also played a part. These factors will persist and the world will gradually adjust to a 'new normal' for global trade. The IMF, along with other multilateral agencies such as the OECD, are studying rising inequality and other factors thought to be driving the protectionist trend in order to consider ways in which gains from trade can be shared more equally in coming years. Impacts Globalisation benefits have been uneven but the benefits of moving to less free trade are likely to be no more equal. Setting policy to reinvigorate trade requires not only economic incentives to be considered, but also social, regional and ethnic factors. Technology will continue to lower transportation and communication costs, putting pressure on labour markets; robotics will add to this.

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