New law institutionalises Chinese maritime coercion

Significance The CCG is the largest maritime law-enforcement fleet in the region, and over the last decade the key actor in Beijing's incremental moves to expand on-water administrative control in the South and East China Seas. Impacts The law could prompt unit-level commanders to take more initiative in using force, though tighter discipline is likely to offset this. Japan is strengthening its own coast guard in response to China, but it will remain smaller, more lightly armed and civilian. The Philippines has issued a protest and flagged increased naval deployments, but the response will be limited because its navy is small. The new US administration will continue naval patrols in Chinese-claimed waters, with greater publicity.

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chau-Ron Wu ◽  
You-Lin Wang ◽  
Yong-Fu Lin ◽  
Shenn-Yu Chao
Keyword(s):  

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biyan Chen ◽  
Wujiao Dai ◽  
Zhizhao Liu ◽  
Lixin Wu ◽  
Pengfei Xia

Satellite remote sensing of the atmospheric water vapor distribution over the oceans is essential for both weather and climate studies. Satellite onboard microwave radiometer is capable of measuring the water vapor over the oceans under all weather conditions. This study assessed the accuracies of precipitable water vapor (PWV) products over the south and east China seas derived from the Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GMI), using radiosonde and GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) located at islands and coasts as truth. PWV measurements from 14 radiosonde and 5 GNSS stations over the period of 2014–2017 were included in the assessments. Results show that the GMI 3-day composites have an accuracy of better than 5 mm. A further evaluation shows that RMS (root mean square) errors of the GMI 3-day composites vary greatly in the range of 3∼14 mm at different radiosonde/GNSS sites. GMI 3-day composites show very good agreements with radiosonde and GNSS measured PWVs with correlation coefficients of 0.896 and 0.970, respectively. The application of GMI products demonstrates that it is possible to reveal the weather front, moisture advection, transportation, and convergence during the Meiyu rainfall. This work indicates that the GMI PWV products can contribute to various studies such as climate change, hydrologic cycle, and weather forecasting.


Significance However, China's navy already has an operational sea-based nuclear deterrent based on Hainan Island. The deployment of nuclear-armed submarines, and their need to reach the mid-Pacific to threaten the continental United States, makes the South China Sea an arena not just of maritime disputes but of US-China military rivalry. Impacts The strategic importance of the Philippines, Taiwan and Singapore to the United States will increase. A new defence agreement with the Philippines will, as of last month, support US military activities in the area. Washington will encourage greater Japanese involvement in the South China Sea; as long as Shinzo Abe is prime minister, Japan will oblige.


Subject The outlook for deepening defence links between Japan and Malaysia. Significance Chinese Politburo member Yu Zhengsheng warned visiting Japanese lawmakers on June 29 that the South China Sea maritime disputes have "nothing to do with Japan". This comes amid new developments in South-east Asian governments' efforts to strengthen security cooperation with Japan. Among them is the agreement between Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on May 25 to elevate bilateral ties to the level of 'Strategic Partnership'. This reflects Malaysia's growing concern over China's actions in the South China Sea, which are increasingly expanding southwards, affecting Malaysian-claimed territorial waters. Malaysian officials on June 9 announced a complaint to China over a Chinese coast guard vessel near Luconia Shoals. Impacts The Philippines's armed forces are less powerful than Malaysia's, implying more scope to develop Japan-Philippines defence ties. Vietnam, and perhaps Indonesia, may be the next ASEAN countries to seek deeper defence ties with Japan. Malaysian criticism of China over the South China Sea could see a more assertive ASEAN over disputed maritime claims.


Subject The South China Sea dispute. Significance China and the United States increased their military activities in the South China Sea in January and February, with US ‘freedom of navigation operations’ (FONOPs) pushing back on Chinese maritime jurisdictional claims in the area. The Philippines before June 2016 contested China’s expansive claims. Increased rivalry between Beijing and Washington in South-east Asia raises the risk of a dangerous naval confrontation. Impacts The Philippines will continue to solicit investment from China. China is unlikely to undertake actions in the South China Sea that would seriously irk the Philippines. South-east Asian countries will emphasise the importance of the region not becoming a theatre for China-US rivalry.


Subject The maritime dispute between China and Malaysia in the South China Sea. Significance The inaugural 'One Belt and One Road China-Malaysia Business Dialogue' took place on July 15. 'One Belt and One Road' is the cooperative infrastructure investment initiative that the Xi Jinping administration presents as its signature foreign policy initiative. Yet for many in the region it has been overshadowed by Beijing's maritime assertiveness. Even China's normally cordial relations with Malaysia are now under threat from tensions at sea, where China Coast Guard ships at a disputed reef have prompted a low-key but serious standoff. Impacts Relations between Beijing and Kuala Lumpur will face their first serious test since the early 1990s. China is likely to claim Luconia Breakers as its southernmost territory under international law. Opposition politicians in Malaysia will put pressure on the Najib administration to resist China's actions. ASEAN will be more proactive in the South China Sea disputes under Malaysia's chairmanship.


Significance A sweeping victory for the Philippines has dismantled any legal basis for expansive Chinese claims across much of the South China Sea. Impacts How the Philippines administration responds will shape how all affected countries interpret Philippine foreign and strategic policy to 2022. Manila may make its military more externally facing, reflected in equipment priorities; internal security capacity could suffer. More US 'freedom of navigation' exercises in the South China Sea are likely. Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam will assess implications for their maritime disagreements with China. The ruling will exacerbate rifts in ASEAN over relations with China.


Subject Manila's case against Beijing at the UNCLOS arbitral tribunal. Significance An international tribunal is expected this month or next to rule on a landmark case brought by the Philippines against China over the South China Sea issue. The decision will have far-reaching reverberations for the South China Sea, the Law of the Sea, and international law and politics in East Asia. US officials have expressed concern that it will exacerbate tensions in the region as China responds assertively to an adverse finding. Impacts The case may provide the long-awaited legal definition of an 'island' under the UNCLOS. The arbitration could 'legalise' China's nine-dash line. The tribunal is most likely to uphold Philippine claims in waters around Scarborough Shoal. It will probably reject Chinese assertions of 'historic rights', but some key findings will favour China.


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