US Iraq policy will aim at adaptive response to threat

Significance This followed a February 15 attack targeting US troops stationed at Erbil airport, in the Kurdistan region, after which the administration launched its first use of force, targeting Syrian positions of Iran-backed Iraqi militias. Beyond this, Baghdad’s place in Biden's Middle East policy strategy is still unspecified. Impacts Washington’s new focus on multilateralism will encourage a greater military role for NATO in Iraq. Biden will restore access to the Special Immigrant Visa programme for Iraqis who have provided "faithful and valuable" US service. Yet again, pressing security concerns will likely hinder the desire in Washington to reduce its focus on Middle East issues.

Significance In October, Netanyahu travelled to Oman -- the first visit there by an Israeli premier in decades. In the past few years, relations between Israel and most of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states have warmed, but this has not been publicised. More recently, GCC states have become less concerned whether their relations with Israel become public knowledge. Meanwhile, the United States is encouraging rapprochement as one of the anchors of its Middle East policy. Impacts Netanyahu may soon visit Bahrain, the first public visit by an Israeli leader to the country. Relations with Qatar will follow a separate track to other Gulf states. A political opening would create economic opportunities.


Significance He also withdrew Turkey from a convention protecting women and sexual minorities, while the chief prosecutor filed a case to close the main Kurdish opposition party. These back-to-back moves caused shock waves at home and abroad, further tarnishing Turkey’s international image. Impacts The loss of investor confidence in the government’s handling of the economy will be profound and lasting, pushing it deeper into crisis. The government’s openly anti-feminist, anti-LGBT stance may contribute to further violence and abuse against women and sexual minorities. Fresh protests are likely and could turn violent, especially in the Kurdish provinces, where repression will be heavy-handed. Western responses will be limited, given Turkey’s importance: as a NATO member; in controlling EU migration; and for US Middle East policy.


Significance The threat to kill the two men came on January 20, during a diplomatic tour of the Middle East by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Impacts Japan's united front with Washington will limit its efforts to portray itself as a neutral and independent party. This crisis will strengthen Abe's wish for greater Japanese influence in the region, especially the Gulf. The Middle East will be an arena in Japan's competition with China for influence and resource security.


Subject France's Middle East policy. Significance French President Francois Hollande appointed former Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault as foreign minister in a cabinet reshuffle on February 11. Ayrault takes over from Laurent Fabius, who personally monitored several key Middle East issues. Impacts Ayrault may prioritise EU issues, and favour a common European approach to international crises. His team may be willing to increase cooperation with Russia on Syria, but other actors in the decision-making process will disagree. Fabius's departure should ease tensions with the Obama administration -- especially Secretary of State John Kerry -- on the Middle East. With Jean-Yves le Drian staying on as defence minister, arms export policy in the Middle East will not change.


Significance Trump’s controversial Middle East policy decisions have met bipartisan criticism in the US Senate, but in the House of Representatives -- where the influence of the party grassroots is more keenly felt -- Republican congressmen have staunchly backed the president. There are growing partisan differences towards other countries, a notable shift from previous decades when party was not a clear indicator for preference. This may have a major impact on Washington’s future relationship with the Middle East. Impacts Foreign lobbying efforts in Washington will increasingly be targeted on a partisan basis. Russian foreign policy, not beholden to the vagaries of democracy, may become more influential in the Middle East. The EU could seek to play a stronger, independent regional role to replace the United States.


Significance A significant proportion of imports come from the Middle East, where security-driven supply risks -- and Saudi Arabia’s production restraint -- are also helping to drive up oil prices. The region is also an important staging post for the Belt and Road Initiative. Despite this, Beijing’s Middle East policy remains largely hands-off when it comes to political issues. Impacts China will avoid engaging in entrenched quarrels between Saudi Arabia and other regional energy producers. Traditional Western suppliers of arms to the Middle East will face increasing competition from China. Gulf instability would force China to seek more oil elsewhere and further boost its rapid development of renewables and electric vehicles.


Significance The pilot had been in captivity since his plane crashed near the ISG stronghold of Raqqa in Syria on December 24 while taking part in international coalition airstrikes against the group. Jordan's role in the coalition is particularly sensitive given its proximity to ISG-controlled areas and high levels of domestic unpopularity at its participation in the US-led alliance. Kasaesbeh's capture and brutal murder raise questions over Jordan's continuing commitment to the coalition, and of the threat ISG poses to the kingdom. Impacts Public horror at the killing will help keep ISG at the top of international government's Middle East policy-making agendas. Global jihadist criticism of the brutal method of killing may see ISG lose some support, and may benefit its rival, al-Qaida. Other Arab members of the anti-ISG coalition will remain committed in the short run, but seek to scale back their role in the longer term.


2004 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-187
Author(s):  
Donald E. Wagner

It is a common assumption in the international media that the fundamentalist Christian Right suddenly appeared on the US political scene following the 11 September 2001 tragedy, and that it became a major force in shaping US policy in the Middle East. While it is true that fundamentalist Christians have exercised considerable influence during the George W. Bush administration, their ascendance is neither new nor surprising. The movement has demonstrated political influence in the US and England intermittently for more than a hundred years, particularly in the formation of Middle East policy. This article focuses on the unique theology and historical development of Christian Zionism, noting its essential beliefs, its emergence in England during the nineteenth century, and how it grew to gain prominence in the US. The alliance of the pro-Israel lobby, the neo-conservative movement, and several Christian Zionist organizations in the US represents a formidable source of support for the more maximalist views of Israel's Likud Party. In the run-up to the 2004 US presidential elections this alliance could potentially thwart any progress on an Israeli–Palestinian peace plan in the near future. Moreover, Likud ideology is increasingly evident in US Middle East policy as a result of this alliance.


1985 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-17
Author(s):  
Stanley Hoffmann ◽  
Ghassan Bishara

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