US partisanship will damage its Middle East standing

Significance Trump’s controversial Middle East policy decisions have met bipartisan criticism in the US Senate, but in the House of Representatives -- where the influence of the party grassroots is more keenly felt -- Republican congressmen have staunchly backed the president. There are growing partisan differences towards other countries, a notable shift from previous decades when party was not a clear indicator for preference. This may have a major impact on Washington’s future relationship with the Middle East. Impacts Foreign lobbying efforts in Washington will increasingly be targeted on a partisan basis. Russian foreign policy, not beholden to the vagaries of democracy, may become more influential in the Middle East. The EU could seek to play a stronger, independent regional role to replace the United States.

Significance In October, Netanyahu travelled to Oman -- the first visit there by an Israeli premier in decades. In the past few years, relations between Israel and most of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states have warmed, but this has not been publicised. More recently, GCC states have become less concerned whether their relations with Israel become public knowledge. Meanwhile, the United States is encouraging rapprochement as one of the anchors of its Middle East policy. Impacts Netanyahu may soon visit Bahrain, the first public visit by an Israeli leader to the country. Relations with Qatar will follow a separate track to other Gulf states. A political opening would create economic opportunities.


Subject 'Brexit' polling. Significance On June 23, the pound swung wildly: final polls on whether the United Kingdom should leave the EU ('Brexit') had shown a 4-percentage-point lead for 'Remain', only for the final result to be the opposite. Pollsters have been criticised for their failure to predict both this result and the 2015 UK general election outcome, even as qualitative analysts have also been criticised for missing the results. Impacts The US presidential election is immune from most polling failures, given its hyper-coverage and the discrete decisions of swing states. US Senate and House of Representatives elections are much more difficult to poll, leading to likely market volatility in early November. Changes in communication methods are sparking debates about how a representative sample of the population can be reached best.


Subject The prospects for finalising TTIP. Significance While the EU as a whole -- the European Commission, most member states and a majority of members of the European Parliament (EP) -- appears to remain committed to a wide-ranging agreement with the United States, there are growing indications that public opposition may render the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement politically unviable. Impacts TTIP is estimated to raise the EU's GDP by 0.5%. European governments may decide that such a modest growth boost is not worth the political problems generated by the negotiations. If implemented, its terms could serve as a blueprint for future trade agreements between the EU and other countries. The deal's prospects will be diminished by the US election cycle's appeals to protectionist sentiment.


Subject EU-US ties. Significance Attracting the ire of US President Donald Trump, the US goods trade deficit with the EU has widened since 2009. While Trump blames the imbalance on the EU charging higher tariffs on its US imports than the United States charges on its EU imports, the deficit is instead driven by US demand. Most US-EU trade is between foreign affiliates and the declaration between Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in late July reaffirmed the close economic ties between the two blocs. Impacts The prospects for US exports of LNG to the EU will be higher if Chinese retaliatory restrictions remain in place. The US farm lobby will push for agriculture to be covered in the trade negotiations. The negotiations are unlikely to lead to a return to a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership-type deal. Renegotiating US-EU goods trade tariffs will necessarily involve other chapters including services or foreign investment. Escalating trade tariffs would damage the EU but would damage the United States more owing to the size of US-EU cross-border investments.


Subject New developments in relations between Taiwan, China and the United States. Significance On February 28, the US Senate unanimously passed a bill, the Taiwan Travel Act, which -- when the president signs it into law -- will allow for high-level visits by government officials between Taiwan and the United States. China immediately criticised the measure, arguing that it undercut the ‘one-China’ principle on which China-US relations are based. China threatened vague retaliatory measures against Taiwan. Impacts China will ramp up pressure on Taiwan through military activities, such as airspace violations. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen will lose support within her party as she resists calls to pursue formal independence from China. Chinese President Xi Jinping's removal of presidential term limits and other illiberal policies will deepen suspicion of China in Taiwan.


Author(s):  
Arthur Lupia

From this point of the book forward, I ask you to think about the challenges described in chapter 1 from a civic educator’s perspec­tive. That is, consider the perspective of a person who wants to increase other people’s knowledge about politics or their competence at a politically relevant task. With that perspective in mind, I first convey a few important facts about civic educators and their aspirations. Next, I present a plan for helping many of them achieve these aspirations more effectively. The plan covers the book’s main themes and offers a chapter-by-chapter description of what’s ahead. Let’s start with a brief discussion of “ignorance”—a topic that motivates many people to become civic educators. According to numerous surveys and news reports, the mass public appears to know very little about politics, government, and policy. When pollsters ask even simple questions on any of these topics, many people fail to give correct answers. For example, while nearly every adult American can name the president of the United States, many cannot recall the names of their US senators. Millions cannot easily remember which political party holds a majority of seats in the US House of Representatives or the US Senate. Many Americans give incorrect answers when asked to identify the chief justice of the United States by name. They do the same when asked about basic aspects of the US Constitution. Many provide incorrect answers to questions about who leads our nation’s closest international allies, such as the United Kingdom and Israel. Most seem not to know basic facts about our major trading partners, such as Canada and China. People provide incorrect answers or no answers at all to survey questions about all kinds of policies and politics. In “The Star Spangled Banner,” America is “the land of the free and the home of the brave,” but when asked to answer fact-based questions about policy and politics, Americans appear to be, as filmmaker Michael Moore (2010) put it, “a society of ignorant and illiterate people.”


Significance Microsoft said WikiLeaks had been in contact with them about vulnerabilities disclosed when WikiLeaks published files on March 7, the first in a series called ‘Vault 7’. This leak has been rebuked by US national security officials, but further revelations could be forthcoming. Impacts Customers may be reluctant to buy products that have previously been associated with CIA spy tools and listening devices. The revelations will damage an already strained relationship between the US government and technology firms. Privacy concerns will hinder internet regulation liberalisation between the United States and other countries, particularly in the EU.


Significance The sanctions, reviewed on a semi-annual basis, have now been extended until January 2018, despite speculation about divisions within the EU. This comes after the US Treasury imposed new sanctions on 38 individuals, companies and organisations on June 20. Impacts Russia is likely to continue efforts to sow divisions within the EU and between the EU and the United States. Future oil prices will shape Russia’s ability to weather sanctions. Russia may raise capital through bond sales and by turning to Asian investors, although this may not fully offset the effects of sanctions. Russia’s counter-sanctions -- a ban on food imports from the EU -- have led to some successful agricultural import substitution.


Significance Trump first snubbed the EU on April 30 with a mere postponement of possible tariffs and then humiliated the E3 (Germany, France and the United Kingdom) on May 8 with his decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal. This sends a highly symbolic message from the US president to his European allies: buckle or face penalties. Impacts Trump’s decisions reinforce a growing realisation in the EU that he will interpret their search for compromise as weakness. The EU faces a difficult road ahead with multiple pressures increasing, both within and outside the bloc. The growing divide between the EU and the United States will please Russia.


Subject US-China trade policy ahead. Significance Starting on August 1, the United States and China have this month imposed more import tariffs on each other’s products following the collapse of the Shanghai round of US-China trade talks. The quick reaction by both indicates that neither sees much prospect of reaching a deal. To protect domestic activity and maintain momentum for further talks, both could apply a lower tariff to products they cannot buy from elsewhere. For example, rare earths, which the United States depends on China for, remain exempt from tariffs. Impacts Worries about the overreliance on consumer spending and uncertainty over investment ahead suggest that the US downturn could accelerate. Despite suffering slower growth and employment worries, China will not simply agree a deal on the US administration’s terms. Chinese negotiators understand the US-China trade dynamics better than the US administration and will use this to their advantage. The US administration can impose 25% tariffs on its global imports of cars and parts, citing national security; this would hit the EU hard.


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