Sonko protests will embolden Senegal’s opposition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Targeted Attacks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Public Disorder ◽  
Unemployed Youth ◽  
Roll Out

Significance He had been arrested for disrupting public disorder and attending an illegal demonstration after protests erupted as he responded to a court summons concerning rape allegations. His arrest and detention has triggered wider unrest and a public backlash against President Macky Sall and his government. Impacts Sall will increase budgetary spending to try to appease the growing numbers of unemployed youth. Deep public mistrust of the government could hamper COVID-19 vaccine roll-out. With anti-French sentiment increasing, French businesses will be at risk of further targeted attacks during protests.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

Indonesia’s new investment ministry faces headwinds

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.

Resource nationalism rises in Papua New Guinea

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Internet Access ◽  
Rural And Remote ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Remote Areas ◽  
Resource Nationalism ◽  
Rural And Remote Areas ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Significance It reports less than 100 cases and one death, but official figures probably underestimate the reality. PNG’s health system was already in serious decline before the pandemic and the government acknowledges a high probability that community transmission continues. Impacts What may slow infections is the fact that much of PNG’s population lives in rural and remote areas. The roll-out of internet access to provincial cities and rural areas will help integrate PNG’s fragmented economy and society. Despite the Bougainville region voting strongly for independence in a non-binding referendum last year, actual independence is years away.

Peace deals will not reduce illegal mining in Colombia

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Gold Mining ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Illegal Mining ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Illegal mining. Significance The army this month announced the capture of two suspected members of the Clan del Golfo crime group (otherwise known as the Urabenos) in Buritica, Antioquia. The group is thought to be attempting to revive illegal mining in the area, which the government has targeted as part of a recent drive to tackle the crime. Despite increased security efforts nationwide, and the demobilisation of rebels from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), however, little immediate improvement is anticipated. Impacts Gold mining firms are particularly at risk of illegal miners and will invest heavily in security. Gaining project licences may become more difficult if communities associate mining with destructive, unregulated operations. Environmental activism may contribute to the spread of illicit mining as permits for large-scale projects face mounting legal challenges. Security funding could come under further strain should the Trump administration curtail US financial support to Colombia.

Bangladesh militancy risk is small-scale and isolated

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Islamist Terrorism ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamist terrorism in Bangladesh. Significance An Italian aid worker was killed on September 27 in Dhaka, and a Japanese development worker was killed on October 2 in northern Bangladesh. The Islamic State group (ISG) claimed responsibility for both killings, although the government is sceptical of ISG involvement. These are the first attacks on foreign targets in Bangladesh since 2004, but follow a succession of strikes against secular bloggers. Impacts The greatest risk of violence lies in tensions within and between parliamentary parties. India-Bangladesh counterterrorism cooperation will intensify. UK and US security is more at risk from home-grown jihadis than immigrants.

'Zombie' firms will drag down economic growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Heavy Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financially Distressed ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Enterprises ◽  
Foreign Competitors

Subject China's efforts to shut down poorly performing state enterprises. Significance China's 'zombie' companies are heavily indebted state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that cannot survive without state financial support. They are believed to be numerous, and to be multiplying as the economy slows. Policies to tackle such firms were announced in December 2015 and several financially distressed SOEs shut down, but since March 2016 the process has lost momentum. Impacts Efforts to shut down zombie companies will hit heavy industry hardest. The number of layoffs in coal and steel will probably exceed the 5-6 million the government expects. Successful SOEs may be at risk of having workforces laid off by other state firms foisted upon them. Continued support for SOEs will maintain their advantage over private domestic and foreign competitors.

News wars will not deter Philippines’s Duterte

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
Foreign Ownership ◽  
International Community ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
The Eu

Significance The SEC in January ordered Rappler to shut down for breaking foreign ownership laws, which Rappler denies. Critics suggest the move was a politically motivated attempt by President Rodrigo Duterte’s government to clamp down on news outlets critical of the government, which Duterte and his administration deny. Impacts The international community, for instance the EU, could decide to halt or cancel trade preferences. Improved Philippine internal security could enhance journalists’ safety, but money shortages will bedevil this effort. Any self-censorship by journalists could undermine public trust in the media and scrutiny of the government. Large Philippine television networks use PDRs and could be at risk if Rappler loses its court appeal.

China’s push for growth will put safety second

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Coal Mines ◽  
White Collar ◽  
Chemical Plants ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Urban Services ◽  
Workplace Accidents ◽  
International Image ◽  
The Government

Subject Workplace accidents in China. Significance Major and well-publicised accidents in workplaces such as coal mines and chemical plants have damaged China’s international image and fed popular anger within the country about official incompetence and a culture of ‘bloodstained GDP’ that tolerates businesspeople putting ‘money before morality’. However, the number of workplace deaths fell by 8.6% last year to 34,600, according to official figures out this month, while the number of accidents fell by 6.5% to 49,000. The figures have declined continually each year for well over a decade. Impacts A shift in employment from industry to urban services will mean more deaths from smaller, less dramatic accidents. The government is determined to eliminate major accidents that make headlines, but largely ignores smaller ones. Low-paid workers face additional hazards on journeys to and from work, and in dangerously cramped, poorly built housing. White-collar professionals too are increasingly at risk of illness and even death from overwork.

Belarus unrest puts IT sector at risk

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
It Outsourcing ◽  
Civic Action ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Operational Risks ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Baltic

Significance The IT sector has been an unmitigated success in recent years and formerly coexisted with the government, but internet shutdowns raised operational risks, and the industry's staff have become progressively involved in civic action. Impacts IT outsourcing is an important source of foreign currency revenues, which may now decline. Neighbouring Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states are set to benefit if IT companies move out of Belarus. The Belarusian service sector would suffer from a mass exodus of skilled and well-paid IT workers.

Vaccine delays will hold back Thai tourism revival

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Aid ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Visitor Numbers ◽  
Roll Out

Significance In 2019, travel and tourism contributed nearly 20% of GDP, directly and indirectly, but visitor numbers in 2020 fell by more than 80%. The authorities are trying to control a fresh coronavirus outbreak while finalising arrangements for a vaccine roll-out, which was meant to start on February 14 but has been delayed. Impacts The government will continue to extend financial aid to ease the debt burden of small businesses and households. Officials may prioritise vaccination of tourism workers to prepare the industry to receive foreign visitors. Thailand will likely procure more COVID-19 vaccines from China, India and Russia.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document