China’s push for growth will put safety second

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Coal Mines ◽  
White Collar ◽  
Chemical Plants ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Urban Services ◽  
Workplace Accidents ◽  
International Image ◽  
The Government

Subject Workplace accidents in China. Significance Major and well-publicised accidents in workplaces such as coal mines and chemical plants have damaged China’s international image and fed popular anger within the country about official incompetence and a culture of ‘bloodstained GDP’ that tolerates businesspeople putting ‘money before morality’. However, the number of workplace deaths fell by 8.6% last year to 34,600, according to official figures out this month, while the number of accidents fell by 6.5% to 49,000. The figures have declined continually each year for well over a decade. Impacts A shift in employment from industry to urban services will mean more deaths from smaller, less dramatic accidents. The government is determined to eliminate major accidents that make headlines, but largely ignores smaller ones. Low-paid workers face additional hazards on journeys to and from work, and in dangerously cramped, poorly built housing. White-collar professionals too are increasingly at risk of illness and even death from overwork.

Sonko protests will embolden Senegal’s opposition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Targeted Attacks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Public Disorder ◽  
Unemployed Youth ◽  
Roll Out

Significance He had been arrested for disrupting public disorder and attending an illegal demonstration after protests erupted as he responded to a court summons concerning rape allegations. His arrest and detention has triggered wider unrest and a public backlash against President Macky Sall and his government. Impacts Sall will increase budgetary spending to try to appease the growing numbers of unemployed youth. Deep public mistrust of the government could hamper COVID-19 vaccine roll-out. With anti-French sentiment increasing, French businesses will be at risk of further targeted attacks during protests.

Kazakhstan will silence dissenting voices amid crisis

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Freedom Of Expression ◽  
International Human Rights ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lower House ◽  
International Image ◽  
International Human ◽  
The Government

Subject Prosecutions for questioning Kazakhstan's statehood. Significance Two civil society activists in Kazakhstan, Yermek Narymbayev and Serikjan Mambetalin, were jailed on January 22 after being found guilty of 'inciting ethnic discord' for comments they posted on Facebook. The verdict, condemned by domestic and international human rights groups, came shortly before the authorities announced that elections to the lower house of parliament originally scheduled for January 2017 had been brought forward to March 20. Impacts Nazarbayev's Nur Otan party will win a majority in the March polls and other parties that gain seats will have tacit government approval. Crackdowns on freedom of expression will tarnish efforts to maintain good relations with the West. The government will continue to fund costly lobbying campaigns to improve its international image.

Ukraine coal shortages risk winter crisis

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Coal Mines ◽  
Heating Power ◽  
Coal Extraction ◽  
Energy Problem ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Stations ◽  
The Government

Subject Kyiv's next energy problem. Significance Although Ukraine and Russia have agreed a new so-called 'winter package' gas deal until March 2016, Kyiv faces another energy problem. With so many of Ukraine's coal mines lying in war-ravaged Donbas, the nation's coal extraction has fallen significantly and the government is facing shortages. Impacts If Ukraine's heating power stations enter winter with inadequate reserves of coal, this will create a season of power cuts. Unprecedented energy economising may accelerate, which could lead to increased public discontent. The coal industry's inefficiency will keep the issue of privatisation on the government's agenda, but economic woes will hinder this.

Peace deals will not reduce illegal mining in Colombia

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Gold Mining ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Illegal Mining ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Illegal mining. Significance The army this month announced the capture of two suspected members of the Clan del Golfo crime group (otherwise known as the Urabenos) in Buritica, Antioquia. The group is thought to be attempting to revive illegal mining in the area, which the government has targeted as part of a recent drive to tackle the crime. Despite increased security efforts nationwide, and the demobilisation of rebels from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), however, little immediate improvement is anticipated. Impacts Gold mining firms are particularly at risk of illegal miners and will invest heavily in security. Gaining project licences may become more difficult if communities associate mining with destructive, unregulated operations. Environmental activism may contribute to the spread of illicit mining as permits for large-scale projects face mounting legal challenges. Security funding could come under further strain should the Trump administration curtail US financial support to Colombia.

Bangladesh militancy risk is small-scale and isolated

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Islamist Terrorism ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamist terrorism in Bangladesh. Significance An Italian aid worker was killed on September 27 in Dhaka, and a Japanese development worker was killed on October 2 in northern Bangladesh. The Islamic State group (ISG) claimed responsibility for both killings, although the government is sceptical of ISG involvement. These are the first attacks on foreign targets in Bangladesh since 2004, but follow a succession of strikes against secular bloggers. Impacts The greatest risk of violence lies in tensions within and between parliamentary parties. India-Bangladesh counterterrorism cooperation will intensify. UK and US security is more at risk from home-grown jihadis than immigrants.

'Zombie' firms will drag down economic growth

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Heavy Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financially Distressed ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Enterprises ◽  
Foreign Competitors

Subject China's efforts to shut down poorly performing state enterprises. Significance China's 'zombie' companies are heavily indebted state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that cannot survive without state financial support. They are believed to be numerous, and to be multiplying as the economy slows. Policies to tackle such firms were announced in December 2015 and several financially distressed SOEs shut down, but since March 2016 the process has lost momentum. Impacts Efforts to shut down zombie companies will hit heavy industry hardest. The number of layoffs in coal and steel will probably exceed the 5-6 million the government expects. Successful SOEs may be at risk of having workforces laid off by other state firms foisted upon them. Continued support for SOEs will maintain their advantage over private domestic and foreign competitors.

News wars will not deter Philippines’s Duterte

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
Foreign Ownership ◽  
International Community ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade Preferences ◽  
The Eu

Significance The SEC in January ordered Rappler to shut down for breaking foreign ownership laws, which Rappler denies. Critics suggest the move was a politically motivated attempt by President Rodrigo Duterte’s government to clamp down on news outlets critical of the government, which Duterte and his administration deny. Impacts The international community, for instance the EU, could decide to halt or cancel trade preferences. Improved Philippine internal security could enhance journalists’ safety, but money shortages will bedevil this effort. Any self-censorship by journalists could undermine public trust in the media and scrutiny of the government. Large Philippine television networks use PDRs and could be at risk if Rappler loses its court appeal.

Belarus unrest puts IT sector at risk

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
It Outsourcing ◽  
Civic Action ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Operational Risks ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Baltic

Significance The IT sector has been an unmitigated success in recent years and formerly coexisted with the government, but internet shutdowns raised operational risks, and the industry's staff have become progressively involved in civic action. Impacts IT outsourcing is an important source of foreign currency revenues, which may now decline. Neighbouring Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states are set to benefit if IT companies move out of Belarus. The Belarusian service sector would suffer from a mass exodus of skilled and well-paid IT workers.

Oil trade that spurs Belarus recovery is at risk

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Refining Industry ◽  
Oil Refining ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Market Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government

Subject Belarus's state-run economy. Significance Belarus showed healthy GDP growth in the first half of the year, but much of it is due to increased profitability in the oil refining industry thanks to higher global prices. Other sectors, particularly the important engineering sector, have also recovered strongly. Growth in these state-run industries relieves the government of pressure to implement market reforms, leaving fundamental problems to be addressed some time in the future. Impacts Belarus's economic reliance on Russia will dictate its ultimate political allegiance despite pro-EU impulses. Given it has the upper hand, Moscow may see no urgent need to compensate for the damage done by its domestic tax change. Bilateral frictions will play out in the ongoing dispute over how much Belarusian food sold to Russia is really from elsewhere.

Interest rates will continue to rise in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Similar Rate ◽  
Income Transfer ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government

Significance The increase, the largest since 2002, comes despite low growth expectations and reflects concerns over rising inflation, with the Central Bank warning of a similar rate rise in December. Investors are concerned by governmental proposals to breach the public spending cap to pay for a new income transfer programme, Auxilio Brasil (Brazil Relief). Impacts Rising prices will fuel popular dissatisfaction with the government. Higher interest rates will affect both growth and debt prospects. The need to finance pre-election social assistance programmes will put investor sentiment at risk

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