Vaccine delays will hold back Thai tourism revival

Significance In 2019, travel and tourism contributed nearly 20% of GDP, directly and indirectly, but visitor numbers in 2020 fell by more than 80%. The authorities are trying to control a fresh coronavirus outbreak while finalising arrangements for a vaccine roll-out, which was meant to start on February 14 but has been delayed. Impacts The government will continue to extend financial aid to ease the debt burden of small businesses and households. Officials may prioritise vaccination of tourism workers to prepare the industry to receive foreign visitors. Thailand will likely procure more COVID-19 vaccines from China, India and Russia.

Significance In addition, the government approved the nation’s first COVID-19 vaccine. Both announcements sent the Tokyo Stock Exchange indices to thirty-year highs. However, deflation remains a problem and wages are stagnant. Impacts Fiscal spending will support small businesses and employees. Full recovery will depend on the rate of vaccine roll-out, which is still in the planning stage. Demand for urban services dependent on office workers will remain weak. Demand for office property is likely to recover, but not to former levels.


Significance He had been arrested for disrupting public disorder and attending an illegal demonstration after protests erupted as he responded to a court summons concerning rape allegations. His arrest and detention has triggered wider unrest and a public backlash against President Macky Sall and his government. Impacts Sall will increase budgetary spending to try to appease the growing numbers of unemployed youth. Deep public mistrust of the government could hamper COVID-19 vaccine roll-out. With anti-French sentiment increasing, French businesses will be at risk of further targeted attacks during protests.


Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.


Significance Former Crown Prince Hamzah was placed under house arrest on April 3, as 20 other people were detained. His release of audio and video material that undermined the official position embarrassed the government, and the recent public reconciliation leaves his status unclear. Impacts Despite the aspersions cast on Riyadh, Gulf states will send further financial aid to boost stability and compete for influence. Another government reshuffle and further changes within the security services are likely. Relations between Abdullah and Hamzah will remain troubled, as the latter seeks to remain relevant in case an opportunity presents itself.


Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Schmidt ◽  
Alex Altshuler

Purpose This paper aims to discuss how the tourism industry is contending with the economic and interorganizational challenges wrought by the COVID-19 outbreak and heightened by a lack of communication between the government and local businesses in the state of Israel. The researchers examine the dependency of the tourism industry on the general preparation programs that were developed and are currently being deployed by the relevant national stakeholders and question whether instead, it should use the pandemic as a catalyst for formulating its own nuanced tourism-travel-and-hospitality-oriented strategies and procedures. Design/methodology/approach Applying an ethnographic-based mix-methods research approach, this paper draws on insights from data compiled by fusing existing theoretical and emerging practical knowledge with empirical research (qualitative and quantitative) conducted among numerous relevant macro (governmental/centralized industry) and micro (hotels, travel and tourism operators and service providers) stakeholders as well as potential consumers. Findings It is essential that national and local government bodies form collaborative interorganizational relationships with local stakeholders to jointly activate case-specific hospitality and travel-specific risk mitigation management strategies. Moreover, the pandemic laid bare the tentative and fragile nature of the globalized tourism industry supply and demand chains, a condition that may be remedied via a pivot toward using national or even regional supply chains and goods and service providers. Within Israel, such changes could lead to increased economic benefits that extend beyond the tourism industry to provide certain security-related benefits. Originality/value Relating to idiosyncratic factors relevant to an Israeli cultural context, this paper uses the ethnographic field-borne familiarity of the researchers with the tourism and travel industries in Eilat and the Dead Sea to offer applicable suggestions for leveraging certain industry resources to both meet the demands of the present-day circumstances and cultivate a multifaceted organizational web of macro and micro social, economic and environmental networks so as to foster a more diversified and therefore resilient local tourism and travel economy.


Subject Entrepreneurship in China. Significance The government is pinning its hopes on entrepreneurship to foster a new economic growth model and develop the poorer, rural areas of the country. Recent policies take a two-pronged approach, targeting urban graduates and rural migrants separately. Impacts Policies targeting high-tech innovative start-ups have high potential to boost the quality and quantity of economic growth. Entrepreneurship-promotion policies aimed at start-ups and small businesses will mostly benefit already established enterprises. The supply of credit available to entrepreneurs will fail to meet their huge and growing demand for financing.


Significance The review will take into account the effects of measures taken thus far, in particular the flotation of the Egyptian pound, and will assess the government’s budget for the 2017-18 (July-June) fiscal year. Impacts The government will struggle to reduce the deficit because of the scale of public debt and the record high domestic interest rate. Government expenditure on wages will rise at a much lower rate than inflation. The public will also face further rises in indirect taxation, revenue from which is projected to rise by 40%. The IMF is unlikely to raise any serious objections to the government’s plans.


Subject Nigerian banking sector. Significance Some of Nigeria’s largest banks made significant profits in 2017 despite the country’s recession, benefitting mainly from high-yielding Nigerian Treasury Bills. This is unlikely to be repeated this year, with yields falling as the government replaces expensive domestic debt with cheaper Eurobonds, and banks attempt to shore up their balance sheets. Higher oil prices will help this process, yet many smaller banks are struggling to replicate their larger rivals' success. Impacts A restructuring of telecommunications company 9Mobile’s loan would benefit banks' non-performing loan numbers. Any uptick in Niger Delta insecurity could negatively impact banks, as most have significant loans with the upstream oil and gas sector. The CBN may issue more loans via commercial banks to small businesses and farmers in the run-up to next year's national elections.


Significance It reports less than 100 cases and one death, but official figures probably underestimate the reality. PNG’s health system was already in serious decline before the pandemic and the government acknowledges a high probability that community transmission continues. Impacts What may slow infections is the fact that much of PNG’s population lives in rural and remote areas. The roll-out of internet access to provincial cities and rural areas will help integrate PNG’s fragmented economy and society. Despite the Bougainville region voting strongly for independence in a non-binding referendum last year, actual independence is years away.


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