Taliban's war outpaces efforts for Afghan settlement

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Damage Limitation ◽  
Government Security

Significance He may ask Ghani to step aside and make way for an interim government, in the hope that this will halt the apparent slide into chaos. The Taliban are capturing territory rapidly across Afghanistan and panic is spreading among government security forces. The Taliban are complying with a promise not to attack provincial capitals but have surrounded several and are just waiting for US and other NATO-led forces to leave Afghanistan. Impacts Pakistan, Iran and perhaps Russia and Saudi Arabia are lobbying for their proteges to be included or spared under Taliban rule. The international focus will switch to damage limitation and securing Taliban cooperation on counter-terrorism and minimal human rights. The pace of the Taliban’s advance is so stunning that Islamabad is wondering how it can curb or control them.

Jihadi groups will compete for support in the Maghreb

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
International Action ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
State Group

Significance Instability in Libya has exacerbated an already fraught security environment in the Maghreb and the Sahel. Several militant groups co-exist in these parts, usually in competition with each other. The Islamic State group (ISG) has taken centre stage, but despite high profile attacks in Libya, it has failed to establish a foothold in other Maghreb countries. Impacts ISG encroachment in Libya will strengthen calls for international action to address Libya's crisis. Sporadic attacks are expected against security forces and government targets in Tunisia and Algeria. Government pressure and expanded counterterrorism operations could cause more widespread abuses of human rights. Fighters returning from jihad in Syria and Iraq could bolster the capabilities of local jihadist cells.

Sri Lanka in 2008: Waging War for Peace

Asian Survey ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nira Wickramasinghe
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Eastern Province ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The North ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Government ◽  
Military Campaign ◽  
Government Security

The year 2008 saw a successful military campaign by government security forces against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the North. Elections to the Eastern Province resulted in a break away faction of the LTTE sharing power with the government. People continued to endure high inflation in the price of essential goods and services, and the country's human rights record remained dismal.

Ethiopian protest risk rises as emergency declared

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Risk Tolerance ◽  
The State ◽  
Internet Usage ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type

Significance The declaration came a week after reports emerged that protestors were attacking foreign businesses in the country as well as government property. Under the state of emergency, security forces will have expanded powers to search homes without warrants, detain individuals and restrict rights of assembly. Impacts Most foreign investment comes from firms based in other developing economies that have a high (but not unlimited) risk tolerance. Ethiopian claims of Egyptian and Eritrean links to violent protesters are tenuous and are meant to shift causality to external issues. Donors have limited traction and will push only for an outcome that yields stability rather than improvements in human rights. Further restrictions on communication (especially internet usage) are likely.

Regime will seek to hold Syria's core economic assets

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Political Fragmentation ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Institutions ◽  
Key Sectors ◽  
Total Geographical Area ◽  
Economic Assets

Subject Syrian economic fragmentation. Significance The Syrian government continues to operate on the basis that it is a national administration, despite the fact that its security forces control less than half of the country's total geographical area. President Bashar al-Assad alluded to this in a recent speech, in which he explained that the army had to prioritise in allocating its resources. This raises the question as to whether there is a meaningful Syrian economy, or whether political fragmentation has resulted in economic break-up. Impacts The regime economy's survival will depend upon key sectors such as agriculture and energy, and external aid, particularly from Iran. Iran and Saudi Arabia could agree on the need to preserve the integrity of government institutions, despite disagreement over Assad's fate. Islamic State group's economic position will become increasingly precarious if it fails to reverse recent losses to the Kurds.

Cambodian rapprochement to continue uneasily, for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Deputy Prime Minister ◽  
Official Corruption

Subject Cambodia's 'culture of dialogue'. Significance Interior minister and deputy prime minister Sar Kheng, of the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP), will meet opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) co-leader Sam Rainsy on October 1 after a similar September 23 meeting. Publicly, such meetings, notionally to discuss forthcoming legislation, characterise the 'culture of dialogue' between the CPP and CNRP. However, the July imprisonment of opposition-linked activists, passage of a controversial civil society law and the August arrest of an opposition senator, raise concerns about the robustness of the rapprochement. Impacts The opposition will focus on sensitive popular issues to gain support, including official corruption and judiciary politicisation. The CPP will use the security forces and judicial apparatus to constrain its opponents. Limitations to civil society freedoms could stoke local unrest over land and human rights.

Islands deal may end Egyptian judges' independence

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Relative Autonomy ◽  
State Security ◽  
Legal Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
Religious Establishment

Significance The approval of the deal aligns parliament with the government against the judiciary. After a series of legal challenges, the Supreme Administrative Court ruled in January that the agreement was void. The case has been referred to the Supreme Constitutional Court, which has not yet ruled on the issue. The islands’ transfer has exposed a rift between Sisi and senior judges and threatens the latter's autonomy. Impacts State security forces will be prepared to deal with any protests against the islands deal. There may be small, isolated demonstrations, which police will almost certainly crush before they develop momentum. Implementation of the deal will consolidate Sisi’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. Sisi is also showing some frustration with the religious establishment, which has so far maintained its relative autonomy.

Saudi security forces will control Shia protests

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type

Headline SAUDI ARABIA: Security forces can control Shia protest

Burkina Faso reforms are unlikely to stem violence

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Social Relations ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Border Regions ◽  
Community Protests ◽  
Artisanal Miners

Significance Following a relative slackening of activity, 480 civilians were killed between May and August alone, bringing the total number of Burkinabe deaths since the first attacks in 2015 to more than 1,500. Insecurity seems to be disturbing wider social relations as well, with frequent community protests, deadly vigilante actions and clashes between artisanal miners and mine security forces. Impacts The army’s questionable human rights record may hinder efforts to improve relations with local communities. Organised labour may seek to capitalise on government failures to press its own demands. Failure to reduce armed conflict in the border regions may encourage more violence in the country’s centre as well.

Cairo aims for greater regional clout

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Procurement

Significance The advent of a new US administration has presented Egypt with an opportunity to reaffirm its regional strategic importance, but also created new risks. Impacts The United States will remain an important factor in Egyptian foreign policy and military procurement, but it is no longer central. An accommodation between Egypt and Turkey may be feasible, and Saudi Arabia could support it, but the UAE might oppose it. Sisi will ignore Western criticisms of Egypt’s human rights record, calculating that the risk of any effective sanctions is low.

New military rule is entrenching itself in Chad

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Military Rule ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Chad ◽  
Chad Basin ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Lake Chad Basin

Significance Although Deby and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed Chad’s political transition from military to civilian rule, the meeting’s emphasis was on security issues in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin, in Libya, and within Chad itself. Impacts Deby is investing substantial energy in foreign relations, not just with France but also with neighbouring states. If Deby and the CMT ultimately decide to prolong the transition, foreign objections will likely be fairly minimal and brief. Despite outcry from human rights groups over the security forces’ treatment of protesters in April and May, accountability is unlikely.

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