Tehran may further restrict foreign social media

Significance This comes as conservative-drafted legislation aims to increase use of local alternatives to facilitate new restrictions on foreign social media providers. The recent presidential election highlighted their use by reformists, particularly Clubhouse, which hosted unusually open discussions. Impacts New restrictions on social media are likely to have a negative economic impact on many businesses. Open policy discussions may continue on Clubhouse and other apps but could become increasingly dominated by the diaspora. The July 21 removal of Clubhouse’s invitation-only system could potentially undermine its distinctive appeal to nervous dissidents.

Significance The legislative poll will occur alongside the presidential one on April 17, 2019, and parties have been forced to commit already to a presidential candidate. Impacts President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo is likely to retain power next year. Both Jokowi and Prabowo Subianto will appeal to economic nationalism in campaigning for the presidency. Social media will feature heavily in both the legislative and the presidential election campaigns.


Significance With the 2020 US presidential election looming, there is more attention to the threat of foreign interference. In the 2016 presidential election, Russia carried out a broad information campaign consisting of fake social media accounts and targeted adverts spreading divisive political content to polarise the electorate. Impacts Trust in the results of elections worldwide will continue to decrease. Voters will doubt the veracity of the information they receive even in the absence of interference. The black market for social media manipulation tools will grow.


Significance The bill will move to the Senate, where Republicans fear it over-reaches into states’ powers to manage elections. The standoff takes place within the context of the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, in which Russians interfered via informational techniques and social media. The bill is designed to prevent another such occurrence, but the ability for actors to manipulate election results is more far-reaching than the methods addressed in this bill. Impacts The bill would authorise federal money annually to improve and maintain states’ election systems. Social media firms will face more government and public pressure to prevent foreign election interference via their platforms. Social media firms will find it difficult to police their platforms without increasing editorial control.


Subject Singapore politics update. Significance Singapore’s minister for home affairs and for law, Kasiviswanathan Shanmugam, took to social media on October 8 to rebut criticisms made by opposition figure and 2011 presidential candidate Tan Cheng Bock. The spat relates to the government’s decision to limit the latest presidential election to ethnic Malay candidates only. The decision has been viewed by government critics as a means of barring Tan from running next time. Impacts The recent political turbulence in Singapore will not affect the country’s economy. Criticisms of the presidential election will not affect daily policymaking: the presidency is largely symbolic. Lee will visit US President Donald Trump on October 23, which will move Singapore’s political narrative on from domestic spats. Questions about succession planning in the governing party are likely to loom increasingly large in coming years.


Subject Political hurdles to 'big tech' expansion plans. Significance The 2020 presidential election is pushing discussions of social media disinformation, ‘big tech’ monopoly and the high cost of housing in several cities, often seen to be worsened by technology workers. These issues are hurting the image of large technology firms, and will affect their expansion plans. Impacts The 2020 elections will intensify political scrutiny of big tech’s control over news distribution. Organised labour may be able to leverage tech expansions into unionisation of property services and other support staff. Growing tech clusters in small western states could enable Democratic candidates to compete in statewide races.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhijeet R. Shirsat ◽  
Angel F. González ◽  
Judith J. May

Purpose This study aims to understand the allure and danger of fake news in social media environments and propose a theoretical model of the phenomenon. Design/methodology/approach This qualitative research study used the uses and gratifications theory (UGT) approach to analyze how and why people used social media during the 2016 US presidential election. Findings The thematic analysis revealed people were gratified after using social media to connect with friends and family and to gather and share information and after using it as a vehicle of expression. Participants found a significant number of fake news stories on social media during the 2016 US presidential election. Participants tried to differentiate between fake news and real news using fact-checking websites and news sources and interacted with the social media users who posted fake news and became part of the echo chamber. Behaviors like these emerged in the analysis that could not be completely explained by UGT and required further exploration which resulted in a model that became the core of this study. Research limitations/implications This is a small-scale exploratory study with eight diverse participants, findings should not be generalized to larger populations. Time-specific self-reporting of information from social media and fake news during the 2016 US presidential election. Upgrading public policies related to social media is recommended in the study, contributing to burgeoning policy discussions and provides recommendations for both purveyors of social media and public policymakers. Practical implications Upgrade in public policies related to social media is recommended in the study and contributes to burgeoning policy discussions and provides recommendations for both purveyors of social media and public policymakers. Social implications Social media users are spending increased time on their preferred platforms. This study increases the understanding of the nature, function and transformation of virtual social media environments and their effects on real individuals, cultures and societies.What is original/of value about the paper?This exploratory study establishes the foundation on which to expand research in the area of social media use and fake news. Originality/value This exploratory study establishes the foundation to expand research in the area of social media use and fake news.


Subject The implications of judicial politicisation in South-east Asia. Significance A Malaysian court on February 10 upheld Pakatan Rakyat opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim's sodomy conviction. This has widely been interpreted as being politically motivated, although Malaysia's government has denied this. Such cases ignite public calls across South-east Asia for the independence of judiciaries, which have become deeply involved in national politics. Impacts Lese majeste and corruption cases will increase as the Thai junta suppresses former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's allies. Aquino could pursue constitutional changes to limit the judiciary's power. Elite polarisation after 2014's presidential election will test the Indonesian Constitutional Court's independence. Increasingly, social media will be used for political dissent, which governments will resist.


Subject The rise of far-right support. Significance The far right is a relative newcomer to Brazilian mainstream politics but is becoming a rising force in polls, street protests and social media. Since 2014, as corruption allegations enveloped the country’s then-governing Workers’ Party (PT), small street marches have called for the reinstatement of the military regime that ruled between 1964 and 1985 and ultra-conservative lawmaker Jair Bolsonaro has risen from being an obscure figure to a contender for the 2018 presidential election. Impacts Bolsonaro’s evangelical support may reduce the same groups' backing of environmentalist Marina Silva. Large parties will make uneasy alliances with ultra-conservative factions, leading to rising activism by left-wing movements. Socially conservative parties may succeed in leveraging their political clout to push for policies against abortion and LGBT rights.


Subject Western responses to political meddling with cyber tools. Significance Data hacks and cyber ‘kompromat’ operations can influence domestic politics in democracies with a free press, as evidenced in the 2016 US presidential election. Consequently, governments, politicians and the media are recalibrating their responses. Impacts Most European countries will strongly penalise social media for GDPR violations. US regulators will remain less hostile to the interests of ‘big tech’. Russian actors will constantly adapt their new campaigns to Western defences.


Subject Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny's election bid. Significance Opposition figure and anti-corruption campaigner Alexey Navalny announced in mid-December that he would stand in the 2018 presidential election. He is using social media to promote a programme of left-of-centre policies that seek to address popular grievances. Impacts If Navalny makes it to election day, the inclusion of at least one other opposition figure, Grigory Yavlinsky, would draw off votes. Modest economic recovery would favour Putin, assuming that average incomes start rising perceptibly. Pension and other changes lobbied for by reformers will be postponed until after the election to avoid public resentment.


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