India’s ‘bad’ bank brings risks and opportunities

Significance This ‘bad’ bank, an asset reconstruction company, will work in tandem with a debt resolution firm. It will be partially backed by government guarantees. Impacts Resolution professionals, seen as possessing special skills, will play a key role in the workings of the new debt resolution firm. India will rely less on its 2016 Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code to tackle non-performing loans. The government will count on PSB mergers to moderate competition and reap economies of scale in the banking sector.

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 335-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafik Harkati ◽  
Syed Musa Alhabshi ◽  
Salina Kassim

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of economic freedom and six relevant subcomponents of it on the risk-taking behavior of banks in the Malaysian dual banking system. It also aims to make a comparative analysis between Islamic and conventional banks operating in this dual banking sector. Moreover, the study is an effort to enrich the existing literature by presenting empirical evidence on the argument that the risk-taking behavior of the two types of banks is indistinguishable given that they operate in the same regulatory environment. Design/methodology/approach Secondary data of all banks operating in the Malaysian banking sector are collected from FitchConnect database, in addition to the economic freedom index from Foundation Heritage for the period 2011–2017. Generalized least squares technique is employed to estimate the influence of economic freedom and the six relevant subcomponents of it on the risk-taking behavior of banks. Findings The level of economic freedom influenced risk-taking behavior within the banking sector as a whole, conventional and Islamic banking sectors negatively during the study period (2011–2017). Risk-taking behavior of conventional and Islamic banks is similar. However, conventional banks turn to be less influenced by economic freedom level as compared to Islamic banks. Practical implications The government and regulators may benefit from the results by rethinking and setting the best economic freedom index that better serves the stability of the banking system, and lessens banks’ risk-taking inclination. Originality/value To the present time, this paper is thought to be of a significant contribution. Given the argument that Islamic and conventional banks behave in the same way. This is one of the first attempts to address this issue in light of the influence of economic freedom and six subcomponents of it on the risk-taking behavior of banks operating in a dual banking system.


Subject Prospects for the banking sector. Significance The government is buying a 30% stake in the Austrian lender Erste Bank under a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The MoU signifies a volte-face by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose relationship with foreign-owned banks has been fraught with difficulties since the imposition of a levy on financial institutions in 2010 that drove down earnings and achieved notoriety as one of the highest taxes of its kind in Europe. The government has pledged to reduce the bank tax during 2016-19. Impacts The MoU may not redefine government relations with foreign banks, but could mean more activity on the market by institutional investors. Banks will clean up balance sheets, adopting a 'wait and see' strategy until FX debt relief peters out and the bank tax starts to fall. A return to profitability is unlikely before 2016; much depends on an uptake in corporate and household loans denominated in local currency.


Significance This reflects the significant risks lying ahead for the government despite the European Council's decision on August 9 to waive fines for Portugal over its excessive budget deficit in 2015. Impacts The European Commission retains the possibility of suspending structural funds for Portugal. The decision to waive the fine could undermine the credibility of EU rules in the long term. Slower economic growth and the weak banking sector could lead to Portugal being downgraded by rating agencies.


Subject Implementation of India's new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. Significance Shrinking bank credit is hindering India’s ability to finance spending. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is relying on the recently instituted Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) as the principal instrument to address the problem of stressed assets in the banking system. Impacts The government may accelerate plans to merge stronger and weaker PSBs. Indian corporates may increase their issue of bonds denominated in domestic currency. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will emphasise job creation rather than investment until the next election.


Subject Nigerian banking sector. Significance Some of Nigeria’s largest banks made significant profits in 2017 despite the country’s recession, benefitting mainly from high-yielding Nigerian Treasury Bills. This is unlikely to be repeated this year, with yields falling as the government replaces expensive domestic debt with cheaper Eurobonds, and banks attempt to shore up their balance sheets. Higher oil prices will help this process, yet many smaller banks are struggling to replicate their larger rivals' success. Impacts A restructuring of telecommunications company 9Mobile’s loan would benefit banks' non-performing loan numbers. Any uptick in Niger Delta insecurity could negatively impact banks, as most have significant loans with the upstream oil and gas sector. The CBN may issue more loans via commercial banks to small businesses and farmers in the run-up to next year's national elections.


Subject Oil and COVID-19 shocks in Azerbaijan. Significance The COVID-19 pandemic and oil price collapse present a dual challenge to the government, whose economic or political responses are likely to mirror its behaviour in past crises. Despite reasonable fiscal strength, there are policy risks in areas such as defending the national currency at the cost of depleting foreign currency reserves. Impacts Demands for healthcare and welfare spending will rise, as will unemployment. The banking sector looks vulnerable: four major banks are already in temporary administration. The size of the shadow economy makes it difficult to assess numbers of lay-offs and the resulting demand for welfare assistance.


Subject Tajikistan's troubled banking sector. Significance Tajikistan's banking system has been in crisis since 2015, as problems in Russia feed through to this remittance-dependent economy. A decline in funds sent home by labour migrants has shrunk bank deposits, and the proportion of non-performing loans has risen sharply. The cash crisis is exacerbated by poor management and cronyism in financial institutions. The main banks, Tojiksodirotbank and Agroinvestbank, have restricted customer withdrawals. Impacts International financial institutions will condition assistance on reforms. However, the government will balk at any reform measures liable to hurt the rich and powerful. The government may seek Chinese support for the banking sector.


Subject Signs of resilience in the Greek economy. Significance The Greek government's protracted negotiations with its international lenders led to very high levels of economic uncertainty, which peaked in July 2015, with the introduction of capital controls. Since then, the progress made by the government towards implementing its agreement with the international lenders has largely removed fears that Greece might have to leave the euro-area, but capital controls and restricted liquidity in the banking sector continue to hamper economic activity. After slowly expanding through 2014 and the first half of 2015, the Greek economy slumped back into recession in the third quarter. Impacts Reforms of the social security system required by the lenders are likely to prove the most politically contentious. A decreased contribution to GDP by the construction and service sectors will alter the composition of the Greek economy in the long run. The structural nature of unemployment will require an urgent reassessment of the labour force's training and educational needs.


Significance Low global oil prices are weighing heavily on the profitability of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sector. Moody's Investors Service in March downgraded 26 GCC banks. This raises questions about the future of retail banking in the region. Impacts GCC governments' commitment to developing financial hubs will support retail banking. However, lack of economic integration in the region will prevent regional Gulf banks from benefitting from economies of scale. Fragmentation in the retail market means that each country will be dominated increasingly by their largest banks.


Subject Australia's royal commission hearings into banking. Significance A royal commission conducting hearings into Australia’s banking sector has heard evidence suggesting wrongdoing by banks including money laundering, defrauding of consumers and the rigging of a business interest rate. The commission may issue an interim report by September and its final one, if not delayed by additional taking of evidence, is due by February 2019. Impacts Misconduct revelations will tarnish the banking industry’s image and could erode earnings growth for several years. Tighter lending criteria will shrink credit availability; housing mortgage markets will feel the most impact. Canberra’s hesitant response could hurt the government politically and may see the federal election brought forward in 2019.


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