Nigerian banks will struggle to repeat 2017 results

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Small Businesses ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Domestic Debt ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up

Subject Nigerian banking sector. Significance Some of Nigeria’s largest banks made significant profits in 2017 despite the country’s recession, benefitting mainly from high-yielding Nigerian Treasury Bills. This is unlikely to be repeated this year, with yields falling as the government replaces expensive domestic debt with cheaper Eurobonds, and banks attempt to shore up their balance sheets. Higher oil prices will help this process, yet many smaller banks are struggling to replicate their larger rivals' success. Impacts A restructuring of telecommunications company 9Mobile’s loan would benefit banks' non-performing loan numbers. Any uptick in Niger Delta insecurity could negatively impact banks, as most have significant loans with the upstream oil and gas sector. The CBN may issue more loans via commercial banks to small businesses and farmers in the run-up to next year's national elections.

Fast growth may avert foreign banks' exit from Hungary

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Government Relations ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for the banking sector. Significance The government is buying a 30% stake in the Austrian lender Erste Bank under a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The MoU signifies a volte-face by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose relationship with foreign-owned banks has been fraught with difficulties since the imposition of a levy on financial institutions in 2010 that drove down earnings and achieved notoriety as one of the highest taxes of its kind in Europe. The government has pledged to reduce the bank tax during 2016-19. Impacts The MoU may not redefine government relations with foreign banks, but could mean more activity on the market by institutional investors. Banks will clean up balance sheets, adopting a 'wait and see' strategy until FX debt relief peters out and the bank tax starts to fall. A return to profitability is unlikely before 2016; much depends on an uptake in corporate and household loans denominated in local currency.

Indonesia regulatory shifts could hit policy outlook

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Regulatory Environment ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Production Contracts ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government

Significance The signings come after the government revised a regulation issued earlier this year that in effect made renewable energy uncompetitive. This year, a series of regulation and policy reversals governing Indonesia’s energy and mining sectors have revealed an unstable regulatory environment, with a negative effect on foreign investment. Impacts Weak demand at oil and gas block auctions will put pressure on Jakarta to revise “gross split” production contracts further. Despite regulatory revisions for individual sectors, regulatory inconsistency will further dampen the investment climate. A cabinet reshuffle is likely soon. Regulatory controversies could dent Widodo’s policy credibility ahead of the 2018 regional and 2019 national elections.

Partial reforms may delay Kenyan credit recovery

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Small Businesses ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Credit Rationing ◽  
Credit Recovery ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Asset Quality

Significance The bill would also introduce sweeping consumer protection measures to prevent high-interest loans but takes no steps to repeal or modify interest rate caps imposed in 2016 as a populist measure to reduce lending costs. The CBK, IMF and World Bank have each warned of the negative impacts of rate caps, including a contraction in private sector lending, credit rationing for small businesses and a deterioration in banking sector asset quality. Impacts The banking sector has been resilient, but growing pressure on small banks could reignite the panic that sparked the 2016 banking crisis. Exempted institutions have also reduced rates and lending, limiting excluded borrowers to exorbitant informal lenders. Rising foreign reserves may dilute the IMF’s leverage to get the government fully to repeal the rate caps.

Zimbabwean bond notes policy staves off fiscal reforms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Fiscal Reforms ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government ◽  
Better Than

Significance GDP is still set to recover this year, accelerating to 3.7% (from 0.7% in 2016) according to government forecasts. This is driven by robust exports, which should boost legitimate dollar supply. The additional notes will apparently be underwritten once again by the African Export-Import Bank (Afrexim) -- although the lender is yet to provide confirmation. Impacts Better-than-budgeted revenue collection in 2017 will ease fiscal strains, but the government deficit will remain elevated at 6.3% of GDP. With gross reserves covering only two weeks of imports, the RBZ will likely lean more on exempt exporters for their dollar earnings. High capital adequacy masks risks to the banking sector from the heavily discounted treasury bills and electronic deposits.

Oil will drive record Guyana growth again in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Development ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.

scholarly journals Influence of economic freedom and its subcomponents on risk-taking behavior

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 335-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafik Harkati ◽  
Syed Musa Alhabshi ◽  
Salina Kassim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Freedom Index ◽  
Risk Taking Behavior ◽  
The Government ◽  
Conventional Banks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of economic freedom and six relevant subcomponents of it on the risk-taking behavior of banks in the Malaysian dual banking system. It also aims to make a comparative analysis between Islamic and conventional banks operating in this dual banking sector. Moreover, the study is an effort to enrich the existing literature by presenting empirical evidence on the argument that the risk-taking behavior of the two types of banks is indistinguishable given that they operate in the same regulatory environment. Design/methodology/approach Secondary data of all banks operating in the Malaysian banking sector are collected from FitchConnect database, in addition to the economic freedom index from Foundation Heritage for the period 2011–2017. Generalized least squares technique is employed to estimate the influence of economic freedom and the six relevant subcomponents of it on the risk-taking behavior of banks. Findings The level of economic freedom influenced risk-taking behavior within the banking sector as a whole, conventional and Islamic banking sectors negatively during the study period (2011–2017). Risk-taking behavior of conventional and Islamic banks is similar. However, conventional banks turn to be less influenced by economic freedom level as compared to Islamic banks. Practical implications The government and regulators may benefit from the results by rethinking and setting the best economic freedom index that better serves the stability of the banking system, and lessens banks’ risk-taking inclination. Originality/value To the present time, this paper is thought to be of a significant contribution. Given the argument that Islamic and conventional banks behave in the same way. This is one of the first attempts to address this issue in light of the influence of economic freedom and six subcomponents of it on the risk-taking behavior of banks operating in a dual banking system.

Holding banks to account for the financial crisis?

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-69
Author(s):  
Oonagh Anne McDonald
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Housing Policy ◽  
Careful Analysis ◽  
Careful Examination ◽  
Department Of Justice ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Federal Housing ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the ways in which the USA has sought to hold the leading banks to account for the financial crisis and to asses the validity of the methods used. This is the first of two articles which looks at the basis of the Complaints against the banks and the settlements which led to the imposition of large fines on the banks. Design/methodology/approach – The paper first provides an account of the government housing policy from 1995 to 2008 and argues that the cases brought against the banks and then at the legal basis of the charges. The methodology consists of a careful examination of the documentary evidence and an analysis of the changes in the relevant laws used by the Department of Justice when bringing charges against the banks. Findings – The paper concludes that both the basis of the cases against the banks and the purpose of large fines are open to question. Research limitations/implications – Much of the information is available. However, as the major cases against the large banks did not go the court, and the basis of the fines is a settlement between the bank and the Department of Justice, each fine is supported by a relatively brief “Statement of the Facts”. The evidence amassed by subpoenas issued by the Department of Justice is not tested in court. Practical implications – Much greater consideration must be given to more effective ways of holding banks and especially senior executives to account. Social implications – The imposition of large fines does not satisfy the public desire to see that justice is done. Such fines imposed on the ban are not likely to change bank behaviour. Originality/value – Its originality lies in setting out an account of government housing policy and its role in the run-up to the financial crisis. No one has carried out a careful analysis of the cases against the large banks brought by the Department of Justice and, in the second article, by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Was there a regulatory approval market for mortgages?

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 354-365
Author(s):  
Peggy Crawford ◽  
Joetta Forsyth
Keyword(s):  
House Price ◽  
Underserved Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Community Needs ◽  
Fannie Mae ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Government ◽  
Run Up ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Freddie Mac

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the underserved area requirements for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the government-sponsored enterprises [GSEs]) and the community needs requirements of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) contributed to the house price run-up in the USA. Design/methodology/approach – This paper predicts the incidence of “Rebounds”, which indicate that a mortgage had been previously denied, to provide evidence on whether certain regulations caused excessively risky mortgage originations. As a different lender rejected the loan given the interest rate that they were willing to charge and information on the borrower, a higher incidence of Rebounds provides evidence that lenders were more frequently disagreeing about loans. This can indicate differences in regulatory pressure or oversight across lenders. Findings – This paper provides evidence that the GSEs were purchasing fewer Rebounds directly from lenders. However, evidence suggests that indirectly, the securitization market served as a conduit for Rebounds to the GSEs that needed to satisfy regulatory underserved area requirements. The necessity of complying with the CRA was found to increase Rebounds. Among regulators, the Federal Reserve was found to have been particularly associated with Rebounds. Originality/value – The paper’s contribution comes from linking Rebounds to legislative and regulatory influences. This contributes to the literature on excess credit and fraud, as well as the effect of underserved area requirements and the CRA. Also, this paper adds a new dimension to the literature on securitization, by showing the influence of regulation on the securitization of risky mortgages.

Political pressure on Turkey's Central Bank will go on

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
The Past ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
The Us ◽  
External Sources ◽  
Run Up

Significance The CBRT is expected to respond at its regular monthly interest rate-setting meeting to the fall in inflation in January to 7.2%. However, while the nearly 50% slide in oil prices since last June has led to a sharp decline in headline consumer prices, core inflation has been hovering near 9% for the last four months -- significantly above the CBRT's 5% inflation target. Just as importantly, Turkey's currency has fallen to a record low against the dollar, losing 7% over the past month because of the increasing politicisation of Turkish monetary policy and mounting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin hiking interest rates as early as June, putting Turkish assets under renewed strain. Impacts CBRT independence is becoming one of the main focal points for market concern about emerging markets. Heavy reliance on external sources of finance will leave Turkey highly sensitive to resurgent dollar and increased US Treasury yields. Renewed lira weakness is likely to persist in the run-up to elections in June, which could also coincide with rising US interest rates. That would put further pressure on the balance sheets of Turkey's heavily indebted corporate sector.

Indonesian energy reform eyes public-private balance

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Resource Endowment ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
The Government ◽  
Private Investors ◽  
Energy Assets ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Subject Proposed reforms in the oil and gas sector. Significance In the face of strong resource nationalism, President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo's government faces strong pressure to improve the balance between public control and private participation in the oil and gas sector. To that end, the government proposes to amend the 2001 oil and gas law. Its draft amendment proposes, most notably, that state enterprises should control all production operations, while private investors provide technology and capital. The government is also considering revisions to the upstream regime, which is currently based on production-sharing contracts (PSCs). These changes require parliamentary approval. Impacts Private firms, especially foreign ones, are likely to delay fresh investment in energy assets, given the oil and gas market glut. Indonesia's vast natural resource endowment will attract private interest, but regulatory uncertainty will be an abiding problem. Transparency in the extractive sector will continue to rise at the national level, but local level reforms will be slow.

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