Prospects for Colombia in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Fresh Start ◽  
Content Type

Subject Prospects for Colombia in 2022. Significance With vaccine and economic growth figures suggesting Colombia may be emerging from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, legislative and presidential elections in March and May offer the prospect of a symbolic fresh start. Recent social unrest appears to have subsided and economic recovery has unemployment on the wane. Persistent challenges such as poverty and insecurity nevertheless look sure to test the new government from early in its term.

Skills shortage may hit Australia's post-COVID growth

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
General Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
General Increase ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Skills Shortage ◽  
Key Industries ◽  
Skills Shortages

Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.

Economic growth will boost Portugal’s government

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political System ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The Political ◽  
Turn Of The Millennium ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The Eu

Significance Portugal is set for the best five-year period of growth since the turn of the millennium, unemployment is falling and public finances are showing positive signs. The upswing is reflected in the remarkable stability of the political system. Impacts The economic recovery is likely to drive down yields on government bonds. Centeno’s appointment as Eurogroup president will raise Portugal’s standing in the EU. Security concerns in many Mediterranean countries are likely to boost Portugal’s tourism industry.

Bank caution will make Russian firms draw on own funds

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Productive Capacity ◽  
Fixed Asset ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Investment Rates ◽  
Growth Prospects

Subject Financing sources for Russian companies. Significance Low investment rates in the last three years have led to substantial fixed asset deterioration. Russian companies are trying to make better use of existing assets instead of renewing productive capacity, and the main source of investment is their own funds. Impacts As EU and US sanctions persist, Russia will strive to boost domestic capital markets. Prolonged low investment will restrict economic growth prospects for the medium-to-long term. Insufficient investment will limit productivity and undermine product competitiveness. Signs of economic recovery may boost mergers and acquisitions.

Nigeria's poorly performing economy could tip election

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Performance ◽  
International Investors

Subject Nigerian economic platforms. Significance The two main political parties in the 2019 presidential elections have released their campaign manifestos, both focused on similar themes of economic development and jobs creation. The governing All Progressives Congress (APC) envisages an expanded role for government in driving the economy while the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has outlined a private sector-led framework. Neither approach is likely to achieve their vast promises. Impacts The exchange rate is unlikely to be fully liberalised regardless of who triumphs. International investors have largely written off the chances of a full economic recovery if Buhari wins a second term. Abubakar's previous political flip-flops could sow doubts over his commitment to market-based reforms. A strong performance by technocratic candidates could signal growing voter appetite for change beyond the established parties.

Bolivia split opposition suggests another Morales win

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Stage ◽  
Opinion Polls ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Political update. Significance Primaries are to be held on January 27 to define candidates for the October presidential elections. In practice, these are largely perfunctory since most contending parties have already selected their slates for president and vice-president. Incumbent President Evo Morales leads in opinion polls, but opposition parties continue to claim that his candidacy is unconstitutional, citing the results of a referendum on presidential term limits held in February 2016. Impacts The opposition can unite around the bid to stop Morales running, but it suffers strong personal rivalries. The plethora of old faces challenging Morales will complicate any efforts to campaign based on calls for fresh politics. Bolivia’s continued strong economic growth will assist Morales. Morales will become increasingly isolated on the wider regional stage, particularly as Venezuela’s crisis deteriorates.

Unrest and COVID-19 will reduce South African growth

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South African ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Unemployment ◽  
The Government

Significance This chokes off an unexpectedly strong economic recovery in the first half of 2021. Meanwhile, unemployment has hit a record high at 35%, or 47% according to the expanded definition which includes people who have given up looking for work. Impacts Without higher economic growth, the unemployment rate will not substantially improve. The combination of low growth and high unemployment heightens the chance of further violent unrest. The government will have difficulty sticking with debt reduction plans without further dampening growth. Planned reforms in the energy sector could ease some of the country’s electricity woes in the medium term.

Vested interests may block urgent tax reform in Jordan

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
The Government

Significance It also looked at government-proposed amendments to another law aiming to reduce the scope for tax evasion in the Aqaba Special Economic Zone. Recent developments including the pandemic, an April political crisis between King Abdullah and his half-brother Prince Hamzah and now the Gaza conflict have highlighted popular dissatisfaction driven by economic grievances. Impacts Tourism should start to recover in late 2021, but revenue is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024 at the earliest. Forecast economic growth of 2-3% over the next four years leaves little scope for improvement in living standards. Without a strong economic recovery, the government will struggle to bring down an unemployment rate that has reached 24%.

France’s vaccine programme faces difficult challenges

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
French Government ◽  
French People ◽  
The One

Significance The country has the one of the world's most vaccine-sceptical populations, with polls showing that only four in ten people are willing to accept a vaccine jab. This difficult environment, combined with logistical challenges, threatens the success of the vaccination campaign and by extension President Emmanuel Macron's re-election chances. Impacts Muddled communication by the French government could exacerbate distrust towards political and medical elites. It is probable that the majority of French people will eventually accept the vaccine, but hesitancy threatens to delay recovery. A slow economic recovery could result in sustained anti-government protests in the lead up next year’s presidential elections.

Immigration will become an election issue in Chile

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Immigrant Community ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spanish Speaking ◽  
Reform Legislation

Subject The politics of immigration. Significance President Michelle Bachelet’s centre-left administration has announced plans to reform legislation on immigration in a bid to permit a more integrated public-policy approach and better guarantee immigrants’ rights. This follows calls by former President Sebastian Pinera and another possible right-wing contender in the November 2017 presidential election for tighter controls on immigration on the grounds of a relationship with crime. Impacts Immigration from Peru is showing signs of slowing in response to stronger economic growth there. Haitians will pose a new challenge as the first significant immigrant community that is not Spanish-speaking. Immigration is likely to be an important issue in this year’s legislative and presidential elections.

Third term bid will cloud Zambian funding prospects

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Financial Assistance ◽  
Considerable Progress ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Donors

Significance A recent IMF mission reported considerable progress towards agreement on a proposed 1.2-billion-dollar rescue package. However, the increasingly authoritarian bent of the Patriotic Front (PF) government is complicating prospects for wider financial assistance. International donors are wary of supporting President Edgar Lungu who stands accused of rigging the 2016 presidential elections, undermining civil society, and interfering with the judiciary to secure a controversial third, five-year term in office. Impacts Without a comprehensive economic recovery plan in place shortly, ratings agency downgrades could take place later this year. The removal of popular subsidies on food and electricity is likely to trigger popular protest and result in opposition gains. Rising demand for copper in the United States and China may result in a spike in prices, alleviating economic decline.

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