Economic growth will boost Portugal’s government

Significance Portugal is set for the best five-year period of growth since the turn of the millennium, unemployment is falling and public finances are showing positive signs. The upswing is reflected in the remarkable stability of the political system. Impacts The economic recovery is likely to drive down yields on government bonds. Centeno’s appointment as Eurogroup president will raise Portugal’s standing in the EU. Security concerns in many Mediterranean countries are likely to boost Portugal’s tourism industry.

Significance This is a crucial step for the government before year-end, together with long-term banking issues and slowing economic recovery. The European Commission has allowed Italy considerable fiscal flexibility; the government promises to start reducing its debt-to-GDP ratio this year. However, the slowdown could delay achieving this goal. Under this scenario, the government has to campaign for the referendum on its Senate reform. A 'yes' vote is key not only for reforming the political system, but the government's survival. Impacts A 'no' outcome would pull Italy into deep uncertainty concerning its political leadership. It would also end Renzi's premiership; a new majority could follow up to the 2018 general election. However, since Renzi is the PD leader, he is unlikely to support a new government; early elections are likely. In case of a 'yes' outcome, Renzi's premiership will be reinforced, marking a turning point to his declining popularity.


Significance The EP vote could in theory lead to sanctions under Article 7 of the EU Treaty (TEU). An 'illiberal state' has emerged in Hungary since 2010, profoundly and durably modifying the functioning of the political system, entrenching the power of the ruling Fidesz party and weakening the opposition. Impacts Fidesz will renew its strong majority in the 2018 elections and further consolidate its power in years to come. Member states are unlikely to agree on the deep reform of EU rule of law procedures that would allow a systematic response. Neighbouring states and candidate countries are likely to drift increasingly away from the liberal model.


2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anh Viet Le

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide the author’s opinion about the future of American tourism under Trump’s presidency. Design/methodology/approach This paper relies on secondary data. Findings The influences of Trump’s presidency on American tourism will be on both sides. It will influence the destination image. It will also influence the relationships between America with several countries such as: China, Mexico, UK. Originality/value Contributes to the knowledge about the future of American tourism when the political system is changed.


Significance He appears to have weathered this early political storm, achieving notable successes in areas such as tax reform. However, the political outlook remains uncertain, with a likely COVID-19 resurgence heralding new challenges in 2022. Impacts Containing the spread of the Omicron variant will be a priority for Lasso in the coming months. A pandemic resurgence would place downward pressure on economic growth and tax collection. Tax reforms will please international investors and support efforts to attract foreign direct investment to stimulate economic activity.


Significance The three parties successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with a strong emphasis on modernising Germany’s economy. Throughout the negotiations, the parties presented a public image of stability and harmony, yet several divisive issues will test the new government's stability and effectiveness. Impacts The composition of the new government will make it harder for Berlin to win approval for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will seek to prioritise more unity at the EU level when it comes to foreign policy decision-making. The spread of the Omicron variant will slow economic recovery and potentially delay the transition to a greener economy.


Significance The closing of internal and external borders in response to COVID-19 has heightened a longstanding skills deficit in key industries, with implications for wage levels, prices and broader economic growth. However, a general increase in immigrant numbers may not provide the skills that are needed. Impacts Labour shortfalls may delay government infrastructure projects that were designed to lead the post-pandemic economic recovery. Foreign investment may be affected by skills shortages in key areas such as mining and metallurgy. Debate on immigration levels could influence voting in the general election that is now likely to be held in April.


2007 ◽  
Vol 41 (10) ◽  
pp. 1349-1370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Manow ◽  
Holger Döring

Voters who participate in elections to the European Parliament (EP) apparently use these elections to punish their domestic governing parties. Many students of the EU therefore claim that the party—political composition of the Parliament should systematically differ from that of the EU Council. This study shows that opposed majorities between council and parliament may have other than simply electoral causes. The logic of domestic government formation works against the representation of more extreme and EU-skeptic parties in the Council, whereas voters in EP elections vote more often for these parties. The different locations of Council and Parliament are therefore caused by two effects: a mechanical effect—relevant for the composition of the Council—when national votes are translated into office and an electoral effect in European elections. The article discusses the implications of this finding for our understanding of the political system of the EU and of its democratic legitimacy.


Significance If the referendum passes, it will lead to significant changes to the political system, including new executive posts, the devolution of more national revenues to county governments and measures to ensure more women are elected to parliament. Impacts Fully implementing the BBI’s wide-ranging reforms may take years, and if mishandled could delay the 2022 elections. The proposals will significantly increase the cost of government, which in turn will exacerbate the shrinking fiscal space. An enlarged executive encompassing a broader range of leaders may boost political stability, but it will likely also aggravate graft.


2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Vauleon

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to focus on Rousseau's three major works: the epistolary novel Julia. Or, The New Eloisa, one of the eighteenth century's best sellers, the political essay The Social Contract, and the pedagogical treatise Emile: or On Education. It seeks to explore the innovative management theories Rousseau develops as he embarks in the simultaneous composition of these three major works, particularly as he conceptualizes his ideal society and envisions a brand new political system, one that would take into account the natural state of humankind in order to socialize them more efficiently. Design/methodology/approach – The paper explores Rousseau's solution to these obstacles, and examines his understanding of censorship, as well as the surreptitious control of people's values, tastes, and aspirations. His vision of humanity is very similar to that of “a machine to be put together by skillful devices”, assuming “that the materials of which it is composed are colorless and lifeless”. Findings – The conclusions reached in this paper hinge upon, in significant part, Rousseau's approach to management science, and the individual's subjection to authority, as well as the overarching necessity for any form of power to be imperceptible. Originality/value – The paper shows that in Rousseau's mind, people are mere pawns on the political chessboard, “to be arranged by the fancy of the legislator.”


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