Nigeria's poorly performing economy could tip election

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strong Performance ◽  
International Investors

Subject Nigerian economic platforms. Significance The two main political parties in the 2019 presidential elections have released their campaign manifestos, both focused on similar themes of economic development and jobs creation. The governing All Progressives Congress (APC) envisages an expanded role for government in driving the economy while the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has outlined a private sector-led framework. Neither approach is likely to achieve their vast promises. Impacts The exchange rate is unlikely to be fully liberalised regardless of who triumphs. International investors have largely written off the chances of a full economic recovery if Buhari wins a second term. Abubakar's previous political flip-flops could sow doubts over his commitment to market-based reforms. A strong performance by technocratic candidates could signal growing voter appetite for change beyond the established parties.

Political manoeuvring will be key for Ecuador’s Lasso

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Vaccination Programme ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Economic Liberalism ◽  
The Social ◽  
International Investors

Significance The conservative alliance that supported his election collapsed in mid-May, after his Creating Opportunities (CREO) failed to back the Social Christian Party (PSC) candidate for the National Assembly presidency, instead supporting Guadalupe Llori of the indigenous Pachakutik (PK). The decision illustrates the challenges that await Lasso as he attempts to navigate a legislature in which CREO has few seats. Impacts International investors will be buoyed by Lasso’s economic liberalism. Responsibility for economic recovery will fall largely on the private sector, making Ecuador more reliant on foreign direct investment. Lasso will hope to win popular support and build legitimacy by accelerating the COVID-19 vaccination programme.

scholarly journals 70 years of China's foreign exchange market development: history and experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-17
Author(s):  
Guogang Wang ◽  
Nan Lin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Exchanges ◽  
History Of ◽  
Reform And Opening Up

PurposeThe development of China's foreign exchange market and the reform of Chinese yuan (hereinafter “CNY”) exchange rate are closely linked with each other. Their respective journey through the past 70 years can both be divided into three historical periods; as follows: China's foreign exchange market underwent a difficult exploration period, a formation and development period and an innovative development period; in the meanwhile, the formation mechanism of CNY exchange rate also witnessed three periods marked successively by a single exchange rate system with administrative pricing, an explorative formation mechanism of CNY exchange rate and a reformed, marketized CNY exchange rate mechanism.Design/methodology/approachIn the present world, the development of almost every country is closely linked to the international community, which is the result of the heterogeneity in system, market, humanity and history, in addition to the differences in natural resource endowments and the diversity in technology, administration, information, experience and diplomacy. International economic exchanges require foreign exchange, which gives rise to the existence and development of the foreign exchange market.FindingsThe 70-year history of China's foreign exchange market has proven the need to continue safeguarding national sovereignty and interests of the people, stick to the general direction of serving economic development, adhere to the strategy of steadily and orderly promoting the construction of the foreign exchange market, keep on making innovation in monetary policy operation and unbendingly stay away from any systemic financial risks.Originality/valueDuring the 70-year history of the new China, as an indispensable economic resource in China's economic development, the foreign exchange mechanism bolstered each stage of economic development and was always an important manifestation of China's economic sovereignty. It is argued that during the 30-year planned economy that preceded reform and opening-up, China pursued a closed-door policy with few international economic exchanges. The subtext of such argument is that China did not have (or hardly had much of) a foreign exchange mechanism during this period, which is clearly in conflict with historical evidence. In fact, although China did not have an open foreign exchange market before the reform and opening-up, it had a clear foreign exchange management system and exchange rate system.

Nigeria's opposition could pose renewed challenge

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Niger Delta ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South West ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Food Inflation

Subject Nigerian opposition prospects. Significance Former President Olusegun Obasanjo on January 23 issued a scathing rebuke of President Muhammadu Buhari's performance and implored him not to run for re-election in 2019. Although yet to confirm his intentions, Buhari is expected to be the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) standard-bearer once more. Meanwhile, after four years of national opposition, the former ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP, in office 1999-2015) has overcome debilitating internal divisions and could become a serious electoral prospect once more. While this may lead to a competitive election, it could also potentially exacerbate the country’s manifold security challenges. Impacts The PDP could benefit from a proposed alteration to the electoral timetable to hold gubernatorial ahead of presidential elections. Fuel shortages and food inflation, combined with persistent underemployment and unemployment, will undermine Buhari's economic credentials. Violent election flashpoints are likely to include the central states, parts of the south-west (including Lagos) and the Niger Delta.

Contested Syrian oil will have limited economic impact

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Oil Fields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Position ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Significance This depreciation reflects the underlying weakness of the government’s financial position. Political and territorial advances in favour of President Bashar al-Assad -- most recently, the deployment of government forces along the Turkish border to the east of the river Euphrates -- have not yielded clear economic benefits. Impacts Sustained political and economic turbulence in Lebanon could further reduce the supply of US currency for the Syrian market. The US presence will complicate the government's reassertion of control over oil fields, but Russia could help resolve this problem. Pressure on business to support the exchange rate, with the threat of 'anti-corruption' investigations, could sap private sector confidence. US sanctions and crises in Lebanon and Iraq will reduce Iran’s ability to contribute to the Syrian economy.

Benin’s president will tighten his grip on power

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Political Participation ◽  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Project

Significance Yet only five political parties are allowed to take part: the number of recognised political parties has been dramatically reduced following electoral changes in recent years that have benefitted President Patrice Talon’s ruling coalition. The forthcoming polls are crucial for the 2021 presidential elections, as candidates need endorsement from at least 16 mayors and MPs to be eligible to run. Impacts Talon’s reform project is unlikely to curb political participation along regional and ethnic lines over the medium term. Recent reforms give Talon a major comparative advantage for the 2021 presidential poll. Political polarisation will increase the country’s vulnerabilities to jihadist infiltration with the security forces stretched.

Guinea-Bissau elections may not end instability

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
West African ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Guinea Bissau ◽  
Presidential System ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Turmoil

Subject Outlook for presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau. Significance Controversial outgoing President Jose Mario Vaz is among twelve candidates vying for the presidency on November 24. While the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)-backed elections are set to go ahead as planned, fears linger that they will not end recurring political turmoil. Impacts If Pereira wins, he will likely try drafting a new constitution to give greater clarity to the current ambiguous semi-presidential system. Ongoing political instability will exacerbate border insecurity and long-standing narco-trafficking. A more active, internationally backed civil society will ensure added scrutiny of political parties and the government over the long term.

COVID-19 strengthens EU drive for economic sovereignty

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
European Politics ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consensus View ◽  
Pharmaceutical Production ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU economic sovereignty. Significance COVID-19 is increasing momentum within the EU to enhance the bloc’s economic and strategic sovereignty by substantially reducing dependence on non-EU powers, particularly China. While the immediate concern is to become more self-sufficient in medical and pharmaceutical production, leaders are also set on strengthening European sovereignty in critical sectors including technology and automobiles. Impacts A strong economic recovery will be important in determining an EU consensus view concerning the bloc’s main economic competitors. Public investment in the private sector will provide greater economic stability, but more state influence on supply chains and investments. Scepticism of China will become a growing feature in European politics.

Kuczynski will face conflictive Congress in Peru

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Critical Distance ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Content Type

Significance His will be a government of competent centre-right technocrats, closely oriented towards business opinion. However, he lacks a majority in Congress which renders him beholden to the opposition Fuerza Popular (FP) party. A broad degree of continuity is likely in economic policy. Impacts The business community will remain broadly supportive of the new government. In the event of an executive-legislative clash, Kuczynski would seek to appeal to public opinion over the heads of political parties. The leftist Frente Amplio will maintain a critical distance. Political calculations will increasingly be conditioned by the 2021 presidential elections.

New Kazakhstan privatisations will interest investors

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Privatisation Programme ◽  
The Government

Subject Potentially interesting IPOs in Kazakhstan. Significance On November 24, Kazakhstani Deputy Foreign Minister Alexey Volkov said that a new round of large-scale privatisations would help stimulate the development of the private sector. Given that the price of oil is likely to stay low for some time, optimisation of public spending is a key priority for Astana. The government's planned exit from state-owned enterprises should also bolster the latter's management and profitability. Impacts The privatisation programme may enable the government to refocus efforts on economic recovery. Corruption will remain a principal obstacle to the successful implementation of privatisation plans. Proximity to political influencers will be a valuable asset for foreign investors keen to partake in the privatisation drive.

Ecuador banking sector is set for a comeback

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Loan Growth ◽  
Double Digit

Subject Banking sector prospects. Significance Private sector banks in Ecuador enjoyed strong double-digit loan growth last year -- a reflection of the troubled economy’s gradual emergence from recession. That economic recovery, and the pragmatic willingness of President Lenin Moreno to work with the private sector, is generating optimism regarding the prospects of the country’s banking sector. Impacts Strong bank lending is key for economic recovery, allowing firms to increase investments and consumers to spend more. Taking the E-money system from the central bank shows Moreno’s pragmatism vis-a-vis the private sector. The planned sale of state-owned lender Banco del Pacifico could attract the interest of foreign banks.

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