Gas supply/demand imbalance will persist into 2023

Significance The Asian spot price for liquefied natural gas (LNG) set records in late 2020 and again in October 2021, equivalent to USD325 per barrel of oil equivalent, with European gas prices some 30% lower. Gas prices will greatly influence living standards and economic prospects in 2022-23. Impacts The global gas market will be tight into 2022, but the scale of price rises depends on weather, Russian strategy and the economic situation. The market will turn back to oversupply, probably after 2023, assuming recent LNG projects stay on schedule. Gas companies are increasingly paying attention to decarbonisation and hydrogen, but this will not have a major direct impact in 2022-23.

Significance Sonatrach is preparing to renegotiate most of its long-term contracts to supply natural gas by pipeline and as liquefied natural gas (LNG), as their expiry dates approach in 2019 and 2020. Ould Kaddour, who was appointed Sonatrach’s chief executive one year ago after a period of turbulence within Sonatrach, has made clear that he appreciates the need for a flexible approach in an intensely competitive market. Impacts Algeria’s hydrocarbons production is declining, but global demand for LNG in particular is rising fast. Securing new natural gas supply contracts will be vital for Algeria’s revenue prospects. Ould Kaddour’s efforts to foster better relations with international companies could be rewarded by increased investment.


Subject Pakistan's LNG imports and natural gas supply. Significance Pakistan in July claimed it could become one of the top five purchasers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2022. The country is looking to address growing gas demand and reduce capital outflows for fuel oil and diesel imports; regasification facilities are required to convert LNG back to natural gas at atmospheric pressure. Impacts Fewer power shortages would decrease protests, especially prevalent in summer months, over blackouts. Pakistan’s natural gas vehicle sector could see a rejuvenation, curbing gasoline and diesel demand. Increased LNG use in domestic fertiliser production will reduce urea imports.


Subject LNG in Greece, Croatia and Poland. Significance Liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and interconnectors are part of the north-south natural gas corridor advocated by EU member states in Central-Eastern Europe (CEE) as a means to reduce dependence on Russia. Impacts The LNG project in Greece could slow down Croatia's plans to build an LNG terminal off the island of Krk. Access to cheap US gas via LNG is transforming the natural gas market worldwide. Cheaper gas may facilitate the transition from coal and increase the share of renewables across the region.


Subject South Asia's gas use outlook. Significance Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is to assume much greater importance in the South Asian energy mix, aiding the control of greenhouse gas emissions growth, but creating new import dependencies. Impacts The development of LNG import infrastructure will reduce the focus on regional pipelines. Improved gas supply will boost industry, power generation and gas use in transportation. South Asia’s gas imports will rise.


2020 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 450
Author(s):  
Eddy Glavas

The Sole Gas Project is a new offshore project delivering gas to south-east Australian domestic gas customers, and the first new offshore development introduced into a tight market since the three Gladstone liquefied natural gas projects have been in full production. During an overall industry downturn (~2015) an opportunity presented itself. The Sole Gas Project was always technically robust since the first development plan was assessed and selected but required a market signal for it to be commercialised and funded. As the foundation target in its burgeoning domestic gas strategy, Cooper Energy acquired the Sole gas field (VIC/L32) and the Orbost Gas Plant in two stages and pursued creative steps to combine focused subsurface and engineering techniques, a drilling campaign, partners, funding, gas marketing, regulators and community to deliver new gas supply without a single offshore lost-time injury or incident.


Subject Asian liquefied gas markets. Significance India has overtaken South Korea as the second-largest buyer of spot and short-term cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with the percentage of its LNG imports from such cargoes -- based on contracts of four years or less -- rising by 45% in 2015 over 2014. With global gas prices likely to remain low through to 2020, transforming what was a seller's market only two years ago into a buyer's market, a structural shift is underway in the demand for imported LNG in South and East Asia. Impacts The pipeline of new LNG supplies that will be added to the market in the next few years will ensure a buyer's market through to 2020. A persistently low global price could see Asian buyers opting for smaller volumes and shorter contracts for LNG imports. Sustainability of demand growth in new markets such as India will depend on the speed of expansion of infrastructure.


Significance Worries over supply shortages persist despite President Vladimir Putin's promise to increase deliveries. Russian output is close to the limit of current capacity and domestic demand is rising. European claims that Russia is withholding gas for political ends are linked to fears of conflict in Ukraine and controversy over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Impacts If gas shortages persist, Germany may approve limited flows through Nord Stream 2 before the pipeline is certified. Higher gas prices are a boost not only for Gazprom but also Novatek, Russia's largest liquefied natural gas exporter. Oil giant Rosneft may realise its long-held ambition to break Gazprom's monopoly on gas exports. Pipeline gas sales to China will remain uncorrelated with European market developments.


Significance Gazprom faced unprecedented disruptions in 2020: a mild European winter in 2019-20, the slump in demand stemming from COVID-19 impacts, and competition from liquefied natural gas (LNG) which depressed European gas prices. Declining sales undermined Gazprom's share in the European market and resulted in a USD3bn loss over nine months. Impacts Gazprom will use its own trading platform and spot trading in European gas hubs to supplement contract sales in times of volatility. Policymakers plan to establish a mechanism to ensure that Russian LNG deliveries to Europe do not compete with pipeline exports. Gazprom's domestic agenda will be dominated by government instructions to accelerate gas supply provision to under-served regions.


2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 31-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marte Fodstad ◽  
Kristin Tolstad Uggen ◽  
Frode Rømo ◽  
Arnt-Gunnar Lium ◽  
Geert Stremersch

2000 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
N Kuwahara ◽  
S.V Bajay ◽  
L.N Castro

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