Russian leverage in South-east Asia will grow modestly
Keyword(s):
Significance South-east Asia provides the Kremlin opportunities to advance its ‘great power’ interests. Meanwhile, the region remains a key theatre for the United States and China to play out their growing rivalry. Impacts Russia may try to sell nuclear power plants to the region, although it would face strong competition from other countries. Military action by Russia against Ukraine would hurt Moscow’s image in South-east Asia but no regional state would respond with sanctions. Russia-China relations will strengthen but the two countries will stop short of agreeing a formal political-military alliance.