Russia's leaders fear public wrath more than Omicron

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Travel ◽  
Qr Codes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Federal Support ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Public Opposition ◽  
Regional Governments

Significance A parallel bill requiring people to show electronic QR codes for train and air travel has been withdrawn. Both bills were halted by public opposition and President Vladimir Putin's call for a rethink. Meanwhile, 35 of Russia's 85 regions have relaxed their own restrictions ahead of the New Year holiday. Impacts Regional governments will have to face the new burden created by the Omicron variant, adding to the strain on their budgets. Substantial federal support for businesses affected by the new virus wave is unlikely. The Sputnik V booster will be introduced, although a mass roll-out is unlikely to occur before Omicron takes hold.

Vietnam will quicken pace of vaccine roll-out

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chains ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Roll Out

Significance Meanwhile, its programme to vaccinate the population against the coronavirus is proceeding slowly: fewer than 160,000 of its roughly 98 million people are fully inoculated. The only COVID-19 vaccine administered by the authorities to date is the UK-Swedish AstraZeneca shot, but Hanoi has received and ordered doses of other jabs as well. Impacts The authorities will keep use of Chinese vaccines limited. Quickly widening vaccination coverage will be key to realising the targeted average annual GDP growth of 6.5-7.0% in 2021-25. Vietnam will aim to become a key manufacturing hub for global vaccine supply chains.

Sonko protests will embolden Senegal’s opposition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Targeted Attacks ◽  
The Government ◽  
Public Disorder ◽  
Unemployed Youth ◽  
Roll Out

Significance He had been arrested for disrupting public disorder and attending an illegal demonstration after protests erupted as he responded to a court summons concerning rape allegations. His arrest and detention has triggered wider unrest and a public backlash against President Macky Sall and his government. Impacts Sall will increase budgetary spending to try to appease the growing numbers of unemployed youth. Deep public mistrust of the government could hamper COVID-19 vaccine roll-out. With anti-French sentiment increasing, French businesses will be at risk of further targeted attacks during protests.

Australian central bank holds rate as growth slips

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
Growth Forecasts

Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.

Indonesia’s new investment ministry faces headwinds

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Significance The government hopes greater domestic and foreign investment can help turn around the pandemic-hit economy. The governor of Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank, last week said GDP should grow by 4.6% in 2021, compared with last year’s 2.1% contraction. Impacts Indonesia will count on private vaccination, whereby companies buy state-procured jabs for their staff, to help speed up its roll-out. The Indonesia Investment Authority, a new sovereign wealth fund, will prioritise attracting more investment into the infrastructure sector. Singapore will continue to be Indonesia’s largest source of FDI in the short term.

Central America elections pose risks of unrest

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Central America ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Political Expression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Opportunities ◽  
Public Events ◽  
Roll Out

Significance Campaigning will be muted, as the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will constrain public events. Government handling of the crisis will be a consideration for voters, alongside more traditional issues such as insecurity, perceived corruption and poor economic opportunities. Dramatic improvements in such areas will remain elusive, whoever secures election. Impacts State weakness will hinder governments’ abilities to face health challenges and roll out vaccine programmes. Perceived impunity for politicians suspected of wrongdoing will drive unrest, especially if peaceful political expression is constrained. Costa Rica has no elections this year, but post-pandemic economic damage could hit government support ahead of 2022 polls. Economic hardship will drive more US-bound migration; an issue that will be formative for new governments’ relations with Washington.

Air travel will rebound by 2023 amid structural shifts

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Travel ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Border Control ◽  
Online Retailing ◽  
Commercial Aviation ◽  
Business Travel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leisure Travel ◽  
National Governments ◽  
Structural Shifts

Significance While consumers are regaining confidence, demand for international air travel is stagnant as most countries have border control measures in place. The relaunch of commercial aviation is in the hands of national governments. Impacts Mandatory pre-flight screening will gradually disappear, replaced by a structured exchange of passengers’ health information data. Business travel will be at least 10-20% lower, and more remote working will blur distinctions between business and leisure travel. Traditional carriers will refocus their strategies on long-haul and online retailing while developing new capacity for cargo. Punctuality will lose relevance as new metrics are adopted to measure sanitisation and cabin cleanliness.

Patents bill aims to boost Brazil's vaccine roll-out

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Boost Vaccine ◽  
Roll Out

Headline BRAZIL: Patents bill aims to boost vaccine roll-out

Business models for tourism and airlines will change

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Models ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Environmental Concerns ◽  
Business Travel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Tourism ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Major Airlines ◽  
Business Customers

Significance The initial answers will come from the leisure segment, which is set to recover faster than business travel. For major airlines, reliance on business customers and travel hubs are potential vulnerabilities. Impacts COVID-19 has sparked interest in domestic tourism, but many places, especially the Mediterranean, still rely on good accessibility by air. Different providers will offer more simplicity as well as boutique experiences; both will be attractive to different clienteles. Addressing environmental concerns does not necessarily mean leisure air travel must suffer; sustainable smart solutions can be developed.

East and West will divide over new Bosnian viceroy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Common Interest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
East And West ◽  
Dayton Agreement ◽  
Negative Behaviour ◽  
Roll Out ◽  
The Eu

Significance The summit’s avowed aim was to renew the EU-US ‘Transatlantic partnership’, including committing to upholding the international rules-based order built around the UN. It called for cooperation with Russia in areas of common interest despite its repeated “negative behaviour”. Such strains include Russia’s opposition to appointing a new high representative for Bosnia. Impacts Vucic’s call for regular reports from the high representative recognises his legitimacy while asserting Serbian interest in BiH. Croatian President Zoran Milanovic’s support for the 1995 Dayton agreement weakens outside backing for Bosnian Croat separatism. The World Bank has left its growth forecast for BiH unchanged from January, provided vaccine roll-out accelerates.

Vaccine deal collapse may undermine Brazil roll-out

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Roll Out

Headline BRAZIL: Vaccine deal collapse may undermine roll-out

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