Ivory Coast dialogue may ease political tensions

Significance Of three recent dialogue attempts, this is the first that occurs in an environment that appears conducive to reconciliation. This follows more than a decade of acrimonious relations between major parties, underscored by a fraught 2020 election in which 85 people died as President Alassane Ouattara secured a controversial third presidential term. Impacts The political dialogue will see the return of more political exiles. Ouattara will likely agree to the release of more low-profile political prisoners. Next year’s municipal and regional elections will likely be relatively peaceful.

Significance Efrain Alegre, president of the opposition Partido Liberal Radical Autentico (PLRA), did not attend the three-hour meeting, which agreed that the constitutional amendment allowing for presidential re-election would not be voted on in the Lower House until the negotiations conclude. It also agreed that the political dialogue would be reconvened on April 7, when former President Fernando Lugo was expected to attend. However, hours after the meeting ended, opposition politicians led by Senate President Roberto Acevedo said that they were withdrawing from the dialogue process until Cartes abandoned the planned amendment. Impacts Further protests are likely as Cartes presses ahead with the re-election amendment. The president will benefit from deep opposition divisions. Constitutional change would erode the intended brakes on presidential longevity and authoritarianism.


Subject Prospects for India to end-2016. Significance Policymakers are counting on improved agrarian performance, cheaper credit and economic diplomacy to drive growth in coming months. On the political front, after a modest triumph in the last round of regional elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are emboldened but still politically encumbered.


Significance On the basis of exit polls and preliminary rapid counts, the MAS has clearly suffered an electoral reverse. However, in line with previous sub-national elections, this reflects the problem the party has in selecting sufficient candidates at that level who command widespread support. For the opposition, the election represented something of a recovery from its poor showing in last October's presidential and legislative elections. Impacts Demographic trends will further underline the political and economic strength of Santa Cruz vis-a-vis La Paz. The downturn in natural gas prices will mean that the government will have less money to redistribute to sub-national tiers of government. Costas has reaffirmed his position as Morales's chief political foe, but his appeal beyond Santa Cruz is limited.


Subject Congress challenges. Significance Defeats in the 2014 general elections and a series of regional elections have left the Congress in disarray. On April 10, a crucial meeting of the central All India Congress Committee (AICC) will attempt to set a course for recovery. At issue is the leadership of the long-standing Nehru-Gandhi family, now personified by Rahul Gandhi, son of party president Sonia Gandhi and the Congress's vice-president. Impacts The Congress will oppose liberal reform in sensitive sectors such as land and retail, but endorse low-profile financial sector reforms. Continuing controversy over land acquisition will delay infrastructure projects. The BJP could lose Bihar state elections in December if all opposition parties join forces.


Significance Salafi-jihadi groups in Libya benefit from the security vacuum emanating from the political crisis. IS has been regrouping after losing its headquarters in Sirte in 2016, even as it faces serious setbacks in Iraq and Syria. Al-Qaida-affiliated groups also exploit the neglected south. Impacts A stalled political dialogue will give salafi-jihadi groups like IS the space to regroup, even amid airstrikes. Salafi-jihadi groups will engage in high-profile attacks, targeting government officials and foreigners. Persistent insecurity will inhibit Libyan efforts to reverse economic decline, especially if groups attack oil and gas sites. The spread of extremist groups raises business costs and compels neighbours to close borders, contributing to Libya’s economic isolation.


Significance The main opposition leader has refused to accept President Uhuru Kenyatta’s victory in the repeat presidential election on October 26. Odinga's withdrawal from the race guaranteed that Kenyatta would win a landslide victory, but also that it would be tarnished by questions of legitimacy. Meanwhile, Odinga’s vow to launch a national resistance movement has considerably raised the political stakes. Impacts An opposition boycott of companies involved in the election may deter foreign direct investment. The electoral commission has lost most Kenyans' confidence and major reform will be required before another election can credibly be held. Other African leaders may become increasingly wary of judicial independence, and look to establish greater political control of the courts.


Subject Coalition negotiations in Spain. Significance Attempts to form a government following the repeat election on June 26 remain fraught with difficulties. Although negotiations between the Popular Party (PP) and the Citizens party are under way, the Socialist Party (PSOE) has so far refused to support Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. Assistance from both Citizens and the PSOE is essential to the success of his efforts to form a minority government. Impacts Another failure by the political parties to deliver a government outcome would prompt moves for renewal to regain public credibility. Lacking an effective political response, Rajoy will continue to use the constitutional court to punish Catalan pro-independence efforts. Regional elections in the Basque Country and Galicia on September 25 will complicate negotiations between the PP and its electoral rivals.


Subject Prospects for Africa in the third quarter. Significance Regional economic growth is slowing from previous highs as the larger economies either strain under lower commodity prices or face slowing domestic indicators. Preparations for elections or party primaries shape the political outlook from Uganda and Tanzania, to Ivory Coast and Burkina Faso. Activity from Islamist militant groups sustains external and domestic attention on the need to strengthen regional security sectors; improvements are possible in Nigeria, but not Kenya.


Public Voices ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
John Anderson

This paper explores the way in which the music of John Adams responds to terrorism and looks at some of the controversies surrounding his work. It represents a reflection on how the musical and the political can interact in the modern world, engaging his work on the level of political dialogue.


Author(s):  
Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka ◽  
Jan Grinc

This article offers the first ever comparative analysis of the involvement of V4 parliaments in the sphere of European Union (EU) affairs. Its underlying research objective is to determine what conditions V4’s parliamentary participation in various EU-oriented activities such as domestic scrutiny of the government’s EU policy, the political dialogue with the Commission, the Early Warning System for subsidiarity control, and the green card initiative. Based on the actual scrutiny output, parliamentary minutes, and data from questionnaires, we address the questions: (1) To what extent domestic legislatures act as autonomous as opposed to government-supporting actors in these arenas? (2) Do they mostly act as EU veto players, or try to contribute constructively to the EU policy-making process by bringing alternative policy ideas? (3) What are their motivations for engaging in direct dialogue with EU institutions in addition to domestic scrutiny? and (4) How MPs envisage their own EU-oriented roles? While the article reveals that V4 parliaments mostly act as gatekeepers in the sphere of EU affairs, it also casts a new light on the previous literature findings related to the EU-oriented performance of the Czech and Polish lower chambers. We conclude that, generally, V4 parliaments refrain from fully exploiting their relatively strong formal prerogatives in EU affairs—a fact that can be partly explained by the composition of their ruling majorities.


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