Significance
However, even in this extremity, it maintains a hostile attitude to old enemy Islamic State (IS). In Yemen, the other regional country where the two come into close contact, the local al-Qaida branch in its August 28 newsletter also strongly attacked IS, accusing it of fomenting intra-Muslim divisions.
Impacts
Even those al-Qaida supporters claiming to see a more ‘moderate’ trend in IS only identify a long-term possibility of rapprochement.
As the Syrian conflict winds down, IS and HTS may step up competition, as insurgent cells launch terrorist attacks from desert bases.
Splits between the different al-Qaida branches could worsen as some seek more pragmatic alliances and others prioritise ideological purity.
In Yemen, al-Qaida’s deeper societal roots will give it greater long-term resilience than IS.