ISG is unlikely to infiltrate refugee flows to Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Inter State ◽  
Security Crises

Subject ISG infiltration of refugee flows. Significance Refugee arrivals in Europe in 2016, large if not at 2015 levels, will put yet more pressure on the EU, which is already struggling to address economic crises, political polarisation and inter-state divisions on how to address security crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. Suspicions have grown that among the refugees are operatives of the Islamic State group (ISG). Impacts ISG's foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria will seek to expand their relationships with existing extremist networks in Europe. Speculation over ISG's presence within refugee flows will continue, especially as far-right parties continue to perform well in elections. The EU-Turkey deal may slow refugee flows, but the existing numbers of refugees will continue to attract suspicion from authorities.

Middle East jihadist states will struggle to survive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Service Provision ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Territorial Strategies ◽  
Foreign Fighters

Subject Jihadist groups' territorial strategies. Significance Islamic State group (ISG) is just one of a number of jihadist entities using the security vacuum in the Middle East, North Africa and beyond to seek territorial control and establish government according to a purist understanding of Islam. Other groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Boko Haram are seeking similar goals in Syria, Yemen and Nigeria, respectively. Impacts The risk of ethnic and sectarian cleansing will increase. International efforts to strengthen central governments and their militaries will rise. Loss of territory in Iraq and Syria will reduce ISG's appeal to foreign fighters. Resource constraints mean public service provision in jihadist-run areas will be poor.

Social networks could counter lone-actor terrorism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Far Right ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
State Group

Subject Lone-actor terrorist motivations. Significance Recent lone-actor terrorist attacks in Orlando, Nice, Munich and elsewhere have made this threat salient for the public and policymakers alike. The number of lone-actor attacks has almost trebled since 1990 -- from a base rate of 5-6 per year, according to recent research. Yet the authorities find these types of attacks difficult to detect and disrupt ahead of time. Impacts Lone-actor attacks are likely to recur in the West while authorities struggle to respond. Islamic State group (ISG)-inspired lone-actor attacks may incentivise far-right lone actors to respond violently and vice-versa. The rise of encrypted messaging services and the dark net will fuel the debate around policing this problem without curbing free speech.

Muslim radicals face crackdown in Azerbaijan

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Security ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Committee ◽  
The Government ◽  
Security Operations ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Weapon ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
The Eu

Significance The bill's declared purpose is to prevent the import of foreign ideologies and to give law enforcement wider authority, in particular for 'special' security operations, arrests and searches. Its origins lie not in recent events in Nardaran but the destabilisation of the Middle East after the 'Arab spring', the chair of the parliamentary committee on religious organisations and public associations, Siyavush Novruzov, said. The secular regime sees a rising threat in radical Islam, represented by both Islamic State group (ISG) and a multitude of smaller groups. Impacts The government will strive for socioeconomic stability at all costs, expanding benefits and using the State Oil Fund's substantial reserves. The deteriorating regional security situation may undercut Azerbaijan's strategy of becoming a prime supplier of gas to Turkey and the EU. Baku will become more tempted to use anti-terrorism and anti-extremism as a political weapon against the domestic non-religious opposition. Azerbaijan's Shia form 75% of its Muslims, who form 97% of the population.

Saudi intervention opens door to Iran in Yemen

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Agenda ◽  
Arab Middle East

Subject Iran's role in Yemen. Significance Yemeni and US officials have long claimed that Iran backs the northern Huthi movement, which follows the Zaydi branch of Shia Islam. Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi and his Gulf allies fear that Iran is helping the group to overthrow Hadi's government as part of an attempt to establish an arc of Iranian interference in the Arab Middle East, from Lebanon and Syria to the Gulf. However, the Huthis deny any such ties with Tehran, and, until now, Yemen has remained low down on Tehran's regional agenda. Impacts Iran will use the Saudi intervention as an opportunity to build its networks inside Yemen in order to gain more leverage in the Gulf. More tangible Iranian interference in Yemen is likely to stoke further sectarian tensions in the region. Rising sectarianism within Yemen would enable al-Qaida and Islamic State group to gain greater traction in the country. Iran will refrain from military intervention so long as the nuclear negotiations continue. Tehran will lobby diplomatically to boost Shia rights and Huthi representation in any future government.

Prospects for the Middle East in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
State Group

Subject Prospects for the Middle East in the second quarter. Significance With average oil prices in 2015 likely to be 30-40% lower than in 2014, most countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will see a huge change in their financial performance. Oil exporters could face major falls in fiscal revenue and foreign exchange earnings, while oil importers will receive a welcome boost to their budgetary and external accounts. On the security front, regional governments will focus on the threat from an expanding Islamic State group (ISG), and the fallout from a possible nuclear deal between the P5+1 world powers and Iran.

Prospects for the Middle East in the third quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Negotiations ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Era ◽  
The Third ◽  
State Group

Subject Prospects for the Middle East in the third quarter. Significance International negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme are set to culminate in an agreement early in the quarter, reshaping the regional geopolitical map. Meanwhile the new leadership in Saudi Arabia will be tested on multiple fronts, including Yemen, the expanding influence of Islamic State group (ISG), and adjusting its economic policies to a new era of lower oil prices. Libya is looking for agreement on a national unity government.

scholarly journals CHALLENGES POSED BY THE IRAQI, SYRIAN AND LIBYAN CRISIS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION

2017 ◽  
pp. 33-45
Author(s):  
József Kis-Benedek
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Key Words ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
East European ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
The Eu

Povzetek: Leta 2016 in predvsem 2017 so se na kriznih območjih Bližnjega vzhoda in Severne Afrike pojavile nekatere pozitivne spremembe. Spodbuden dogodek je bila uspešna akcija iraških in pešmerskih sil, ki jih podpira zahodna koalicija, proti tako imenovani Islamski državi, katere rezultat je bila izguba ozemlja ekstremističnih organizacij. Avtor analizira vidike kriznih območij, in sicer Iraka, Sirije in Libije, ki se nanašajo na posledice nerešenega vprašanja migrantov. Poleg kriznih območij predstavlja tudi situacijo tujih borcev in varnostna tveganja, ki jih povzroča njihova vrnitev v domovino. Navaja ukrepe, ki so jih sprejele EU in njene države članice, da bi preprečile in obvladale grožnjo, ki jo predstavlja vračanje tujih borcev. Ključne besede: Bližnji vzhod, Evropska unija, migracije, Sirija, Libija, tuji borci. Abstract: In 2016, but mainly in 2017 some positive changes happened in the crisis areas of the Middle East and North Africa. Encouraging event was the successful actions of Iraqi and Peshmerga forces supported by the western coalition against the so called Islamic State, the result is the loss of territory of the extremist organizations. The author analyzes the perspectives of the crisis areas, namely Iraq, Syria and Libya, referring to the effects of the unresolved migrant issue. Besides the two crisis zones, he also presents the situation of foreign fighters and the security risks posed by their return. He specifies the measures taken by the EU and its member states to avert and handle the threat represented by returning foreign fighters. Key words: Middle-East, European Union, migration, Syria, Libya, foreign fighters.

Arab youth opinion points to instability, reform risks

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Youth Population ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Governments

Subject Arab youth opinion. Significance Arab youth views Islamic State group (ISG), terrorism and unemployment as the top obstacles facing the Middle East today, according to a new survey released on April 12 by a United Arab Emirates (UAE)-based PR firm, ASDA'A Burson-Marsteller. With the failure of regional governments to meet the aspirations of the region's large youth population contributing to the 2011 uprisings, the attitudes of today's youth expressed in the survey will shape the outlook for stabilisation, security and economic reform. Impacts Reconciliation between Riyadh and Tehran will be a fundamental first step to the region's stabilisation. Concerns about unemployment and falling living standards will drive social unrest and recruitment to militant organisations. Strong anti-US opinion will complicate Washington's engagement in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.

Scope of Turkey's Syrian incursion will be limited

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arab States ◽  
State Group

Subject Turkey's limited options in Syria. Significance Although it ostensibly targeted Islamic State group (ISG), Turkey's military incursion into northern Syria primarily aimed at preventing the Democratic Union Party (PYD) from extending its territory. Ankara's decision to launch the incursion was partly driven by domestic considerations, but has further strained Ankara's already very tense relationship with Washington, caused alarm in Russia, Iran and the Middle East, and further complicated international efforts to combat ISG. Impacts Turkish-backed forces' unprovoked attacks on the PYD have infuriated Washington, and will deepen the crisis in bilateral ties. Turkish troops' presence in a former Ottoman province will exacerbate Sunni Arab states' concerns about Ankara's neo-Ottoman ambitions. Syrian Kurdish distrust of Ankara has worsened and may lead to intensified PKK violence inside Turkey.

Erdogan may find events in Turkey escaping his control

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Area ◽  
Military Conflicts ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Eu

Subject Erdogan's vision for Turkey. Significance Since the July attempted coup, the government has purged 81,000 real or imagined opponents. Yet it has not been in turmoil, as is frequently claimed, even though President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's refusal to compromise on any front has locked Turkey into simultaneous expensive military conflicts, including participation in the civil war in Syria, just after 3,000 serving officers have been purged and just under 40% of generals and admirals either sacked or arrested. Impacts Erdogan's supremacy faces no foreseeable internal challengers or pressures to make policy changes. Turkey's international isolation will worsen, especially the US rift; the EU will keep its soft line while Russia will be friendly. The defeat of Islamic State group and recapture of Mosul will exacerbate US-Turkish tensions. Reliance on Russian energy imports may grow and new areas of cooperation be announced. Turkey's ambitious new health system may be an early economic area to run into financing problems.

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