Chinese trade flows are slowing, and risks rising

Headline CHINA: Trade flows are slowing and risks rising

Significance It dropped to 332.2, a decline of 5.7% since March 10, when the forint reached its strongest level against the euro this year. While the forint has fallen steadily against the single currency over the past several years -- it has lost 18% since November 2012, with half the decline occurring since mid-2017 -- it has come under more strain since March, owing to a combination of fallout from the US-China trade war and the persistently dovish policy stance of Hungary’s Central Bank (MNB). Impacts Markets have become increasingly pessimistic about the growth prospects for the euro-area. A technical recession is increasingly probable in Germany, where the benchmark ten-year government bond yield is at a near-record low. Central Europe’s economies are decoupling from the industrial slowdown in the largest EU economy, although divergences are narrowing. Renewed hopes of a US-Chinese trade truce, including a possible roll-back of existing tariffs, are improving sentiment towards EM.


Headline CHINA: Trade has momentum, but disruptions could rise


2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1776-1797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Galkin ◽  
Carlo Andrea Bollino ◽  
Tarek Atalla

Purpose China is a major energy import powerhouse, its trade deals have significant impact on international energy trade and global energy markets. The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of energy in China’s preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and their impact on Chinese imports of oil, gas and coal. Design/methodology/approach An extended trade gravity model framework is applied to explore the dynamics of China’s annualized energy import flows from the 22 economies that have PTAs with it for the period 1995–2015. Findings The effect of PTAs on trade patterns varies across the product groups and agreement clauses. The dominant factor affecting trade flows of coal, crude oil and oil products is the average tariff level. Its impact is less significant for gas imports, which are more affected by policy arrangements represented by a PTA variable. The depth and scope of a PTA do not affect Chinese energy imports patterns. Research limitations/implications This paper is focused on exploring the effect of China’s trade and foreign relations strategies on its energy imports through the prism of its PTAs. Estimating the direct impact of China’s initiatives in the areas of trade, investment, security, culture, etc., on its trade flows of energy products and other product groups using the methodological framework proposed in this study would contribute to better understanding of the issue. Practical implications The findings can assist both China and energy exporting countries that target Chinese market in better understanding the drivers of trade flows of energy products and design their PTA strategies accordingly. Originality/value This study applies the trade gravity model framework to assess the impact of specific components of preferential trade agreements – tariff reduction and depth and scope of agreement – on energy trade flows differentiated by product group.


Subject China-Bangladesh ties. Significance Bangladesh sits at a strategic juncture in South Asia, bordering China's main rival for power in the region, India. It is also located along the route of the Maritime Silk Road, China's project for global connectivity reaching out to Africa and Europe. Its economy is growing, opening up opportunities for Chinese trade and investment. Impacts Religious extremism within Bangladesh will be a concern for China's firms. Bangladesh will benefit from Chinese interest and rivalry between China and India. Primarily of regional concern, security flare-ups would fuel global tensions, especially regarding the impact of China's rise.


Subject Prospects for manufacturing in 2017. Significance Manufacturing will grow at a slow but slightly stronger pace in 2017. However, with global demand, commodity markets and trade flows remaining weak, intense competition will depress both sales and profits, and accentuate pressures to reduce costs. Companies and value chains investing in new technologies and the development of new and improved products and customer services will outperform industry averages.


Subject A possible second Trump-Kim summit. Significance Vietnam last week said it had not been told about the timing or location of a possible second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un but that it was confident it could host such an event. Washington earlier in January announced that a summit would be held in February, following landmark talks between Trump and Kim in Singapore last year. Impacts A summit in Vietnam would provide Trump with a distraction from investigations into his alleged links with Russia. The summit would bolster ASEAN’s claims to be crucial to promoting peace and security in the ‘Indo-Pacific’. A successful Trump-Kim meeting would be welcomed by Beijing but would not influence US-China trade talks. Trump would be unlikely to travel to South-east Asia for a second time this year to attend the East Asia Summit in Thailand in November.


Subject China's options for retaliating against US firms during trade tensions. Significance US President Donald Trump tweeted yesterday that he is working with China's President Xi Jinping to get China's telecoms giant, ZTE, "back in business, fast" -- even though it was penal US sanctions that forced the company to announce last week that it was stopping operations. The Trump administration is divided on whether its objective in threatening imports tariffs on Chinese goods worth 50 billion dollars, effective May 22, is to strike a deal to cut China's trade surplus with the United States or to change China's industrial practices. Impacts Compliance costs will rise even if trade tensions subside. Investors in industries that China sees as strategic (eg, semiconductors and integrated circuits) may face unwritten screening rules. Investors in automobile, aircraft and shipping manufacturing and finance may find new opportunities to enter the market.


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