U.S. - China: “Power Transition” and the Outlines of “Conflict Bipolarity”

This article focuses on the phenomenon of global rivalry between China and the United States in terms of power transition theory, which is scientifically new and relevant due to the increased attention to the so-called Thucydides trap, in which, as some experts claim, both states have fallen. This paper presents a different vision of the global rivalry for leadership in the shaping of a new world order, which has already taken the form of overt non-violent confrontation and manifests itself in technological and trade wars as well as scientific and cultural rivalries. Nevertheless, despite the non-violent nature of the rivalry, this process is followed by an increase in the military capabilities of states, mainly projected in the basins of the Pacific and Indian Oceans (Indo-Pacific region). The methodological basis of the paper is power transition theory, which has been developed over the past 60 years by A.F. Organsky, J. Kugler, D. Lemke, R. Tammen and other researchers, united in the TransResearch Consortium. The authors argue that the analytical prism of this theory is more relevant to the analysis of current global rivalry than the classical neorealist balance of power approach. Through the prism of the theory the issues of rebalancing the global system of economic governance are analyzed. Also, a comparative analysis of the US-Japanese and US-Chinese trade and technological wars is carried out. Both the military and aggregate capabilities of two countries on a global scale and in the Indo-Pacific region are examined. The conclusion contains findings and comments on the impact of U.S. - China rivalry on the system of international relations.

The U.S. and China in India’s Foreign Economic Policy: In Quest of Balance for Maintaining Strategic Autonomy

The paper investigates trade and investment relations between India and its two major trading partners, viz. the U.S. and China in the 2000-2010s. On the basis of mixed method research with equal use of quantitative and qualitative, as well as historical and statistical methods, the authors estimate the possibilities for expanding interstate interactions and the difficulties the countries might face. By comparing the scale and particulars of the product structure of Indo-American and Indo-Chinese trade, the authors reveal that intra-industry trade between India and the United States is at a fairly high level, which, in turn, is not typical for the trade between India and China, which is mostly inter-industry due to the sluggish cooperation of Indian and Chinese entrepreneurs. The authors assess the intensity of the Indo-American and Indo-Chinese bilateral trade between 2000-2018 by means of indices of intensity of Indias exports and imports to / from the USA and China, as well as indices of intensity of exports and imports of its partners to / from India. The obtained results outline the upward trend of the share of Indian exports to the U.S. relative to other countries, which indicates that India is successfully conquering the U.S. market, and Indian goods are becoming increasingly competitive. Meanwhile, the volume of Indian-Chinese trade remains on a much lower level than it could be expected with the current share of India in the world trade. In the meantime, neither for the United States nor for China, India is a dominant partner. The article also investigates major obstacles hindering the development of both Indo-American and Indo-Chinese bilateral relations. The obtained results enable the authors to predict that in the short- and mid-term economic cooperation between India and its leading partners is likely to strengthen, with India keeping striving for standing neuter while building the two most crucial vectors of its foreign economic policy.

Sustainability of the EU-28 Trade with China and the USA

There has been a lot of debate in global politics about fair trade, surpluses (also called positive trade accounts), and deficits (negative trade accounts) among the USA, China and the European Union (EU). The study aims to analyse the countries’ trade accounts through the lenses of international finance theory. Based on financial analytical models, the countries’ competitiveness and changes in their net foreign wealth were examined. The factors considered in the literature review are as follows: exchange rate, government tariff and tax policies, saving rate, manufacturing base, investments, natural resource abundance and others. The computation of the trade accounts was conducted using the ten-year international trade data (2009–2018) for the EU-28 member countries that became the main importer for China instead of the USA in 2019. The con ducted empirical research showed that Chinese trade has continuous deficits throughout European countries, and in some countries, it could be considered as an increasingly important structural issue (for example, in Poland and the Czech Republic). Trade with the USA, in turn, typically produces surplus for European countries, where Germany is the leader. The provided conclusions hold value for international trade managers in terms of their potential influence on public policy in the researched countries. In light of the financial crisis, the current export shock could be used by countries as an occasion to change the course and depart from the assumptions, which do not advocate for free trade.

THE EFFECTS OF CHINESE POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTPUT AND TRADE MARKETS

This paper examines the international effects of Chinese policy uncertainty shock. Using the factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model which can accommodate several economic variables from multiple countries, we model Chinese policy uncertainty jointly with three latent factors extracted from industrial production index, import value and export value. The results reveal that the change of one standard deviation of Chinese economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has a negative interference effect on global trade markets and industrial production, and so does the fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU). However, the impact of Chinese trade policy and monetary policy on three latent factors is not statistically significant. A country-level analysis shows that due to the heterogeneity of the economic structure and trade structure of each economy, countries have different responses to the uncertainty of Chinese economic policy. In particular, the extent to which imports and exports of each economy are affected is asymmetric.

Diplomacy vs. Economics: Examining the Roots of Decline in Sino-U.S. Trade in 1975

In 1975, the explosive growth of Sino-U.S. trade that only had resumed after 1971 ended with a severe decline from $920 million a year to just $461 million. The cause of the collapse was the unilateral decision of the People’s Republic of China (prc) to cancel several orders from late 1974 to early 1975. Scholars have advanced three reasons for the prc’s action, blaming to trade disputes, Beijing’s desire to punish the Americans for slow progress on the Taiwan issue, and Chinese trade officials preventing radicals from labeled them “compradors.” Each explanation, however, overstates the importance of high-level politics and ignores mid-level exchanges, as trade delegations shuttled back and forth across the Pacific in 1975. The article demonstrates that the real obstacle to trade in 1975 was China’s limited ability to purchase American grain in the same quantities as in the last four years, along with indications of a good future harvest in China emerging at the end of 1974. Economic factors therefore better explain the decline in prc-U.S. trade, providing an example of how in the last years of the Cultural Revolution, Beijing’s economic policy was more pragmatic than one would expect.

Dependency with Chinese Characteristics? A case study of Chinese engagement in Chile

This article demonstrates that while Chile has generally been successful in capturing the benefits of China’s economic rise, the country is also developing a market dependency on China in certain export sectors, namely copper and cherries. In order for Chile to break its increasing dependency on China, it must diversify its export markets and foster a more balanced conversation about Chinese engagement. In addition, Chile must invest more on value-added production prior to export. Chinese trade and investment are critical to a quick economic recovery from the pandemic; however, policies must be implemented now to ensure Chile maximizes the potential benefits and minimizes the inherent risks in the long term.

Chinese trade has momentum, but disruptions could rise

Headline CHINA: Trade has momentum, but disruptions could rise

Canberra sets China policy as it balances interests

Significance Chinese trade restrictions and deteriorating diplomatic relations are increasing public perceptions of Beijing as a security threat, yet mineral exports to China remain a mainstay of the Australian economy, particularly for some state-level governments. With an election looming, this leaves Prime Minister Scott Morrison engaged in a difficult balancing act. Impacts Beijing’s trade restrictions will see more economic sectors urging Canberra to diversify the country’s trade partners. Efforts to find new coal markets could set Canberra at odds with other Western governments ahead of COP26. The governing Liberal-National coalition and the opposition will share a harder line on China ahead of the upcoming election.

Apparel Industry in the EU–China Exports and Circular Economy

In the current social and economic world context, Chinese trade relations represent a challenge for all partners. The article provides an overview of bilateral trade, especially export, between the European Union (EU) and China in the apparel and accessories industry, most performance parts of the bilateral relations from the textile industry. The research is highlighting the major trends of export relations for this industry during 2001–2019. The author presents the evolution of articles of apparel and accessories exports in the EU and China, emphasizing the major tendencies for each of them. Further are developed benchmarks of Romanian contribution to the relationship between EU and China. The methods used present a multi-method approach, utilizing primary and secondary research through exploratory data from the official website regarding the apparel industry, as EU Statistics, International Trade Centre, and others. The main result of the paper shows that at the European level, one of the most important objectives for the apparel industry is to assure EU–China trade feasible barrier export instruments to develop efficiently the bilateral exports.