Chinese trade has momentum, but disruptions could rise

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Chinese Trade

Headline CHINA: Trade has momentum, but disruptions could rise

Weak forint will not shift Hungary’s monetary policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Bond ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
The Us ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Chinese Trade ◽  
Roll Back

Significance It dropped to 332.2, a decline of 5.7% since March 10, when the forint reached its strongest level against the euro this year. While the forint has fallen steadily against the single currency over the past several years -- it has lost 18% since November 2012, with half the decline occurring since mid-2017 -- it has come under more strain since March, owing to a combination of fallout from the US-China trade war and the persistently dovish policy stance of Hungary’s Central Bank (MNB). Impacts Markets have become increasingly pessimistic about the growth prospects for the euro-area. A technical recession is increasingly probable in Germany, where the benchmark ten-year government bond yield is at a near-record low. Central Europe’s economies are decoupling from the industrial slowdown in the largest EU economy, although divergences are narrowing. Renewed hopes of a US-Chinese trade truce, including a possible roll-back of existing tariffs, are improving sentiment towards EM.

Bangladesh ties serve China's global strategy

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
Global Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Religious Extremism ◽  
Maritime Silk Road ◽  
Chinese Trade ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
Opening Up

Subject China-Bangladesh ties. Significance Bangladesh sits at a strategic juncture in South Asia, bordering China's main rival for power in the region, India. It is also located along the route of the Maritime Silk Road, China's project for global connectivity reaching out to Africa and Europe. Its economy is growing, opening up opportunities for Chinese trade and investment. Impacts Religious extremism within Bangladesh will be a concern for China's firms. Bangladesh will benefit from Chinese interest and rivalry between China and India. Primarily of regional concern, security flare-ups would fuel global tensions, especially regarding the impact of China's rise.

Trump will highlight Vietnam as a model for Kim

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
East Asia Summit ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Peace And Security

Subject A possible second Trump-Kim summit. Significance Vietnam last week said it had not been told about the timing or location of a possible second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un but that it was confident it could host such an event. Washington earlier in January announced that a summit would be held in February, following landmark talks between Trump and Kim in Singapore last year. Impacts A summit in Vietnam would provide Trump with a distraction from investigations into his alleged links with Russia. The summit would bolster ASEAN’s claims to be crucial to promoting peace and security in the ‘Indo-Pacific’. A successful Trump-Kim meeting would be welcomed by Beijing but would not influence US-China trade talks. Trump would be unlikely to travel to South-east Asia for a second time this year to attend the East Asia Summit in Thailand in November.

US firms will feel pressure in China, trade war or not

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Integrated Circuits ◽  
The United States ◽  
Xi Jinping ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject China's options for retaliating against US firms during trade tensions. Significance US President Donald Trump tweeted yesterday that he is working with China's President Xi Jinping to get China's telecoms giant, ZTE, "back in business, fast" -- even though it was penal US sanctions that forced the company to announce last week that it was stopping operations. The Trump administration is divided on whether its objective in threatening imports tariffs on Chinese goods worth 50 billion dollars, effective May 22, is to strike a deal to cut China's trade surplus with the United States or to change China's industrial practices. Impacts Compliance costs will rise even if trade tensions subside. Investors in industries that China sees as strategic (eg, semiconductors and integrated circuits) may face unwritten screening rules. Investors in automobile, aircraft and shipping manufacturing and finance may find new opportunities to enter the market.

China will lift barriers to foreign financial firms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Market Access ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Shadow Banking ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Playing Field ◽  
Market Opening ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Financial Liberalisation

Subject Potential loosening of restrictions of foreign investment in the financial sector. Significance Senior officials are among the authors of a report released last month that gives policy recommendations for financial market reform, advocating broader financial market access for foreign players and a freer exchange rate. If adopted, the reforms will give foreign financial firms more control over their Chinese subsidiaries and enable them to conduct business in areas that are currently off limits to foreign investors. Impacts Broader financial market access does not guarantee a level playing field; protectionism will persist in more subtle ways. Financial market opening will not cease after the central bank's reformist governor retires; his proteges remain in key positions. Financial tightening to fight corruption, curb debt and reform shadow banking will continue, despite liberalisation vis-a-vis foreign firms. China will use financial liberalisation as a bargaining chip in US-China trade talks.

Post-US-midterm dynamic could ease China trade spat

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Intellectual Property ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Immediate Release ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Telephone Conversation ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Trade War ◽  
High Level

Significance This follows high-level China-US trade talks restarting after a November 1 Trump-Xi telephone conversation, November 6’s US midterm elections that delivered a Democrat-majority House of Representatives from January 2019 and US-China trade-related frictions at the APEC Summit (November 15-17) preventing a joint communique’s immediate release. These frictions have sparked fears of a US-China ‘trade war’, or worse, and what scenarios and drivers might see this avoided. Impacts China may eye further trade renegotiations with the next US president, from 2021 or 2025. Democrats would want any trade deal to include human rights and environmental protections; Beijing would certainly resist the former. China might offer intellectual property concessions on paper, since there are multiple ways to circumvent such restrictions. Trump could sell a ‘partial’ deal politically, but he may calculate that ‘China-the-adversary’ rhetoric will win more 2020 votes.

Long term US-China decoupling will hit US energy sales

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
The United States ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Energy Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Project Costs ◽  
The Us ◽  
Alternative Markets

Subject Impact of the US-China tariffs on the energy market. Significance Global trade is slowing, and the US-China trade tariffs are exacerbating the slowdown. US oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters are finding alternative markets, but competitive pressures are likely to rise as both oil and LNG markets face oversupply. The tariffs on goods imported to the United States are also raising costs for the renewable and non-renewable sectors. Impacts US LNG producers could struggle to place cargoes as European gas storage approaches capacity. The large number of US offshore wind projects underway may be held back because the US-China tariffs are increasing project costs. Weak world trade and GDP growth is capping energy demand, offsetting supply worries and curbing oil price gains.

Prospects for global trade in 2020-24

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
World Trade ◽  
Job Creation ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Global Trade ◽  
Trading System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Multilateral Trading System ◽  
The World

Subject Prospects for global trade in 2020-24. Significance US-China competition and a ‘populist backlash’ against trade in advanced nations are intensifying fears that the world is entering de-globalisation. World trade volumes are expected to grow modestly in 2019 and 2020, while the US-China trade conflict roils the multilateral trading system and global value chains, harming investment and job creation.

Investment will drive solid Taiwanese growth in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Trade Diversion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership ◽  
The Impact

Subject Taiwan growth prospects. Significance Taiwan’s GDP grew by 3.38% year-on-year in October-December 2019. This is an acceleration from 2.6% year-on-year growth in the second quarter to 3.0% in the third. Consumer spending has grown steadily, while investment reshoring and exports to the United States have grown even more strongly due to trade diversion designed to mitigate the impact of US-China trade tensions. Impacts Taiwan is not currently part of the Asia Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and its exclusion may limit its trade opportunities. If Taiwan learns from Japan’s experience of adjusting to an ageing population, automated social services could emerge as leading sectors. The president has a renewed mandate to introduce reforms aimed at raising wages and creating jobs, especially in high-skill industries.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document