Weak forint will not shift Hungary’s monetary policy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Bond ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
The Us ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Chinese Trade ◽  
Roll Back

Significance It dropped to 332.2, a decline of 5.7% since March 10, when the forint reached its strongest level against the euro this year. While the forint has fallen steadily against the single currency over the past several years -- it has lost 18% since November 2012, with half the decline occurring since mid-2017 -- it has come under more strain since March, owing to a combination of fallout from the US-China trade war and the persistently dovish policy stance of Hungary’s Central Bank (MNB). Impacts Markets have become increasingly pessimistic about the growth prospects for the euro-area. A technical recession is increasingly probable in Germany, where the benchmark ten-year government bond yield is at a near-record low. Central Europe’s economies are decoupling from the industrial slowdown in the largest EU economy, although divergences are narrowing. Renewed hopes of a US-Chinese trade truce, including a possible roll-back of existing tariffs, are improving sentiment towards EM.

Taiwan’s Economy in 2019: Reaping Benefits from the US–China Trade War

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 72-82
Author(s):  
Min-Hua CHIANG
Keyword(s):  
Ageing Population ◽  
External Trade ◽  
Business Operation ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Us ◽  
Growth Prospects ◽  
Trade War

Taiwan’s economy expanded moderately by 2.71% in 2019 despite the ongoing US–China trade war. The growing inward investment made by Taiwanese firms with overseas business operation had underpinned Taiwan’s economy despite falling exports. While mounting investment inflows to Taiwan would continue to buttress the economy, the rapid spread of coronavirus could threaten its growth prospects in 2020. In the long run, Taiwan’s lack of free trade agreements may further constrain its external trade development. Taiwan’s rapidly ageing population, one of key demographic trends, presents another challenge to its long-term economic prosperity.

scholarly journals A real driver of US–China trade conflict

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min-hyung Kim
Keyword(s):  
Transition Theory ◽  
Power Transition Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Us Hegemony ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Zero Sum ◽  
Hegemonic Stability

Purpose According to the conventional wisdom, trade is not a zero-sum game, but a positive-sum game. By allowing countries to focus on producing the goods that they can produce relatively efficiently, free trade is largely beneficial for everyone involved. Then, why are the world’s two largest economies (i.e. the USA and China) currently engaged in a trade war, which is likely to hurt their own economies? What is the driving force for the trade war between the two economic giants? The purpose of this paper is to offer an explanation of the underlying cause of the US–China trade war. Design/methodology/approach In an effort to make sense of the trade war between the USA and China, the paper draws the insights from the two international relations theories – i.e. hegemonic stability theory and power transition theory. Findings As China continues to threaten US hegemony in the world in general and East Asia in particular, the Sino–US competition for hegemony will intensify over time. As a result, the trade war between the two countries may persist longer than many anticipate. Further, even if the trade war between the two superpowers ends soon, a similar type of conflict is likely to occur later as long as the Sino–US hegemonic rivalry continues. Originality/value The central thesis of this paper is that “US fear” about its declining hegemony and China’s rapid rise as a challenger of US hegemony is driving a US-launched trade war with China. Since the underlying cause of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies is political (i.e. the Sino–US hegemonic rivalry) rather than economic (e.g. US attempts to improve the trade balance with China by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods), the paper contends that the full understanding of the trade war requires close attention to the importance of power competition between the two superpowers.

Hungarian forint is increasingly vulnerable to attack

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
External Environment ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
The Us ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Global Growth

Subject Central banks’ policy dilemmas. Significance The National Bank of Hungary (MNB) remains extremely reluctant to raise interest rates despite increasing pressure on the forint. While growth in the euro-area is likely to remain weak this year, strengthening the case for rates to remain on hold, a more supportive external environment, underpinned by an easing of US-China trade tensions, would accentuate the policy dilemmas confronting Central Europe’s central banks, especially given rises in inflation. Impacts Germany’s still-negative ten-year bond yield has risen from record lows in September as markets become less pessimistic about global growth. Markets expect Hungarian monetary policy to remain very dovish, as the domestic twelve-month bond-yield’s end-October turn negative shows. The US S&P 500 index surged by nearly 30% last year and if US-China trade tensions ease slightly this should help it to maintain momentum.

Biden win would improve Mexico relations

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dispute Settlement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Pragmatic Approach ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
Us Senate

Significance Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has strived to maintain cordial relations with incumbent US President Donald Trump, despite his aggressive rhetoric towards Mexico. A Biden win would improve bilateral relations significantly. Impacts Biden’s interest in Mexico may stretch beyond trade and the border to a wider range of issues, leading AMLO to see him as interventionist. A Republican-dominated US Senate would increase attention on issues of interest to businesses, such as investor-state dispute settlement. Any easing of the US-China trade war could weaken the perceived urgency of the need to re-shore supply chains, to the detriment of Mexico. Mexico’s economic dependence on the United States will ensure AMLO maintains a pragmatic approach towards any bilateral disputes.

scholarly journals Differential impacts of the US–China trade war and the outbreak of COVID-19 on Chinese air quality

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Avik Sinha ◽  
Muhammad Ibrahim Shah
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Health Hazard ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Multiple Structural Breaks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact

PurposeOver the last couple of years, the Chinese manufacturing sector was affected by the onset of the US–China trade war and the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In such a scenario air quality in China has encountered a shock, and the impacts of these two incidents are unknown. In this study, the authors analyze the convergence of air quality in China in the presence of multiple structural breaks and how the impacts of these two events are different from each other.Design/methodology/approachIn order to assess the nature of shocks in the presence of multiple structural breaks, unit root tests with multiple structural breaks are employed.FindingsThe results reveal that air quality in China is showing the sign of convergence, and it is consistent across 18 provinces which are worst hit by the outbreak of COVID-19. In the presence of transitory shocks, the impact of COVID-19 outbreak is found to be higher, whereas the impact of the US–China trade war is found to be more persistent. Lastly, the outbreak of COVID-19 has been found to have more impact on pollutants with higher severity of health hazard.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that contributes to the empirical literature in terms of investigating the convergence of overall air pollution and individual air pollutants taking COVID-19 and the trade war into account.

Consumer brand engagement in the US–China trade war

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Hsuan Lee ◽  
Chiou-Fong Wei ◽  
Bruce C. Y. Lee ◽  
Ya-Yun Cheng ◽  
Yao Chen
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Mediating Effect ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Chinese Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brand Engagement ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War

PurposeThis study examines whether consumer brand engagement (CBE) can mitigate the negative effects of economic animosity (EA) on purchase intention (PI) and strengthen the positive effect of country-of-origin (COO) on PI.Design/methodology/approachUsing questionnaires distributed to 372 young Chinese adults, the study collected PI data for US products in the Chinese market. Partial least square structural equation modeling was adopted.FindingsThis study found a positive relationship between COO and CBE and a negative relationship between EA and CBE. CBE exhibits a partial mediating effect in the relationship between COO and PI and a full suppression effect on EA toward PI.Research limitations/implicationsThis research is limited to China; future research could extend this framework to the United States.Practical implicationsThis study contributes to relationship marketing knowledge. Furthermore, it provides new tools for multinational corporations to deploy their marketing strategies and avoid negative consequences stemming from the EA effect in the Chinese market following the US–China trade war.Originality/valueThis study is the first to extend COO and EA research to CBE discipline.

scholarly journals The Dimensions of the US-China Trade War

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-55
Author(s):  
Mohamad Zreik
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bilateral Agreements ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Trade War

AbstractThe Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a statement Friday morning, July 6, 2018, confirming the outbreak of a trade war between the United States and China. The statement came after the United States imposed tariffs on many Chinese goods, in violation of international and bilateral agreements, and the destruction of the concept of free trade which the United States calls for following it. It is a war of opposite directions, especially the contradiction between the new Trump policy and the Chinese approach. The proof is what US Defense Secretary James Matisse announced in Singapore in early June 2018 of “the full strategy of the new United States, in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific,” where China was the “sole enemy of the United States” in China’s geostrategic region. Intentions have become publicized, and trade war between the two economic giants is turning into a reality. This paper will give an overview of the US-China scenario of trade war, then a focused analysis on the Trump’s administration economic decision regarding China, and the consequences of this decision.

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