Saudi anger over US pressure risks long-term pushback

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Content Type

Headline SAUDI ARABIA/US: Anger risks long-term pushback

Saudi ejection of Yemeni workers may have dire results

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Mutual Trust ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Western Border ◽  
Unskilled Workers ◽  
Initial Focus

Significance The initial focus was on professionals employed in the south-western border governorates; however, there are growing reports of an impact across the country, also including unskilled workers. This comes as the Saudi-led coalition continues its intervention in the Yemen conflict that began in 2015. The Riyadh-based government-in-exile has protested. Impacts Anti-Saudi sentiments will strengthen among Yemenis of all political affiliations. Mutual trust between Riyadh and the internationally recognised government of Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansur al-Hadi will decline further. In south-western Saudi Arabia, fear and anger between people of Yemeni origin and nationals will rise, undercutting long-term cultural ties.

Jihadists will slow stabilisation of Yemen's south

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Central Government ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Actors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Government Authority

Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.

Saudi terrorism threat is rising and long term

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Terrorism Threat

Headline SAUDI ARABIA: Terrorism threat is rising and long term

Saudi's Yemen campaign may disrupt Horn relations

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Red Sea ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Decisive Victory ◽  
Arab States ◽  
Strategic Relationships ◽  
The Impact

Subject Implications of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen for relation in the Horn of Africa. Significance The intervention of the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen threatens to re-order strategic relationships between concerned Arab states and the Horn of Africa. The largest indication of this shift is the Red Sea security agreement between Eritrea and Saudi Arabia on April 30. The agreement has rankled Ethiopia and its regional allies, who are keen to 'contain' Eritrea and prevent its bid to emerge from international isolation. Given the range of other interests that Ethiopia shares with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Yemen, it is unlikely that a significant rupture will occur. However, the impact of these tensions could be significant, as Ethiopia will remain committed to thwarting closer relations between Asmara and Arab states. Impacts Riyadh's outreach to allies is a tactic for success in its Yemen campaign and may not necessarily indicate long-term strategic shifts. Such new relationships will be highly contingent on developments in Yemen. However, Saudi Arabia will not halt the campaign until a decisive victory against the Huthi rebels and forces loyal to the former president.

Prospects for the Gulf states to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gcc Countries ◽  
Oil Revenue ◽  
Gulf States

Subject Prospects for the Gulf states to end-2017. Significance Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries agree on the need to check Iran’s regional aspirations, but differ radically on how to achieve this goal -- pushing Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to open confrontation with Qatar and leaving Kuwait and Oman caught uncomfortably in the middle. At the same time, they face the major challenge of adjusting their economies to long-term expectations of lower oil revenue.

Saudi operations will stoke long-term Shia resentment

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Content Type

Headline SAUDI ARABIA: Plan stokes long-term Shia resentment

Riyadh faces a long-term COVID-19 pilgrimage concern

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Content Type

Headline SAUDI ARABIA: COVID-19 is a long-term pilgrimage worry

Rising southern conflict threatens Yemen’s future

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
The Political ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Two Sides

Significance The Hadi government and the STC have been slow to implement the November 2019 Riyadh Agreement on power-sharing in the south. Tensions have again been rising between the two sides in recent weeks, with each making contradictory appointments to official positions in Aden. Impacts Emirati backing could encourage the STC to control Hadi’s government, undermining its anti-Huthi offensive in Marib. Saudi Arabia could further boost support for pro-Hadi forces because of UAE tensions, and strengthen them on the Marib front. Increased fragmentation of the political spectrum will make a long-term solution to the country’s crisis even more unlikely. The suffering and despair of millions of Yemenis will intensify.

Ideological divisions will drive jihadist rivalry

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Current Lead ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Long Term Survival ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Islamic Tradition ◽  
Ideological Differences ◽  
State Group

Subject Ideological divisions between Islamic State group and al-Qaida. Significance Islamic State group (ISG) and al-Qaida are both rooted in the same ideology, namely jihadi-salafism, which draws heavily on the Islamic tradition native to Saudi Arabia known as Wahhabism. However, fundamental ideological differences exist between the two rival groups, contributing to their acrimonious split in February 2014. Ideology underlies their divergent strategies and priorities, and will play a key part in determining which one wins the battle for supremacy of the global jihadist movement. Impacts Reconciliation is highly unlikely, but tactical cooperation will still occur on the ground. Sectarian attacks will increase, raising perceptions of a regional Sunni-Shia war. Competition for leadership of the global jihad could see both groups attempt attacks on Western targets. Military setbacks could narrow ISG's current lead over al-Qaida in terms of popularity and profile. Al-Qaida's more conciliatory and accommodative approach to local groups may mean it has greater prospects of long-term survival than ISG.

Russian military power will be tested in Syria gamble

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Military Power ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intelligence Agencies ◽  
To Come ◽  
Russian Military

Significance Recent days have seen dangerous and uncoordinated Russian action with violations of Turkish airspace as well as missile strikes directed from the Caspian Sea. Impacts Saudi Arabia and Gulf allies opposed to Assad are likely to increase support to Syrian rebels, forcing Moscow to escalate further. Western intelligence agencies are likely to come under greater parliamentary scrutiny for perceived failures to predict Kremlin thinking. While the threat remains long term, the immediate military risk to Ukraine has lowered as Russia needs to focus on Syria. The risk to civilian aircraft could grow if Russia uses increasingly reckless tactics from the Caspian Sea.

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