Russian military power will be tested in Syria gamble

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Military Power ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intelligence Agencies ◽  
To Come ◽  
Russian Military

Significance Recent days have seen dangerous and uncoordinated Russian action with violations of Turkish airspace as well as missile strikes directed from the Caspian Sea. Impacts Saudi Arabia and Gulf allies opposed to Assad are likely to increase support to Syrian rebels, forcing Moscow to escalate further. Western intelligence agencies are likely to come under greater parliamentary scrutiny for perceived failures to predict Kremlin thinking. While the threat remains long term, the immediate military risk to Ukraine has lowered as Russia needs to focus on Syria. The risk to civilian aircraft could grow if Russia uses increasingly reckless tactics from the Caspian Sea.

Saudi anger over US pressure risks long-term pushback

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Content Type

Headline SAUDI ARABIA/US: Anger risks long-term pushback

Saudi ejection of Yemeni workers may have dire results

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Mutual Trust ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Western Border ◽  
Unskilled Workers ◽  
Initial Focus

Significance The initial focus was on professionals employed in the south-western border governorates; however, there are growing reports of an impact across the country, also including unskilled workers. This comes as the Saudi-led coalition continues its intervention in the Yemen conflict that began in 2015. The Riyadh-based government-in-exile has protested. Impacts Anti-Saudi sentiments will strengthen among Yemenis of all political affiliations. Mutual trust between Riyadh and the internationally recognised government of Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansur al-Hadi will decline further. In south-western Saudi Arabia, fear and anger between people of Yemeni origin and nationals will rise, undercutting long-term cultural ties.

FEATURES OF SNOW COVER OF SEMI-DESERTS AND DRY STEPPES OF THE CASPIAN SEA ACCORDING TO SATELLITE DATA FOR THE PERIOD 2001...2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 101 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-87
Author(s):  
A.G Terekhov ◽  
◽  
N.I. Ivkina ◽  
N.N. Abayev ◽  
A.V. Galayeva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Dry Steppe ◽  
Natural Tendency ◽  
Second Mode ◽  
Continental Climate

The Snow Depth FEWS NET daily product was used to analyze snowy regime of the upper part of the River Emba basin from January 1 to April 30 for the period of 2001...2020. The Emba River basin is situated in Kazakhstan at the Eastern coast of the Caspian Sea. The area is characterized by the arid and extreme continental climate with dry-steppe and semi-desert landscapes. The population is small and the anthropogenic impact on the snow cover is minimal there. These conditions give an opportunity to identify the natural tendency in long-term changes of snow covering in semidesert zone of Kazakhstan. This paper describes the characteristics of the formation and destruction of the snow cover in the last 20 years. It was indicated that snowy regime has a trigger structure including two states; low-snowy regime and others years. It was shown that the snowy conditions are triggered. There are two modes, the first, as a low-snowy regime (up to 50 % of the entire sample) and the second mode includes other years. Significant variations of snow depth in various years masked many years’ tendencies of snow cover characteristics. But low-snowy regime was observed four times during five last years that can relate with modern decreasing snow covering in semi-desert zone of Kazakhstan.

Weak security forces threaten South African stability

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Police Reform ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Security ◽  
Intelligence Agencies

Significance These have long been matters of serious concern. President Cyril Ramaphosa on August 5 responded with a cabinet reshuffle that replaced the minister of defence, closed down the ministry of state security and moved intelligence agencies into the presidency. Impacts Planned cuts to security force budgets will be politically unsustainable. Ramaphosa’s decision to retain Minister of Police Bheki Cele in post casts doubt on the prospects of much-needed police reform. Incorporating intelligence functions into the presidency may speed reforms but also poses long-term dangers of more abuses.

Russian Arctic military power will grow

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Search And Rescue ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Military Power ◽  
Russian Arctic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Russian Military

Significance The past year has seen the Russian military expand its exercises and other activities in the region. As well as creating a new joint command for the Arctic, the Kremlin is increasing the capacity of its military and paramilitary forces to operate there, including on search-and-rescue missions. This ramp-up reflects the broader modernisation of the entire armed forces, which Putin reiterated yesterday remained a key priority. Impacts Other countries engage in military activities in the region, but only Russia has taken major steps to militarise its Arctic frontier. Russian leaders profess peaceful motives but warn that Moscow will defend its Arctic interests with force if necessary. Russia will commission a fleet of highly versatile vessels that can serve as tugs, icebreakers or patrol ships.

Iran gas can diversify European supplies in long term

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal reached between Iran and the P5+1 negotiating group (UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany) on July 14 promises to end most sanctions on the country, in return for suspension and monitoring of its nuclear programme. If ratified by all parties, it will create opportunities for an expansion of Iran's gas production and exports. Iran is the holder of the world's largest gas reserves, according to BP estimates. It is also the third-largest producer (after the United States and Russia, and probably having overtaken Qatar during 2015), and the fourth-largest consumer. Impacts Iran could increase gas exports by advancing projects stalled by sanctions, although most of these will take some years to come to fruition. Iran would seek to attract foreign investment into its gas industry to increase production and exports in the longer term. If this occurs, Iran will compete with other gas exporters, particularly Russia, into the 2020s.

Russia is expanding its military options in Syria

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Training ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Active Role ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
State Group

Subject Russia's diversified military capacity in Syria. Significance Russian armed forces played an active role in the Syrian government's recapture of Palmyra in March, despite the partial withdrawal of Russian aircraft from Syria. As well as air strikes, months of Russian military training and arms deliveries enhanced the Syrian army's combat capacity, contributing to a rapid collapse of Islamic State group (ISG) resistance. The operation showed how Russia has widened the instruments available: it can scale conventional air strikes up or down, provide fire support from helicopters or artillery, and use these elements to compensate for deficiencies in the Syrian military, while supplying weaponry, training and coordination to local forces. Impacts Russian military support can ensure the Syrian regime's survival, but that will require a long-term presence. The recapture of Aleppo would constitute a near fatal blow to the Syrian rebel movement. The Russian military will learn lessons about weaponry and coordination from the Syrian operation. Elements of these lessons including control of proxy forces may be applied in future foreign interventions. The use of mercenaries, trialled in Syria, offers Moscow a useful and deniable instrument abroad.

Jihadists will slow stabilisation of Yemen's south

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Central Government ◽  
The South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Actors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
Government Authority

Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.

Imran Khan is likely to become Pakistan prime minister

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Military

Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document