Ukraine wins US military aid but nothing on energy

Headline UKRAINE/UNITED STATES: Kyiv secures only military aid

Significance The trip to Washington by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari last month has raised questions about whether the United States plans to step up its military support to assist with counterinsurgency against Boko Haram. However, speculation on whether the United States may soften its stance on military support to Nigeria belies the broader structural obstacles that limit US military engagement to Africa. Impacts The United States prefers for other actors to lead on African security crises, such as France in Mali or the African Union in Somalia. African security affairs are highly unlikely to feature in US presidential candidates' speeches, nor national security manifestos. US military activities also remain constrained by African governments' unwillingness to host foreign operations.


Significance The Vietnam analogy implies that President Joe Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan will have deeply negative consequences for the United States. However, Afghanistan is not Vietnam and the Biden withdrawal needs to be considered within the wider context of his administration’s review of US commitments abroad. Impacts The White House will be pressured to clarify the future of other US military commitments, particularly in Iraq. Biden will seek to reassure allies, particularly those in NATO, that his commitment to multilateralism will not diminish. Biden may seek an opportunity for a military show of force, possibly in the Middle East, to refute accusations of weakness.


Subject Israeli domestic politics update. Significance Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's cabinet unanimously approved a bi-annual state budget for 2017 and 2018 on August 12. While the budget reflects a policy of greater spending on social affairs and lower taxes, its main importance is political. Once approved by the Knesset in November, the budget will pave the way for Netanyahu to remain prime minister until the next elections, at present scheduled for early 2019. Impacts In his fourth term, with more than ten years as prime minister, Netanyahu faces no major threats to his leadership. No progress is expected in the Israeli-Palestinian process in the short-to-medium term. Israel will seek to secure a ten-year deal on US military aid before end-2016.


Subject Israel's policy to post-agreement Iran. Significance With the international community on the verge of signing a deal with Iran that would end the decade-long dispute over its nuclear programme, Israel is preparing to deal with the consequences. The deal would bolster Israel's security by preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear weaponised state. However, it is also likely to empower Iran, by leading to the unraveling of the international sanctions regime, and giving Iran de facto international recognition as a regional power. Impacts Israel's Republican allies in US Congress will make it extremely hard for Obama to lift congressional bilateral sanctions. However, neither Congress nor Israel have the power to block a deal from going ahead. Israel will use the deal to secure 'compensation' in the form of additional US military aid. A deal would allow the army to transfer resources to confronting asymmetric campaigns against Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel will strengthen its ties with Sunni states that also oppose Iran.


Subject Strategic entanglement of India, Pakistan and the United States. Significance Washington is slashing Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) payments to Islamabad, in the belief that Pakistan harbours the very militants that the United States is fighting in Afghanistan. Washington envisions deeper military cooperation overall with Delhi, which accuses Pakistan of sponsoring militants who act against India. Islamabad is being driven closer to Washington’s rival Beijing. Impacts Pakistan will step up efforts to complete an anti-militant fence on the disputed border with Afghanistan. India is likely to resist any calls from the United States to begin joint patrols in the Indian Ocean. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will face security risks from Islamist militants and Baloch separatists.


Significance Mali’s economy has suffered a double blow in recent months from ECOWAS sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic, amidst political turbulence and ongoing insecurity. The country ranks 184th out of 189 countries, according to the most recent Human Development Index. Impacts Economic hardship could lead to renewed unrest. Labour unions are already ratcheting up pressure; several are planning to strike from October 19 over pay and working conditions. The transition may allow the resumption of development aid, although the United States has suspended military aid until elections.


Subject Creation of the US Space Force. Significance President Donald Trump on February 19 signed a directive ordering the Pentagon to draw up legislation establishing a Space Force as the sixth branch of the US military, alongside the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Impacts A separation of air and space budgets could positively affect future military space modernisation and development programmes. Creation of the Space Force could ultimately move the United States closer towards openly putting weapons in space. If China and Russia perceive it this way, it creates the risk of an arms race in space.


Headline EGYPT: US military aid will not be cut -- for now


1993 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Samuel Fitch

The US military presence in Latin America has declined significantly over the last two decades, particularly in the major countries of the region. Despite the determined efforts of the Reagan administration to reverse that trend, with few exceptions the present ability of the United States to influence the Latin American militaries is far removed from the dominant role it played in the 1950s and 1960s. Given the pressures in Washington for further cuts in military aid programs, the trend toward declining US influence and increasingly divergent US-Latin American military interests is likely to continue in the 1990s. Although the United States will continue to be a major force in the region, the primary instruments of US influence are likely to be economic, rather than military-to-military relations.


Significance Liu was speaking to a Philippines delegation, an illustration of the Duterte administration's initial efforts to forge a new foreign policy and to repair ties with China. Impacts The Philippine communist insurgents, with whom Duterte is negotiating, will push for the US alliance to be cancelled. Duterte's new foreign policy allied with his reaching out to the communists may alienate the Philippine armed forces. Intra-ASEAN pressure to adopt a stronger common position on the South China Sea will reduce. Future US military aid to the Philippines could be at risk. Knowing that Manila cannot respond militarily and thus seeks warmer ties, Beijing may be bullish in Philippine waters.


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