Iran nuclear deal will reshape Israeli security agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Community ◽  
Regional Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Us Military ◽  
International Recognition ◽  
International Sanctions

Subject Israel's policy to post-agreement Iran. Significance With the international community on the verge of signing a deal with Iran that would end the decade-long dispute over its nuclear programme, Israel is preparing to deal with the consequences. The deal would bolster Israel's security by preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear weaponised state. However, it is also likely to empower Iran, by leading to the unraveling of the international sanctions regime, and giving Iran de facto international recognition as a regional power. Impacts Israel's Republican allies in US Congress will make it extremely hard for Obama to lift congressional bilateral sanctions. However, neither Congress nor Israel have the power to block a deal from going ahead. Israel will use the deal to secure 'compensation' in the form of additional US military aid. A deal would allow the army to transfer resources to confronting asymmetric campaigns against Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel will strengthen its ties with Sunni states that also oppose Iran.

Israeli coalition government will stay strong

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
Social Affairs

Subject Israeli domestic politics update. Significance Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's cabinet unanimously approved a bi-annual state budget for 2017 and 2018 on August 12. While the budget reflects a policy of greater spending on social affairs and lower taxes, its main importance is political. Once approved by the Knesset in November, the budget will pave the way for Netanyahu to remain prime minister until the next elections, at present scheduled for early 2019. Impacts In his fourth term, with more than ten years as prime minister, Netanyahu faces no major threats to his leadership. No progress is expected in the Israeli-Palestinian process in the short-to-medium term. Israel will seek to secure a ten-year deal on US military aid before end-2016.

US military aid to Egypt will not be cut -- for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military

Headline EGYPT: US military aid will not be cut -- for now

New Philippines foreign policy may be destabilising

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
The Us ◽  
Common Position

Significance Liu was speaking to a Philippines delegation, an illustration of the Duterte administration's initial efforts to forge a new foreign policy and to repair ties with China. Impacts The Philippine communist insurgents, with whom Duterte is negotiating, will push for the US alliance to be cancelled. Duterte's new foreign policy allied with his reaching out to the communists may alienate the Philippine armed forces. Intra-ASEAN pressure to adopt a stronger common position on the South China Sea will reduce. Future US military aid to the Philippines could be at risk. Knowing that Manila cannot respond militarily and thus seeks warmer ties, Beijing may be bullish in Philippine waters.

China will step up pressure on Taiwan on all sides

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
International Community ◽  
Diplomatic Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Coercive Measures ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Significant Potential ◽  
The Us ◽  
Modus Vivendi ◽  
Diplomatic Recognition

Subject China-Taiwan relations. Significance Burkina Faso on May 24 withdrew diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, the latest result of a raft of measures Beijing has taken this year to isolate Taiwan from the international community and convince Taiwan’s current independence-leaning government that there are significant potential costs for failing to find a modus vivendi with Beijing. The coercive measures included military intimidation, diplomatic pressure and a sharp escalation in pressure on international companies to hew to China’s preferences when referring to Taiwan. Impacts Burkina Faso is likely to establish diplomatic relations with China and receive economic rewards. Chinese coercion will prompt gestures of support for Taiwan in the US Congress, where anti-China sentiment runs high. Foreign airlines and other firms will adopt approaches that go some way to pleasing Beijing, some of them pre-emptively.

Ukraine wins US military aid but nothing on energy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military

Headline UKRAINE/UNITED STATES: Kyiv secures only military aid

Philippines tilts towards Russia and China carry risk

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Development Plans

Significance This is part of his desire for an 'independent' foreign policy, which includes Manila distancing itself from Washington and seeking closer economic and military ties with China and Russia. Impacts Philippine purchases of Chinese and Russian arms will probably grow. Future US military aid to the Philippines may be curtailed or cancelled. China will provide more financing support for the Duterte administration's infrastructure development plans. Closer ties with Beijing and Moscow may reduce Manila's interest in joining the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership. The mid-November APEC Summit in Peru provides further opportunity for Duterte to meet Russian and Chinese leaders.

US military aid to Africa will not grow significantly

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Foreign Operations ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Military Engagement ◽  
Security Affairs

Significance The trip to Washington by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari last month has raised questions about whether the United States plans to step up its military support to assist with counterinsurgency against Boko Haram. However, speculation on whether the United States may soften its stance on military support to Nigeria belies the broader structural obstacles that limit US military engagement to Africa. Impacts The United States prefers for other actors to lead on African security crises, such as France in Mali or the African Union in Somalia. African security affairs are highly unlikely to feature in US presidential candidates' speeches, nor national security manifestos. US military activities also remain constrained by African governments' unwillingness to host foreign operations.

Myanmar speech will not mollify Suu Kyi's critics

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
International Community ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Funding ◽  
International Sanctions ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance This follows intense criticism from the international community, which argues that she has done little to address the crisis or alleged abuses by Myanmar’s military, the Tatmadaw, against the Rohingya. Impacts The military will not be offended by yesterday’s speech. Fresh international sanctions on Myanmar are unlikely, but the government will face more criticism in global fora. The government will seek international funding aid to develop Rakhine infrastructure and social services. Islamic State could use the Rohingya situation to increase recruitment and terrorist activities in Myanmar.

US Congress will challenge deterrence strategy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Maximum Pressure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Capability ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Significance Trump and his immediate predecessors have made extensive use of powers granted in the wake of the 9/11 attacks to deploy armed force widely across the Middle East and North Africa. The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives seeks to curtail this. For the administration, this is a direct challenge to its ability to rebuild deterrence, in an age of rising inter-state competition, through greater military capability and convincing rivals that it can and will be used. Impacts Trump will campaign electorally on rebuilding the US military and deterrence capability. The administration will continue ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran but avoid new highly provocative steps. Trump will seek to reinvigorate North Korea talks and push his Middle East peace deal, to boost re-election prospects. Congress, especially Democrats, will try to limit Trump’s foreign policy powers, unsuccessfully, without veto-proof majorities. Unless and until Trump is re-elected, US allies and adversaries will be less likely to bow to administration policy pressure.

Israel-US military aid deal may help Gulf jet approval

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military

Headline ISRAEL/US: Military aid package may clear way for Gulf

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