Israeli coalition government will stay strong

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Fourth Term ◽  
Social Affairs

Subject Israeli domestic politics update. Significance Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's cabinet unanimously approved a bi-annual state budget for 2017 and 2018 on August 12. While the budget reflects a policy of greater spending on social affairs and lower taxes, its main importance is political. Once approved by the Knesset in November, the budget will pave the way for Netanyahu to remain prime minister until the next elections, at present scheduled for early 2019. Impacts In his fourth term, with more than ten years as prime minister, Netanyahu faces no major threats to his leadership. No progress is expected in the Israeli-Palestinian process in the short-to-medium term. Israel will seek to secure a ten-year deal on US military aid before end-2016.

Rise of Shia militias will reshape Iraqi politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Guard ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Subject The rise of Iraq's Shia militias. Significance Shia militias, known as Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs), are the most capable offensive forces at the federal government's disposal in its fight against Islamic State group (ISG). Yet Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's cabinet only exercises limited control over these forces, many of which receive backing from Iran. While Iraq's battle against ISG is progressing steadily, the emergence of these powerful Shia militias could represent a larger medium-term challenge to state stability. Impacts Shia militias will probably be less effective in Sunni-only areas. Iraq boasts insufficient offensive forces to attack Mosul in the first half of 2015. The National Guard initiative will take months to be ratified in parliament. Politics in the oil-rich south will be complicated by a power struggle between Shia politicians and militia leaders.

Morocco's parliamentary poll will be tight contest

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Education System ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Focus Attention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Lower House ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time

Significance The election for the House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament, will be the second since the constitution was revised in 2011. This specified that the leader of the party winning the largest number of seats should be given the first opportunity to form a government. The revision led to the moderate Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party (PJD), leading the government for the first time after its victory in the November 2011 poll. Impacts The election will focus attention on contentious reforms to pensions, subsidies and the education system. The months ahead will be dominated by speculation about party alliances and the likely shape of a future coalition government. The palace seems ready to accept a second term for Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane, but is also keen to see PAM within government.

Prospects for Japan in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
House Election

Subject Prospects for Japan in 2016. Significance The upper house election due in July will be the focus of domestic politics in the first half of 2016. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced 'three new arrows' of Abenomics, but the economy has flipped back into recession.

NATO Baltic exercises will prompt risky behaviour

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Risky Behaviour ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
The Baltic

Significance BALTOPS 16 will be the largest NATO maritime exercise in the Baltic Sea in recent years. The exercise is also held mere weeks before NATO's July 8-9 summit in Warsaw, and therefore serves as a tangible prelude to the alliance's intent to address renewed Russian security challenges in the region. Impacts Improvements in Western missile defence systems will make it more difficult politically to undergo arms control cooperation with Moscow. Poland's military modernisation programme will boost its ability to be a security partner of the Baltic states. Washington is unlikely to approve a permanent US military presence in the Baltic states in the near-to-medium term.

Iran nuclear deal will reshape Israeli security agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Community ◽  
Regional Power ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Us Military ◽  
International Recognition ◽  
International Sanctions

Subject Israel's policy to post-agreement Iran. Significance With the international community on the verge of signing a deal with Iran that would end the decade-long dispute over its nuclear programme, Israel is preparing to deal with the consequences. The deal would bolster Israel's security by preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear weaponised state. However, it is also likely to empower Iran, by leading to the unraveling of the international sanctions regime, and giving Iran de facto international recognition as a regional power. Impacts Israel's Republican allies in US Congress will make it extremely hard for Obama to lift congressional bilateral sanctions. However, neither Congress nor Israel have the power to block a deal from going ahead. Israel will use the deal to secure 'compensation' in the form of additional US military aid. A deal would allow the army to transfer resources to confronting asymmetric campaigns against Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel will strengthen its ties with Sunni states that also oppose Iran.

Belize’s Barrow looks set for re-election in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central America ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Territorial Dispute ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transit Country ◽  
Fourth Term

Subject Belize election outlook. Significance Belize will hold national elections this year, with Prime Minister Dean Barrow set to run for a fourth term in office. The opposition will seek to attack him on issues of crime, migration and weak economic growth. However, his ruling United Democratic Party (UDP) is popular, especially following its victorious campaign in a May 2019 referendum on the country’s territorial dispute with Guatemala. Impacts Increased police funding should bring more officers onto the force in 2020. Migration trends across Central America will impact Belize, as both a destination and transit country. Taiwan will look to increase funding for Belize following the loss of diplomatic support from several other countries in the region.

Pakistan military will repel threats to its authority

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Senior Officers ◽  
The Military

Subject The Pakistan military's influence on domestic politics. Significance Parliament last month passed legislation extending the tenure of the current chief of army staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, for another three years. This followed a November ruling by the Supreme Court striking down an extension granted by Prime Minister Imran Khan's government. While Pakistan struggles to ease its economic woes and secure diplomatic support for its position on Kashmir, over which it disputes sovereignty with India, the politically powerful military is orchestrating efforts to mediate peace in Afghanistan and consolidate relations with key partners. Impacts The military will ensure that Khan remains in power, as it regards him as a suitably acquiescent prime minister. Most political parties will toe the military's line. Bajwa's likely successor as army chief, Faiz Hameed, may lack the charisma to command the same loyalty from senior officers.

US military aid to Egypt will not be cut -- for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military

Headline EGYPT: US military aid will not be cut -- for now

New Philippines foreign policy may be destabilising

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
South China Sea ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
The Us ◽  
Common Position

Significance Liu was speaking to a Philippines delegation, an illustration of the Duterte administration's initial efforts to forge a new foreign policy and to repair ties with China. Impacts The Philippine communist insurgents, with whom Duterte is negotiating, will push for the US alliance to be cancelled. Duterte's new foreign policy allied with his reaching out to the communists may alienate the Philippine armed forces. Intra-ASEAN pressure to adopt a stronger common position on the South China Sea will reduce. Future US military aid to the Philippines could be at risk. Knowing that Manila cannot respond militarily and thus seeks warmer ties, Beijing may be bullish in Philippine waters.

Hezbollah’s Lebanon role may block Saudi military aid

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Electoral Law

Significance These reports follow the visit of the new Lebanese president, Michel Aoun, who made the first foreign trip of his presidency to Saudi Arabia and Qatar on January 9-11. Saudi-Lebanese relations, formerly close, have been frozen since Riyadh cancelled 3 billion dollars of military aid in February 2016. Impacts Lebanon’s economy could see a significant upturn in the coming months as a result of the opening. Oger, the troubled company of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, could regain Saudi government backing. If Saudi assistance is not renewed, Iran could begin to provide military support for the Lebanese army. Difficulties agreeing a new electoral law are likely to cause a postponement of parliamentary polls.

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