New Philippines foreign policy may be destabilising

Significance Liu was speaking to a Philippines delegation, an illustration of the Duterte administration's initial efforts to forge a new foreign policy and to repair ties with China. Impacts The Philippine communist insurgents, with whom Duterte is negotiating, will push for the US alliance to be cancelled. Duterte's new foreign policy allied with his reaching out to the communists may alienate the Philippine armed forces. Intra-ASEAN pressure to adopt a stronger common position on the South China Sea will reduce. Future US military aid to the Philippines could be at risk. Knowing that Manila cannot respond militarily and thus seeks warmer ties, Beijing may be bullish in Philippine waters.

Significance This is part of his desire for an 'independent' foreign policy, which includes Manila distancing itself from Washington and seeking closer economic and military ties with China and Russia. Impacts Philippine purchases of Chinese and Russian arms will probably grow. Future US military aid to the Philippines may be curtailed or cancelled. China will provide more financing support for the Duterte administration's infrastructure development plans. Closer ties with Beijing and Moscow may reduce Manila's interest in joining the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership. The mid-November APEC Summit in Peru provides further opportunity for Duterte to meet Russian and Chinese leaders.


2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 25-27

Purpose This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings The concept of “VUCA” – a commercial climate that has volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity – has its roots in the US military, where understanding such an environment helped with planning. For an ordered, regimented organization such as the armed forces, it was tempting to assume logic and form governed external society as well; however, this has rarely been the case in military deployment. Practical implications The paper provides strategic insights and practical thinking that have influenced some of the world’s leading organizations. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.


Author(s):  
Jude Woodward

This chapter discusses the South China Sea island disputes that have become the frontline in the US’s growing confrontation with China in Asia and the justification for a reinforced US military presence in the region. It particularly examines the role of the Philippines. While its neighbours have tried to soothe relations with China and keep on friendly terms with the US, the Philippines has placed itself at the head of a confrontation with China in the South China Sea. Its interventions since 2010, particularly its decision to refer the issues to the Arbitration court at the Hague have played a key role in turning the Sea into a global security hotspot. The chapter argues that it is primarily down to the Philippines that the US has been able to reestablish its presence and become a key actor in the South China Sea, justifying a stepped up US navy presence.


Significance Trump and his immediate predecessors have made extensive use of powers granted in the wake of the 9/11 attacks to deploy armed force widely across the Middle East and North Africa. The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives seeks to curtail this. For the administration, this is a direct challenge to its ability to rebuild deterrence, in an age of rising inter-state competition, through greater military capability and convincing rivals that it can and will be used. Impacts Trump will campaign electorally on rebuilding the US military and deterrence capability. The administration will continue ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran but avoid new highly provocative steps. Trump will seek to reinvigorate North Korea talks and push his Middle East peace deal, to boost re-election prospects. Congress, especially Democrats, will try to limit Trump’s foreign policy powers, unsuccessfully, without veto-proof majorities. Unless and until Trump is re-elected, US allies and adversaries will be less likely to bow to administration policy pressure.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elaine Tolentino ◽  
Myungsik Ham

This paper aims to analyze the asymmetric dilemma facing the Philippines and China in the South China Sea tensions. Among American East Asian allies, the Philippines seems to stand on the frontline between two rival powers, the United States and China. Since the US declared its Pivot to Asia policy, the Philippines’ foreign policy towards China has become assertive and sometimes appears reckless with some military adventures against Chinese maritime patrols and naval ships, which also further forced China to take a tougher foreign policy against the Philippines. Considering the distinctive asymmetric indicators between China and the Philippines based on military forces, economic capacity, territorial size, and population, the aggressive policy behaviors that the Philippines and China have been displaying against each other cast an inquiry on what drives the two countries into head-to-head collision. While China as the larger power vis-à-vis the Philippines as the smaller power in the relationship has aimed for control and domination of their disputed territory, the Philippines’ drastic defiance has also led to China’s irritation and possible frustration. Furthermore, the US’ renewed attention to Asia has caused shifts of asymmetric bilateral dilemma to triangular entanglement between the US–China–Philippines. It is vital therefore to pay attention to the asymmetric interaction of states and their varying views in order to find possible solutions to the SCS tensions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 161-191
Author(s):  
Robert Joseph Medillo

Abstract Why and how did the Philippine Congress intervene in the policies of Arroyo (hedging), Aquino III (balancing), and Duterte (appeasement) on the South China Sea disputes? In particular, why and how did the Philippine Congress challenge each president’s attempt to forge either cooperation or confrontation towards China? Guided by the domestic politics – foreign policy nexus, this article explores the dynamic role of the Philippine Congress in the country’s foreign policy process. It combines comparative case-study and content analysis methods to examine relevant congressional records, government documents, public speeches, and news reports. This article finds that the impetus behind Congress’ intervention was to seek accountability, legitimacy, and transparency via registering a bill or passing a law, filing legislative resolutions, holding congressional hearings, calling for impeachment proceedings, delivering privilege speeches, and issuing press releases. This article offers its empirical and theoretical contributions to broaden current understanding of the relationship between domestic politics and foreign policy.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-81
Author(s):  
Christian Villanueva

Conflicts such as Nagorno-Karabakh, the Donbas, Libya, Syria and Yemen have shown that even in such different scenarios, the diffusion of the key advances that were at the heart of the Revolution in Military Affairs is a fact. Moreover, most of these advances are so well established that they are now in daily use not only by many states, but also by their proxies and even by transnational terrorist and criminal groups. This phenomenon is intimately associated with the erosion of US military superiority, a country that is seeing how the People's Republic of China or the Russian Federation, but also North Korea or Iran, are capable of challenging the former superpower. In this scenario, aware of the need to compensate for the advances made by the other players, the US has launched a series of initiatives, such as the Third Offset Strategy, aimed at achieving new technological and arms developments that could lead to a new Revolution in Military Affairs or, perhaps, a full-fledged Military Revolution. In this complex context, in which conflicts fought with inherited means will converge with new weapons, systems and platforms and with the entry into service of developments that we cannot yet imagine, the Spanish defence industry will have to struggle to survive, knowing that its main customer - the Spanish Ministry of Defence - is in a very delicate situation in terms of facing this new stage.


Author(s):  
Chris Arney ◽  
Zachary Silvis ◽  
Matthew Thielen ◽  
Jeff Yao

The United States armed forces could be considered the world’s most powerful military force. However, in modern conflicts, techniques of asymmetric warfare (terrorism) wreak havoc on the inflexible, regardless of technological or numerical advantage. In order to be more effective, the US military must improve its counter-terrorism (CT) capabilities and flexibility. In this light, the authors model the terrorism-counter-terrorism (T-CT) struggle with a detailed and complex mathematical model and analyze the model’s components of leadership, promotion, recruitment, resources, operational techniques, cooperation, logistics, security, intelligence, science, and psychology in the T-CT struggle, with the goal of informing today’s decision makers of the options available in counter-terrorism strategy.


2006 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lt. Col. Mark Stanovich, USMCR

The last two decades have seen technological innovations that have revolutionized the collection and transfer of information, permitting access to and dissemination of massive amounts of data with unprecedented speed and efficiency. These innovations have been incorporated into virtually every aspect of modern society, from personal communications, to commercial and business processes, to governmental function and military operations. The concept of network-centric warfare (NCW) grew out of these new capabilities and has been a prominent topic in strategic and operational discussions in the US military since the late 1990s.In recent years, the concepts behind NCW have been increasingly applied to emergency response, particularly as responders prepare for an increasingly complex threat spectrum in a post-9/11 world. As emergency responders adopt the technological innovations and organizational concepts that enable network-centric operations, attention should be paid to the lessons learned by the US armed forces in the application of the network-centric approach to war-fighting. Emergency operations centers (EOCs), incident command centers (ICCs), and field personnel will require extensive training and experimentation to sort out the impact of this new technology. They must develop protocols and procedures to leverage maximum advantage, while avoiding the undesirable and damaging effects of that technology improperly applied. Because most emergency response organizations lack the vast training resources of the US military, they must be innovative and adaptable in taking advantage of every opportunity to train their personnel in the assimilation of this new technology.


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