Misusing historical analogies limits US policy options

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Options ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Decision To Leave ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Future

Significance The Vietnam analogy implies that President Joe Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan will have deeply negative consequences for the United States. However, Afghanistan is not Vietnam and the Biden withdrawal needs to be considered within the wider context of his administration’s review of US commitments abroad. Impacts The White House will be pressured to clarify the future of other US military commitments, particularly in Iraq. Biden will seek to reassure allies, particularly those in NATO, that his commitment to multilateralism will not diminish. Biden may seek an opportunity for a military show of force, possibly in the Middle East, to refute accusations of weakness.

AIIB shows increased US-China institutional rivalry

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Regional Institutions ◽  
Institutional Competition

Significance London's actions drew a harsh, if unofficial, reaction from the White House. It underscores the growing rivalry between the United States and China over the changing architecture of global and regional institutions. Impacts Institutional competition will not spill over much into the security field, where China's neighbours seek to balance it. Increased European involvement in South-east Asia will accelerate movement towards an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement. Increased international prestige could help Chinese President Xi Jinping's domestic clout.

Brazil government coalition risks unraveling

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Coalition ◽  
The Future ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
Government Coalition ◽  
Economic Outlook

Significance On her return from the United States and Russia, President Dilma Rousseff's problems have not changed; indeed, most worsened during her absence. Brazil's economic outlook is bleaker, the governing political coalition weaker and the scope of the corruption scandal has widened. Impacts Congress will push back more strongly against spending cuts as the government's situation weakens. The PMDB as a whole is unlikely to follow Cunha's lead, at least in the short term. Lula's fate will have major longer-term implications for the future of the PT.

US TPP implementation faces major hurdles in Congress

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade Agreements ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Key Industry

Significance The Obama administration faces an uphill fight in Congress to secure enough votes for TPP ratification, given Democratic suspicions of free trade agreements, Republican animus for the White House and the frustrations of key industry groups in the United States. The United States can in effect veto the TPP's international implementation, while the White House's 'Asia pivot' policy relies partly on firmer trade ties with East and South-east Asia. Impacts The battle over TPP will likely divert political capital and US government resources from the TTIP negotiations. China may benefit diplomatically in the Asia-Pacific if the United States blocks TPP from coming into force. The trade debate may spill over to greater US legislative attention on currency manipulation issues ahead of 2017.

USMCA brings Mexico broad continuity, with some risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Export Sector ◽  
The One ◽  
United States Mexico

Subject The new USMCA. Significance Mexico, Canada and the United States agreed on September 30 to a new trilateral free trade agreement, to replace NAFTA. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) presents a mixed scenario for Mexico’s economy. On the one hand, Mexican officials and businesses are relieved that the uncertainty surrounding the negotiations has been resolved. On the other, the agreement imposes new rules in the auto sector, which could have negative consequences for Mexico’s most important manufacturing industry. Impacts New auto industry rules could raise prices and disrupt supply chains in Mexico’s key export sector. Despite the USMCA’s provisions for higher wages, it will in practice do little to raise them in Mexico. Mexico remains vulnerable to the Trump administration’s protectionist whims.

Israel will strengthen its ties with the Gulf

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Public Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Opportunities ◽  
The Past ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Middle East Policy

Significance In October, Netanyahu travelled to Oman -- the first visit there by an Israeli premier in decades. In the past few years, relations between Israel and most of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states have warmed, but this has not been publicised. More recently, GCC states have become less concerned whether their relations with Israel become public knowledge. Meanwhile, the United States is encouraging rapprochement as one of the anchors of its Middle East policy. Impacts Netanyahu may soon visit Bahrain, the first public visit by an Israeli leader to the country. Relations with Qatar will follow a separate track to other Gulf states. A political opening would create economic opportunities.

Infrastructure investments face obstacles in Peru

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Government ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Public Private Partnerships ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
The Government

Subject Public-private partnerships. Significance Amid attempts to secure new investment from Canada and the United States, the government is wrestling with political difficulties surrounding the future of public-private partnerships (PPPs). These have been magnified in recent months by the bad publicity arising from the Odebrecht bribery scandals. Establishing a politically acceptable balance between attracting investors and ensuring the transparency of public works contracts is proving increasingly important. Impacts The problem of corruption in sub-national government will cloud the operations of PPPs. There will be a need for stronger and more independent regulation of PPP projects. The localised reach of the Works for Taxes programme will limit its scope in dealing with wider objectives.

Erdogan will not alter US ties to Kurds

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Training And Support

Subject The Erdogan-Trump meeting on May 16. Significance Turkey yesterday blamed US officials for "security lapses" during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Washington last week, which turned into a media disaster when the Turkish president’s guards beat up demonstrators in front of the TV cameras, with Erdogan looking on. The visit to meet President Donald Trump failed to produce any breakthrough on the issues dividing them, despite a friendly meeting at the White House. Although Trump is outwardly much more sympathetic to Erdogan than his predecessor was, the two countries are still far apart on Syria, where the United States remains the protector and ally of the Syrian Kurds. Impacts Turkey will continue to fortify the strip of land it occupies in northern Syria. It will step up training and support for the Sunni Arab rebel Free Syrian Army. Erdogan will respond to his increased international isolation by further clampdowns on remaining critics in Turkey.

India-Pakistan tensions will hit US military strategy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
The United States ◽  
Military Strategy ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Support Fund

Subject Strategic entanglement of India, Pakistan and the United States. Significance Washington is slashing Coalition Support Fund (CSF) and Foreign Military Financing (FMF) payments to Islamabad, in the belief that Pakistan harbours the very militants that the United States is fighting in Afghanistan. Washington envisions deeper military cooperation overall with Delhi, which accuses Pakistan of sponsoring militants who act against India. Islamabad is being driven closer to Washington’s rival Beijing. Impacts Pakistan will step up efforts to complete an anti-militant fence on the disputed border with Afghanistan. India is likely to resist any calls from the United States to begin joint patrols in the Indian Ocean. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will face security risks from Islamist militants and Baloch separatists.

Hypersonic arms alter US-Russian threat perceptions

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ballistic Missile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Threat Perceptions ◽  
Ballistic Missiles ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles ◽  
Global Reach

Subject Hypersonic missiles and their implications. Significance Russia and China claim to have hypersonic weapons with near-global reach, capable of delivering nuclear warheads with certainty and overcoming US anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defences designed to intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The implication is that both countries are ahead of the United States in the technology race. Impacts Hypersonic technology poses a new challenge just as the future of the New START arms treaty is due for renewal in 2021. While the Kremlin highlights future hypersonic weapons, broader procurement of new defence systems is lagging. US and Chinese designers are investigating potentially cheaper methods of accelerating artillery shells to hypersonic velocities.

US Space Force will start small and then evolve

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Force ◽  
Marine Corps ◽  
The United States ◽  
Coast Guard ◽  
Arms Race ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us

Subject Creation of the US Space Force. Significance President Donald Trump on February 19 signed a directive ordering the Pentagon to draw up legislation establishing a Space Force as the sixth branch of the US military, alongside the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps and Coast Guard. Impacts A separation of air and space budgets could positively affect future military space modernisation and development programmes. Creation of the Space Force could ultimately move the United States closer towards openly putting weapons in space. If China and Russia perceive it this way, it creates the risk of an arms race in space.

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