German deal brings shifts in policy orientation

Guatemala plans bold new security strategy for 2017

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db217419 ◽

2017 ◽

Keyword(s):

Violent Crime ◽

Security Policy ◽

Crime Rates ◽

Police Force ◽

Security Strategy ◽

Content Type ◽

Strategy Shift ◽

Border Dispute ◽

Policy Shift ◽

The Military

Subject Security strategy shift. Significance On January 5, President Jimmy Morales announced plans to withdraw the military from civilian security duties by the end of 2017. The security policy shift comes amid indications that crime rates are beginning to fall. However, a reduction of the military’s presence on the streets will see the bulk of security duties fall upon the police force, which continues to struggle with allegations of corruption and may be ill prepared for the task ahead. Impacts The government’s apparent confidence in declining crime rates will be well received by potential investors. Should it be successful, the move may encourage similar policies in neighbouring countries that struggle with violent crime. The military’s renewed focus on conventional duties may be a warning to Belize in the countries’ border dispute.

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PiS policy shift puts Polish markets under strain

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db208166 ◽

2016 ◽

Keyword(s):

Financial Markets ◽

Foreign Currency ◽

Monetary Policies ◽

Government Bonds ◽

Content Type ◽

Local Currency ◽

Policy Shift ◽

Law And Justice ◽

Rating Downgrades ◽

High Share

Significance However, the unexpected downgrade of Poland by Standard & Poor's (S&P) on January 15 has focused attention on the financial and economic policy stance of the Law and Justice (PiS) government, in particular, the party's plans for a Hungarian-style forced conversion of foreign currency (FX)-denominated mortgages in local currency contracts. Poland's equity markets have fallen sharply, although the zloty and local government bonds are proving more resilient, despite coming under increasing pressure. Impacts The threat is looming over Poland of further rating downgrades if the credibility of its fiscal and monetary policies is undermined. Emerging Europe's high share of FX-denominated debt, particularly in the south-east, might be a source of financial vulnerability. Non-resident investors are still purchasing Poland's domestic bonds and may even be attracted by the recent rise in yields. CEE's negligible trade linkages with China and favourable status as an oil importer put its financial markets among the most resilient EMs.

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Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db244743 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Fiscal Policy ◽

Emerging Markets ◽

Trade Policy ◽

Emerging Economies ◽

World Trade ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Content Type ◽

Us Trade Policy ◽

Policy Shift

Subject Prospects for emerging economies to end-2019. Significance US trade policy is hardening and while the direction remains uncertain, a sustained softening seems unlikely. Monetary policy is shifting towards easing in many emerging markets (EMs) and some are expanding fiscal policy. However, the policy shift will not compensate for weaker world trade and EM GDP growth is expected to slow from 4.5% last year, already a three-year low, to closer to the 4.3% seen in 2015 or even weaker.

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Russia will lag on climate action despite policy shift

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db249593 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Policy ◽

The Arctic ◽

High Tech ◽

Russian Government ◽

Content Type ◽

Change Policy ◽

Climate Action ◽

Policy Shift ◽

International Climate

Subject Climate change policy views in Russia. Significance After years of delay, the Russian government has acceded to the Paris Agreement to limit global warming. This is a positive step, although the decision is more symbolism than substance. Moscow's obligations under the agreement are very limited and powerful domestic interests are obstructing implementation of a more active climate policy. Impacts Due to warming in the Arctic, Russia plans to increase cargo traffic along its Arctic maritime route to 80 million tonnes per year by 2024. As Russia promotes itself as an international climate leader, state-owned Rusnano is promoting high-tech solutions to emissions reductions. Objections to radical policy change will not be couched in the language of climate change denial.

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Maduro retrenches as Guaido struggles in Venezuela

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db249554 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Private Investment ◽

Content Type ◽

National Assembly ◽

Policy Shift ◽

The Right

Subject Political and economic retrenchment. Significance As opposition ‘interim president’ Juan Guaido faces a fretful run into his January 5 re-election as National Assembly president, incumbent President Nicolas Maduro is overseeing an informal liberalisation of the economy and exploring private investment and bond repayment options. Impacts In coming weeks Guaido’s supporters will lobby National Assembly members to ensure he is re-elected president of the Assembly. Maduro will focus on getting the right team and policy message together for his New Year address and potential period of policy shift. Negotiations look like the only serious way ahead for the opposition as National Assembly elections approach.

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