Guatemala plans bold new security strategy for 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Police Force ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strategy Shift ◽  
Border Dispute ◽  
Policy Shift ◽  
The Military

Subject Security strategy shift. Significance On January 5, President Jimmy Morales announced plans to withdraw the military from civilian security duties by the end of 2017. The security policy shift comes amid indications that crime rates are beginning to fall. However, a reduction of the military’s presence on the streets will see the bulk of security duties fall upon the police force, which continues to struggle with allegations of corruption and may be ill prepared for the task ahead. Impacts The government’s apparent confidence in declining crime rates will be well received by potential investors. Should it be successful, the move may encourage similar policies in neighbouring countries that struggle with violent crime. The military’s renewed focus on conventional duties may be a warning to Belize in the countries’ border dispute.

Club convergence of crime rates in the United States of America

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kolawole Ogundari
Keyword(s):  
Violent Crime ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Community Level ◽  
Club Convergence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Convergence Club ◽  
Over Time

Purpose The cyclical behavior of US crime rates reflects the dynamics of crime in the country. This paper aims to investigate the US's club convergence of crime rates to provide insights into whether the crime rates increased or decreased over time. The paper also analyzes the factors influencing the probability of states converging to a particular convergence club of crime. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on balanced panel data from all 50 states and the district of Columbia on violent and property crime rates covering 1976–2019. This yields a cross-state panel of 2,244 observations with 55 time periods and 51 groups. In addition, the author used a club clustering procedure to investigate the convergence hypothesis in the study. Findings The empirical results support population convergence of violent crime rates. However, the evidence that supports population convergence of property crime rates in the study is not found. Further analysis using the club clustering procedure shows that property crime rates converge into three clubs. The existence of club convergence in property crime rates means that the variation in the property crime rates tends to narrow among the states within each of the clubs identified in the study. Analysis based on an ordered probit model identifies economic, geographic and human capital factors that significantly drive the state's convergence club membership. Practical implications The central policy insight from these results is that crime rates grow slowly over time, as evident by the convergence of violent crime and club convergence of property crime in the study. Moreover, the existence of club convergence of property crime is an indication that policies to mitigate property crime might need to target states within each club. This includes the efforts to use state rather than national crime-fighting policies. Social implications As crimes are committed at the local level, this study's primary limitation is the lack of community-level data on crime and other factors considered. Analysis based on community-level data might provide a better representation of crime dynamics. However, the author hopes to consider this as less aggregated data are available to use in future research. Originality/value The paper provides new insights into the convergence of crime rates using the club convergence procedure in the USA. This is considered an improvement to the methods used in the previous studies.

The legacy of military dictatorship: Explaining violent crime in democracies

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 404-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Frantz
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Military Rule ◽  
Military Dictatorship ◽  
Homicide Rates ◽  
The Military ◽  
Cross National

Violent crime rates have increased dramatically in many parts of the world in recent decades, with homicides now outpacing deaths due to interstate or civil wars. Considerable variations exist across democracies in their violent crime rates, however: different autocratic experiences help explain why this is the case. Democracies emerging from military rule have higher homicide rates because they typically inherit militarized police forces. This creates a dilemma after democratization: allowing the military to remain in the police leads to law enforcement personnel trained in defense rather than policing, but extricating it marginalizes individuals trained in the use of violence. The results of cross-national statistical tests are shown to be consistent with this argument.

Pakistan counterinsurgency plan promises mixed results

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Law Enforcement Agencies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Provincial Capital ◽  
Civilian Authority ◽  
The Military

Significance Claiming the lives of at least 21 people, this was the deadliest attack since the TTP siege on an army school in the provincial capital of Peshawar in mid-December 2014. Impacts The counterinsurgency campaign will allow the military to override and erode civilian authority. Islamabad's compliance with the military's security policy boosts the longevity of Nawaz Sharif's government. The bolstering of civilian law enforcement agencies is necessary, but unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Alliances will make or break new Costa Rica president

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crime Rates ◽  
Gay Marriage ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Same Sex Marriage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Margin ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Public Concerns

Significance His win followed a tight campaign against evangelical Christian Fabricio Alvarado Munoz (no relation), who had leapt ahead in the polls after a controversial ruling on gay marriage in February. Ultimately, the consolidation of centre-left support behind Alvarado Quesada produced an unexpectedly large margin of victory. Impacts Alvarado Quesada’s victory will reassure the business community as he has pledged to maintain policy continuity. Tax regime continuity will limit the government’s ability to pass far-reaching fiscal reform. A bold new security strategy will be necessary to address public concerns regarding crime rates. The election result is a win for supporters of same-sex marriage, but legalisation will remain controversial.

Security will drive enhanced Guatemala-Belize links

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relationship ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Border Dispute ◽  
Border Areas

Subject The Guatemala-Belize bilateral relationship. Significance On December 17, the governments of Guatemala and Belize signed 13 agreements to boost economic and security cooperation. Common challenges, chiefly violent crime and joint economic development, are driving closer cooperation, while a boundary dispute that has soured bilateral relations for decades remains unresolved. Impacts The border dispute will remain encapsulated in order to allow a common approach to economic development in border areas. Mobility of workers and students between the two countries will increase. Both countries will also work towards regional initiatives regarding the combating of organised crime.

Germany will drive greater EU defence cooperation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Policy ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
White Paper ◽  
Political Resistance ◽  
International Peace ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Challenge ◽  
Defence Cooperation

Significance This followed the approval of a white paper on Germany's security policy and the future of its armed forces on July 13. The fundamental suggestion of the white paper -- which sits atop the hierarchy of security strategy documents and drives medium-to-long-term strategy -- is that Berlin should take on greater responsibility for international peace and security and demonstrate leadership within the limits of its capabilities. Impacts Germany is considering opening its armed forces to non-German EU citizens and has abandoned a fixed upper limit of active forces. Closer coordination and joint exercises between the armed forces and police are likely, despite political resistance. The white paper commits Germany to a policy of deterrence and dialogue vis-a-vis Russia, with Moscow described as a security challenge.

Prospects for Afghan peace talks are dwindling

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Confidence ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Open Spaces ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
The North ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The attack was an attempt to undermine the nine month old national unity government headed by President Ashraf Ghani, who is already losing public confidence since the cabinet is still incomplete and the country still lacks a viable security plan. Meanwhile, Taliban gains in the north have prompted the government to arm local militias to bolster its security forces. According to UN figures, the insurgency has left 974 dead and 1,963 injured in the first four months of 2015 -- a 16% rise on 2014. Impacts Growing public discontent could open spaces for competing leaders and groups opposed to the government, threatening civil unrest. Absent a viable security strategy, NATO may slow the military drawdown, implying extended involvement. Foreign investors, especially China, could renege on their investment commitments if the Taliban continue taking new territory.

Security struggles will exacerbate violence in Mexico

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Deployments ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Although this scenario had already been contemplated in the official decree that established the GN in 2019, the new terms for military deployments are notably different. Impacts The government’s reliance on the military threatens the norms of democratic-civilian politics. The agreement signals the failure of the GN and of AMLO’s security strategy. A more powerful military will not translate into a more effective anti-crime strategy.

Poor leadership will hamper South African policing

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Public Trust ◽  
Police Force ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
A Priority ◽  
Police Commissioner

Subject South African Policing Significance Violent crime and insecurity are longstanding problems in South Africa. However, problems related to the appointments of senior police officials have contributed to the situation and resulted in corruption and mismanagement across South Africa’s police force. The appointment of a 30-year professional officer as police commissioner in late November was the first non-political appointment to this post since 1999. This has offered some hope that factionalism and corruption in the force’s upper ranks could be reversed under a new national president after President Jacob Zuma's departure. Impacts Crime could re-emerge as a major investor concern if insecurity rises ahead of the 2019 election. Public trust in the force's leadership is low and unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. The appointment of a respected National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) head will be a priority for new ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa.

Giammattei pledges reform in Guatemala

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Central American ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Tax Havens ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Right-wing Giammattei has pledged to introduce far-reaching reforms, focused on boosting economic growth and combating high rates of violent crime. However, legislative weaknesses and economic challenges look sure to undermine his policy efforts. Impacts Morales looks likely to avoid criminal corruption charges by being sworn into the Central American Parliament hours after leaving office. Plans to increase the size of the military may spark protests by human rights defenders. France’s removal of Guatemala from its list of tax havens this month will be a welcome early boost for the new president.

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