Russian president again pushes NATO threat narrative

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Russian President

Headline RUSSIA: Putin again pushes NATO threat narrative

Trump Warsaw visit will widen intra-European rifts

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Success ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Arms Exports ◽  
The Eu

Significance Poland is looking to forge closer ties with Washington to establish its leadership in CEE, counterbalance Franco-German dominance of the EU and present a united front against Russia. Other CEE countries are looking elsewhere for allies, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to Hungary demonstrates. Impacts Germany and Austria will move to maintain influence in CEE, probably through partnering with the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Russia will work to avoid any threat to its natural gas monopoly in CEE, with Bulgaria and Hungary its levers of influence. Trump will point to gas and arms exports to Poland as a US foreign policy success, though US hawks will remain sceptical about Russia.

Most Balkan states will now give up on South Stream

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Bargaining Power ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Russian President ◽  
South Stream ◽  
South Eastern Europe ◽  
Balkan States ◽  
The Eu

Significance In the weeks after the energy earthquake generated by Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement that Russia was cancelling plans to construct the South Stream gas pipeline across the Black Sea, tremors and aftershocks are still reverberating around South-Eastern Europe. Hopes that the announcement was a bluff intended to increase Russia's bargaining power with Brussels, or that South Stream can be revived, seem misconceived. Impacts Passing the blame for the cancellation onto the EU is unlikely to work, in part thanks to the way in which Putin broke the news. Russia will lose significant leverage over the participant countries, particularly those in Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. The biggest winner could be the EU, assuming it steps into the energy vacuum and helps countries secure alternative supply routes.

TurkStream will need Russian gas discount deal

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
New Deal ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
European Markets

Subject The Russo-Turkish intergovernmental TurkStream agreement. Significance An agreement signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on October 10 envisages a 31.5-billion-cubic-metres/year (bcm/y) natural gas transit line under the Black Sea and through Turkey to the Turkish-Greek border. One of two parallel pipes would supply 15.75 bcm/y gas to Turkey, replacing an existing pipeline. The second would export the same volume to European markets via a planned border 'hub' and export route yet to be announced. Impacts TurkStream's extra volume will increase Turkish dependence on Russian gas but allow more supply flexibility during peak winter demand. Delivering more Russian gas to Central-Eastern Europe will make it more difficult for other potential gas suppliers to secure market share. The agreement will bring Ankara and Moscow closer and may be followed by a new deal to restart the frozen Akkuyu nuclear plant.

Multipartner military exercises may become flashpoints

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Military Exercises ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Do So

Significance The exercise was described by NATO as a "show of force", while the Dutch foreign minister referred to it as "a warning" to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Multinational military exercises have become more frequent over the past 25 years. The United States participates in dozens of exercises annually and spends billions of dollars to do so. However, there are significant questions over the utility and purpose of such multinational exercises, which serve both a practical function for the militaries involved, as well as a diplomatic signaling effect. Impacts Like BALTOPS, regular exercises will assume greater salience when their regional focus sees new external threats. This could prompt policy changes from adversaries, as they attempt to respond to the exercises. As a result, exercises designed to deter may risk escalating tensions.

Low gas prices drive Turkmenistan to seek volume sales

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Security ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
Legal Action ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Turkmenistan's gas diplomacy. Significance Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov met Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 1 during his first visit to Russia since 2011. They reportedly discussed trade, regional security and most importantly bilateral gas arrangements. Russian energy giant Gazprom announced a week later that it had suspended legal action against its Turkmen counterpart Turkmengaz, but did not offer to resume gas purchases. Impacts A prolonged period of low gas prices would create risks to social stability. Turkmenistan's desire to mend fences with Russia will be constrained by its reluctance to join Moscow-led regional blocs. Russia and a resurgent Iran will try to blunt Turkmenistan's ambition to become a significant gas supplier to Europe.

Trump UK visit carries risks for May

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Military Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Significance The visit, sandwiched between the July 11-12 NATO Summit and July 16 meeting of Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki, returns UK Prime Minister Theresa May's trip to Washington in January 2017. Impacts The post-Brexit UK-EU deal could scupper a UK-US free trade deal. Trump’s visit may see some new UK-US business deals, and new security and military cooperation pledges. New UK Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt will need to build ties with Trump and his administration.

Compromise options yet to emerge in Ukraine talks

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Significance The first four-party summit in three years gave President Volodymyr Zelensky his first introduction to the 'Normandy format', and also to Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he also had a separate meeting. Zelensky was elected on a promise to bring peace but has been consistently warned by opponents that giving too much away would count as betrayal. In that sense the summit was a success for him: little was agreed but the atmospherics were positive. Impacts Progress on peace is unlikely to be fast enough to prevent EU sanctions on Russia, which run to June, being extended to end-December. Zelensky's success in not making concessions will reduce the intensity of domestic opposition, but not for long. The revival of talks creates space for Zelensky's team to focus on economic policy and governance.

Azerbaijan-Armenia dispute resolution faces disruption

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Significance Hosted in Sochi by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two leaders repeated past general commitments to stability, border demarcation and open transport communications. The clashes on November 15-16 were the largest, though not the first, military escalation since the 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku seems to be waging a campaign of attrition to force Yerevan to submit to its wishes. Impacts The resurgence in fighting close to where Russian peacekeepers are deployed highlights Moscow's limitations as rule-maker. Iran may increase its diplomatic support for a weakened Armenia in order to maintain a regional balance. Turkey will encourage or reject a possible rapprochement with Armenia, depending on what Azerbaijan does.

Hungary's trying to revive Western ties may fall short

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Short Interval ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central European ◽  
The Past ◽  
Tv Advertising ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Angela Merkel ◽  
Foreign Media ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Budapest's balancing between traditional and non-traditional ties. Significance Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently received two important visitors in Budapest: German Chancellor Angela Merkel (February 2) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (February 17). The short interval between them is symbolic of Hungary's foreign-policy balancing act. However, the Fidesz government's 'Eastern opening' strategy has increasingly shown its limits in the past year, prompting Orban to make gestures towards his Western allies. Impacts Central European allies are likely to distance themselves further from Hungary following Putin's visit to Budapest. Despite addressing discriminatory taxes on TV advertising, political control will continue to limit foreign media investments. Anti-Russian sentiment within Hungarian public opinion may open a window of opportunity for opposition parties.

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